Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/28/18

Welcome DFSR nation to another edition of Saturday MLB picks. As we work through the final weekend of April, we have plenty to consider. The day is split pretty evenly between early and main slate games, with FanDuel breaking the early games into two smaller slates, and if you want exposure to Philly/Atlanta, you'll have to do the all-day slate or the new showdown option on DraftKings. There's a couple of doubleheaders, some weak arms to target and while we have no real studs on the hill, there are still plenty of good arms to consider. Let's get down to the nitty gritty and check out the top picks, shall we?

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Pitcher

Carlos Carrasco FD 9600 DK 12400
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - CLE
FD - 38.16 DK - 20.58
We'll open things up today with Carlos Carrasco and the Indians hosting the Mariners. Carrasco is 4-0 through his first five starts of the season and would have that fifth win if not for lack of run support in a seven shutout inning performance against the Twins. After a rough opening against these same Mariners in Seattle when he got knocked for five earned runs in just 5.2 IP Carlos has settled into a nice groove, and currently sports one of the top xFIPs among starting pitchers through the first month of the season (3.55). While he's not throwing K's the same way he did last season (10.17 K/9 in 2017 compared to 7.20 to open this season), the number of K's is on the rise as he managed seven in each of his last two outings. The Mariners don't exactly strike out a ton either, which limits the appeal for Carrasco in tournaments. As a cash play, however, with the tribe as -224 favorites Carrasco is one of the safest plays of the day.

David Price FD 8000 DK 11100
Opponent - TB (Yonny Chirinos) Park - BOS
FD - 35.16 DK - 18.74
Another huge favorite in the eyes of Vegas is the Boston Red Sox at home against the Rays. Boston opens up as -208 favorites and David Price sees a favorable matchup. Despite the 2.93 ERA, the 4.44 xFIP tells a deeper story on Price through the first five starts of the season. Price has been all over the place in April, but his two best performances were a pair of starts against Tampa in which he threw back to back performances of seven shutout innings each. He has dominated against this Rays lineup who are striking out at a top ten clip (25.2% of the time) against southpaws. Like Carrasco, Price's numbers are down in the K/9 department, which makes tournament exposure a little risky, but given Tampa's tendency to swing and miss I'm open to the thought of Price in tournaments, though I'll likely use him mostly in cash games. You can certainly consider him in all formats though especially at that super low FanDuel price.

Lance McCullers Jr. FD 8800 DK 11200
Opponent - OAK (Daniel Mengden) Park - HOU
FD - 35.32 DK - 18.81
On the main slate, we have Lance McCullers Jr. who has been dominating to open the season. He's looking to close out April with a top ten xFIP (2.79/seventh overall coming into the day) while striking out 12.33 batters per nine. He has the pleasure of calling Minute Maid Park which has ranked as the friendliest pitchers park for the past two seasons his home and tonight will host the Athletics in town for a weekend set. Oakland has a .347 team wOBA to open the campaign, but they do strikeout 22.5% of the time. Through his first three-plus seasons in the majors, McCullers has limited opponents to just a .289 wOBA against at home. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts to the season and should have no trouble continuing that trend against the A's in a game that sees the Astros as -202 favorites. McCullers is a top play in all formats tonight, and like Price is an absolute bargain on FanDuel where the upside knows no limit.

First Base/Catcher

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3500 DK 4000
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - CLE
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.21
We've already looked at the Indians from the hill with Carlos Carrasco, and established the tribe as huge favorites against the Mariners. While Carrasco is a key part to that, the offense is expected to do just as much damage against Mike Leake, so prepare to see several Indians bats spotlighted here today. We'll start off with Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion came to Cleveland from Toronto last season, and after a sluggish start to the season he managed to end his first year in Cleveland with a .373 wOBA, 132 wRC+, .245 ISO, and .881 OPS. While it's been another slow start to 2018 things seem to be coming together for Double E, who has hit in seven straight games now with three home runs in his last four. Though slightly better against LHP, Encarnacion has nearly even splits over his career and should have little trouble against Leake who has been quite frankly terrible to open the 2018 season. Encarnacion should be a key part of any Cleveland stack and also makes for a strong standalone option in cash games as well.

