New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom works against a Los Angeles Dodgers batter during the first inning in Game 5 of baseball's National League Division Series Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)
Welcome to Friday baseball! We have all 30 teams playing today, with 14 games on the main slate and one early bout. It’s one of the more interesting slates in some time and is definitely one that should excite you as an MLB DFS’er. Let's dive in!
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Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - SD
FD - 39.78 DK - 21.5
It gets interesting early on with pitcher being very difficult. On the high-end, you have Kluber, DeGrom, Severino, and Strasburg. They’re honestly all in play and nobody would be surprised to see any of them have a huge game. As for us, we’ll be highlighting Kluber and DeGrom. DeGrom stands out for me, hosting one of the worst teams in baseball in the San Diego Padres. Even after two long series in Coors Field, they rank 25th in baseball against righties with a .309 team wOBA and pitiful 29% strikeout rate. The best lefty on the team is Eric Hosmer, telling you more than you need to know. They’re implied to score just 3.11 runs, so Vegas does think DeGrom turns the lights out here. He’s safe in all formats and has immense upside given the match-up. He’ll be the guy you find in most of my lineups.
Opponent - SEA (Erasmo Ramirez) Park - CLE
FD - 44 DK - 24.19
If you’re unsure about DeGrom or just want to go with the best pitcher, Corey Kluber is the guy. Not only is Kluber one of the three best pitchers in baseball, he may be the best for DFS right now. He’s an absolute workhorse, going for 7 innings in every game and reaching 8 innings twice in just 5 games. He’s controlling every at-bat and seems to be coasting when on the mound. He’s sported a combined wOBA allowed under .230 against both sides of the plate and he’s striking out 9.16 batters per 9 innings. Tonight, he faces off with the Seattle Mariners at home in Progressive Field. The Mariners rank just 19th in baseball against righties, sporting a .312 wOBA and .298 OBP. They aren’t a huge strikeout team, but you don’t have to be when facing Kluber. He has it covered. The match-up isn’t quite as good as the Padres and DeGrom, but Kluber is the best pitcher on this slate and is at home against a weak lineup. You can’t go wrong either way.
Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - BOS
FD - 32.79 DK - 16.91
Pomeranz struggled somewhat in his first start, giving up 3 earned runs and lasting 3.2 innings. I only say somewhat because he struck out 7 batters in 3 innings. The “stuff” is obviously still there and it’ll just be a case of ironing out the wrinkles. He gets to face off with the Tampa Bay Rays, who have one of the saddest lineups in all of the league. They’ve actually been about league-average in terms of wOBA against righties, but they hold a league-high .331 BABIP and a 26% strikeout rate. Pomeranz also seems to thrive at home. In 2017, he posted a 9+ K/9 and finished the season with a 3.64 xFIP. He’s one of the more promising young arms in the game and I expect that curveball to have the Rays leaning tonight. I fully expect myself to pay up at pitcher, but Pomeranz is the route I’d go if forced.
Opponent - MIN (Phil Hughes) Park - MIN
FD - 11.85 DK - 8.84
We open up the bats with one of the easier plays on the entire slate. When first glancing at this slate, you have to notice the Reds match-up with Phil Hughes. Hughes, who’s now 31 years old, gave up a .457 wOBA to lefties and 7 home runs in less than 20 innings. A .412 wOBA the year before suggests we’re looking at pretty accurate numbers. Facing off with a pretty dangerous Reds lineup, Joey Votto is the man to target. As one of the best bats in the game, he’s held a .400+ wOBA against righties for years. Target Field is pretty friendly and Vegas thinks the Reds put up some healthy runs. Votto is the top choice at first base and where I’ll be going every single time if I can pay up.
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - SD
FD - 10.56 DK - 8.09
The Mets aren't necessarily a team we're all over on this slate, but you can target one or two of these Mets with ease. You'll want to target a power righty, whether it's Wilmer Flores, Yoenis Cespedes, or Todd Frazier. Flores is my favorite of the bunch as a guy that just demolishes lefties. In 2017, he sported a .351 wOBA and hit 18 total home runs. He was even better the season before with a wOBA that eclipsed .400. He faces off with Clayton Richard tonight, who allowed a .377 wOBA to righties in 2017. Petco Park won't help Flores or any hitter for that matter, but Richard was somehow worse there last season, so there's that. Flores is fairly priced on both sites and makes sense in all formats as a pivot off of Joey Votto. I'll still have as much Votto as I can possibly fit.
Opponent - SEA (Erasmo Ramirez) Park - CLE
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.29
There’s no getting around the Indians as one of the top offenses on this slate. They’re facing off with Erasmo Ramirez, who’s fresh off the DL with a lat sprain. He struggled mightily in his first start, striking out just one player over 4.2 innings and giving up 2 homers on 5 runs. Over the past year, he’s given up a .346 wOBA to lefties and has shown no signs of getting better. He’ll now face one of the better offenses in baseball and certainly one of the more lethal to righties. Kipnis alone isn’t very scary, but he’s going to be slotted in between the likes of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. His price is cheap and the upside is there by default. Kipnis is a great play in all formats and a guy you’ll find on almost all of my teams.
Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - MIA
FD - 8.44 DK - 6.57
Starlin Castro has actually been pretty disappointing this season all things considered. I think a whole lot of it has to do with the lineup around him. In New York, he was forced to see pitches. In Miami, he’s the guy opposing pitchers are focused on and are therefore throwing everything he struggles with. He will get over the curve and turn back into the Starlin Castro we’re all used to. In ‘17, Castro sported a .358 wOBA against lefties and a 24% line drive rate. He faces off with Tyler Anderson, who’s allowed a .358 wOBA to opposing righties. He also is far worse on the road than in Coors Field, even though that makes just about no sense. The Marlins are expected to put up 4+ runs tonight and Starlin Castro should play a big role. I also think he goes way under-owned. This is a stretch, but I have Castro picking up his first dinger of the season.
Opponent - SEA (Erasmo Ramirez) Park - CLE
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.58
We’ll kick off shortstop with another Cleveland Indians bat. When they’re facing Erasmo Ramirez coming off of an arm injury, it’s hard not to. When healthy, he’s bad. Right now, he could be one of the worst around. He missed just 3 bats over 4.2 innings. 3! That’s a blasphemous number. When you combine that with a .346 wOBA allowed to lefties, the Indians are obvious. Lindor specifically, has been great against righties since entering the majors. In 2017, he held a modest .341 wOBA and smashed 33 home runs. He’s one of the more powerful middle infielders in all of the game and brings a ton of upside because of it.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TOR
FD - 8.03 DK - 6.19
If you’re not a fan of Francisco Lindor or he’s just a tad bit expensive, you can certainly pivot to a cheap Aledmys Diaz. Diaz was really not that good in 2017, but we know he’s a solid youngster and he’s already begun bouncing back. So far for the Jays, he already has 4 homers and is seeing pitches a lot better. There’s a lot of polishing to go, but the power is prevalent and the price is dirt cheap. The Jays get to face off with Mike Minor tonight, who’s not a very good pitcher. He had a good 2017, but his peripherals don’t believe it for a second. He’s already started struggling against righties this year and should have some more issues in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Diaz is cheap and volatile, but he should go under 20% owned and who’ll help you pay up elsewhere. If you happen to get a homer, you’re miles ahead of the field. If you don’t and Lindor goes off, you’ll have to catch up somewhere. Personally, I’ll have a bit of both, but am leaning Lindor and paying down somewhere else(OF or 3B).
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SF
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.64
It may seem weird to see Kike Hernandez name at the top of third base, but it’s the odd reality we’re living in. He’s still the same guy we’ve been targeting in the OF for years. A lefty masher with a price always too cheap. When I say lefty masher, I mean it. Hernandez posted a .390 wOBA against opposing lefties and is a real threat against them. Not some herky-jerky platoon guy that can be taken down with some research. Hernandez is a legitimate lethal hitter against lefties, and he’s far too cheap. He gets to face off with Derek Holland, who’s as bad as it gets against righty bats. Over the last year, Holland has allowed a .408 wOBA and 26 home runs to righties in just 103 innings. Yikes. Go ahead and target him on both sites in all formats. The only concern is getting pinch-hit for, but I don’t think it’s worth worrying about at the price.
Opponent - MIN (Phil Hughes) Park - MIN
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.79
This is probably the only time you’ll find me targeting Eugenio Suarez against a righty. This is a guy that murders lefties and is one of my favorite DFS targets, but we have a special scenario tonight. Suarez is $2000 on FanDuel. Play him. We’ve already looked at Phil Hughes and just how terrible of a pitcher he is. While certainly better against righties, a .323 wOBA allowed with disastrous peripherals is nothing at all to worry about. Suarez himself held a .343 wOBA against righties, so he’s not exactly an extremely platoon guy. He’s just insane against lefties and solid against righties. He’ll be right behind he likes of Joey Votto and Adam Duvall, so expect at least one or two RBI opportunities. Let’s get to the outfield!
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SF
FD - 10.5 DK - 7.98
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SF
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.12
The Dodgers are a team that’s always a bit weird to target. They always seem to put up runs, but it's hard to know where they'll come from. I could have also went Puig here, but Kemp and Taylor are personally my favorites. Facing off with Derek Holland, they’ll get plenty of pitches to hit. As I just touched on, Holland has been exploited for a .408 wOBA against righties. He’s legitimately one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. He’ll be saved a few times by the ballpark tonight, but AT&T Park can only do so much. While Kemp struggled against lefties last season, he’s a historic lefty masher and is right back to a .525 wOBA this season. As for Chris Taylor, he posted a .355 wOBA against right-handers over the last year and should be in the leadoff hole. Both of these guys have better match-ups than they will for most of the season and if there’s ever a time to target them, this is it.
Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - BOS
FD - 14.19 DK - 10.64
We’ve avoided the Red Sox up to this point, but we all know they can do damage against anyone, let alone a young lefty. I could have also included Mookie Betts here, but Martinez is the true lefty smasher and my favorite of the bunch. In 2017, Martinez sported a stupid .531 wOBA against lefties, sitting next to Arenado in Coors as the only real comparison. He’s going to benefit greatly with the green monster and you can expect Snell to struggle in hostile Fenway. Snell wasn’t bad in 2017, holding a .320 wOBA against righties with 15 homers allowed. Vegas thinks the Red Sox put a charge into Snell tonight and Martinez is the leading candidate. He’s going to cost you a ton, but should come in around just 10% owned and has 2-HR upside on any given night.
Opponent - SEA (Erasmo