Ryan Zimmerman FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - ARI (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 10.57 DK - 7.99
Usually, Patrick Corbin isn't a pitcher I go out of my way to target. He's allowed just seven earned runs to open the season in 33.1 IP and is throwing some nasty K stuff as well. However, the sites are still underpricing Ryan Zimmerman, and I am going to continue to consider him as a top bat at the position for bargain pricing until they decide to correct. The FanDuel pricing is silly at this point, but even on DraftKings, the chance to get a player that was top ten at the position in wOBA (.387), ISO (.269), HR (36), and OPS (.930) in 2017 just can't be ignored. Zimm struggled to open the season but has recently come around. He went yard twice last Wednesday in New York and has gone 8-22 in his last six games with three multi-hit efforts in that stretch. Again, Corbin can be tough, but this one is all about the price. If you need a value alternative to make your way out of the position, look no further than Zimm.

Evan Gattis FD 2700 DK 3100
Opponent - OAK (Daniel Mengden) Park - HOU
FD - 10.63 DK - 8.03
The Athletics are in Houston for the weekend, and tonight they will try to counter the Astros Lance McCullers Jr. with Daniel Mengden. Mengden, who has less than 30 starts under his belt, now in his third season is certainly not an arm we need to fear. Particularly not when facing one of the games most potent offenses. Houston has one of the best lineups against RHP in the game this season with a team wOBA of .334 and an OPS over .700. Evan Gattis has been getting a lot of time off lately but was back in the lineup last night for the series opener. If he is starting again tonight, he's an excellent value option in one of the lineups projecting for over five runs tonight. Gattis has hit safely in six of the last eight games he has started and hit his first home run of the season last weekend against the White Sox. If you're looking for value behind the plate, Gattis is the play.

Consider Willson Contreras Vs. MIL (Junior Guerra) and Wilmer Flores Vs. SD (Joey Luchessi)

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 4100 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Sal Romano) Park - MIN
FD - 13.78 DK - 10.37
If you've got the funds to spend at second base, then Brian Dozier is the way to go. Dozier and the Twins host the Reds this weekend, and Cincinnati will send Sal Romano to the hill for the sixth time this season. Romano has settled in some after some rough starts to open the season. His last two outings have seen him go 11 total innings allowing just three earned runs. Romano is still a guy with a career 4.63 xFIP who cant keep the ball in the yard, surrendering just under 2 HR/9. Brian Dozier meanwhile, has been a beast to kick things off this year with a .347 wOBA, .227 IOS and .788 OPS. He came off a tough series in the Bronx, going 1-16 against the Yankees, but opened the series against the Reds up with a 2-4 performance, a walk, and a run scored last night. Dozier's patience at the plate is also paying off huge, as evidenced by his 0.77 BB/K. Dozier is one of the safest plays in the game right now and even for the price he's a top play in cash games.

Jason Kipnis FD 3400 DK 3400
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - CLE
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.59
Like Edwin Encarnacion who we covered earlier, Jason Kipnis has struggled to get the season off right but has been looking much more comfortable in the box as of late. Kip saw an eight-game hitting streak come to an end earlier this week when he hit a three-game 0-11 skid, but is back on track with three hits in nine AB through the first two games of the series against Seattle. Kipnis comes into the day with a rather ugly .226 wOBA which is over 100 points below his career numbers, so we should be looking for some positive regression, and he is in a great spot today against Mike Leake who is allowing a .333 wOBA to the left side of the plate for his career. One of the most concerning things about Kipnis is the fact that he hasn't hit one out yet this season, though he's never been a power hitter, he's still overdue. Meanwhile Leake is surrendering a career-high 1.65 HR/9 through his first five starts. Even if he doesn't send one over the wall, Kipnis is still an excellent option to consider in an Indians stack, and the reasonable price presents for upside across the industry.

Matt Carpenter FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - PIT
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.23
On the main slate, we don't have to break the bank at second when we can get Matt Carpenter as a strong mid-tiered option against Trevor Williams and the Pirates. Carpenter took the night off last night against the southpaw, making just a pinch-hit appearance, but he should be back to his usual starting role in the leadoff spot tonight with a right-hander on the bump. Through his career, Carpenter sports a .373 wOBA against RHP along with an OPS over .850. Williams, to put it bluntly, isn't good. His career ERA and xFIP are each over 4.00, he doesn't K a ton, and he's walking nearly as many batters as he's striking out this season. Carpenter could be looking at a big day at the dish today, and I plan to have exposure to that.

Shortstop

Eduardo Nunez FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - TB (Yonny Chirinos) Park - BOS
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.51
The Rays will send Yonny Chirinos to the hill today against the Red Sox in Fenway for just his fifth career start. So, we have just a small sample size to go off of with Chirinos, but what we've seen so far is nothing we need to feel we should avoid. He's 0-1 with a 4.13 xFIP, strikes out just over seven batters per nine, and walks nearly three per nine. He's worse against right-handed hitters, and that's where we will target him with Eduardo Nunez. Nunez is too cheap on both sites, even in the bottom of the order. Especially given the fact he has a .324 wOBA against RHP in his career, along with a .750 OPS. He failed to make it out of the batter's box in four of his last eight games, but when he does, he tends to make big things happen. In the lower pricing tier, against a still wet behind the ears rookie, in one of the most storied hitters parks in the game, it's worth taking a shot on Nunez.

Francisco Lindor FD 4200 DK 4900
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - CLE
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.92
One final trip back to Cleveland as we talk leadoff with Francisco Lindor. Lindor is one of the hottest bats in the Cleveland lineup right now. He's homered twice in the past three games, is in the midst of a 13 game on-base streak, and was 3-5 at the dish last night coming a triple shy of the cycle. Lindor is the most expensive of the Cleveland bats we've looked at today, but it's hard to argue on the returns he has posted in just the past week alone. We've talked plenty about Mike Leake, and he's still that bad. He managed to limit Cleveland to just two earned runs in his season debut, but he did scatter eight base runners over seven IP and only managed four K's. He's also taking the hill today in Progressive field which favors the batters more than his own spacious Safeco Field. Considering the price I may not rock Lindor in cash games, but he will be in my Indians stacks guaranteed.

Corey Seager FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - SF (Undecided) Park - SF
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.08
The Dodgers and Giants will play a doubleheader today. It's looking like the Giants will run Johnny Cueto out to the hill for the second game. That is where we will be targeting Corey Seager. Cueto is 2-0 through four starts to the season with a 3.76 xFIP. Now in his eleventh season, Cueto is coming off a season in 2017 that saw him post his second highest xFIP and ERA of his career, with his hard hit rate hitting a career-high of nearly 35%. The left-handed hitting Seager has killer splits, hitting RHP to a career .379 wOBA, .196 ISO, and .891 OPS. Even in the spacious confines of AT&T Park, Seager should see plenty of opportunities to do some damage to the Giants veteran right-hander and is a reasonably priced option at the position.

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL (Junior Guerra) Park - CHC
FD - 14.18 DK - 10.61
Kris Bryant has been out of commission for nearly a week after taking a hit to the head against the Rockies on Sunday. He is expected to make his return to the lineup today as the Cubbies host the Brewers in Wrigley. Junior Guerra will take to the hill for Milwaukee. Guerra has allowed just one earned run over his first three starts to the season, but he's allowing a career .310 WOBA against to right-handed hitters, and he's sporting a 4.06 xFIP despite the 0.56 ERA. Before taking the pitch to the head, Bryant was riding on a nine-game on-base streak and will look to pick up where he left off this afternoon. Be sure to check the lineups, but if all goes according to plan, KB should be right back in that three hole, and if he is then lock him in.

Yangervis Solarte FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TOR
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.64
Bartolo Colon is pitching, and I've made it this far without targeting him. That simply can not stand. So let's make sure we get some exposure, and we'll start with Yangervis Solarte at the hot corner. Solarte came over to the Jays from San Diego and had instantly made an impact in the Toronto offense. HIs .362 wOBA is not only one of the best in Toronto; it's enough to rank him tenth overall at the position. The same can be said for his .841 OPS, while his .266 ISO is second overall. Colon, who as I predicted, followed his near no-no on the 15th, by giving up four earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Mariners will have his hands full once again against the Toronto lineup. Solarte has a career .771 OPS against RHP for his career, and his .333 wOBA and 112 wRC+ against the split make for a tremendous play if you don't have the funds to spend up on Bryant.

Alex Bregman FD 3900 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Daniel Mengden) Park - HOU
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.47
The Astros were one of the top offenses in 2017 and this year is looking to be more of the same. Their 127 runs scored is fifth most in the game through the first month of the season, they've got a .332 team wOBA and an OPS near .750. A key piece to that is their third baseman, Alex Bregman. Now in his second full season, Bregman continues to impress, opening the season with a .325 wOBA, 106 wRC+, and .718 OPS. Daniel Mengden has been terrible against the right side of the dish this season, allowing a .365 wOBA and his career numbers don't suggest much better. Our MLB lineup projection system loves Bregman tonight from both raw points, and points per dollar perspective, and on the main slate, he's looking to be among the safest ways to go in cash games.

Outfield

Ian Happ FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Junior Guerra) Park - CHC
FD - 13.02 DK - 9.83
We'll start off the outfield with another Cubs bat. We spotlighted Kris Bryant a moment ago at the hot corner, and we can pair him with Ian Happ to gain a little more Chicago exposure while balancing out the cost with Happ being a strong value play. Happ is following up an impressive rookie campaign with a solid sophomore start. He's got a .320 wOBA, .729 OPS, and his .180 ISO is one of the best on the team. Junior Guerra has had a strong start to the season, but he hasn't faced any formidable offenses yet. The Marlins and Reds are worlds apart from the Cubs. Chicago will test him today, and early returns from Vegas suggest he will fail miserably. Pair Happ with Bryant as part of a Cubs mini-stack, or use him solo for value as a fantastic option in cash games.

Curtis Granderson FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TOR
FD - 12.88 DK - 9.64
Let's take one more shot at Bartolo Colon before we wrap this thing up. Who can pair with Yangervis Solarte, who we just covered earlier against Bartolo? The Grandyman can. Curtis Granderson, like Solarte, came over to Toronto in the offseason and is making an immediate impact. His .434 wOBA is not only the best on the Jays; it's ranked seventh among all outfielders. Now in his fourteenth season, Granderson is showing no signs of slowing down with a .250 ISO and 1.004 OPS. All of that for just $3K on FanDuel is too good to pass on, and even for $4K on DraftKings, as cash game options go, Granderson is one of the safest plays going.

J.D. Martinez FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - TB (Yonny Chirinos) Park - BOS
FD - 14.37 DK - 10.78
J.D. Martinez is historically much better against southpaws for his career, but he still sports a .358 wOBA against RHP and is off to a monster start against right-handers this season with a .408 wOBA and .973 OPS in 68 AB against the split. He should destroy the young Chirinos tonight in a game that Vegas has Boston projected for over five runs. Martinez is off to a ridiculous start to the campaign with a .389 wOBA, 142 wRC+ and his five HR are second on the Sox to just Mookie Betts (who you can also consider in the OF). J.D. won't come cheap, but he's one of the strongest plays of the night with a solid floor and huge upside, you can consider him everywhere, and I for one will be doing just that.

Adam Jones FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - BAL
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.53
Trey Mancini FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - BAL
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.36
We'll wrap things up today with a look at a pair of Baltimore outfielders at home against the Tigers Francisco Liriano. Trey Mancini has been hot at the plate to open the season, with a .312 wOBA, and .700 OPS. He's also drawing a walk for every two K's, while four of his last five hits have gone for extra bases. Adam Jones meanwhile has gotten off to a less impressive start, he's sporting a .301 wOBA while walking just under 2% of the time. The pair sees a strong matchup today however against Liriano, who has struggled against right-handed hitters throughout his career, allowing a .321 wOBA against to the split, walking 2% more on the right side, and surrendering more than twice as many home runs. Mancini sets the table for the O's while Jones cleans up, and both are bargains across the industry in a stellar matchup.

Thanks for reading, and good luck out there tonight. As always, feel free to leave any questions or comments below, and if you still haven't signed up for a trial of our projection system then get to clicking on that red banner. You'll thank me later. Cheers!

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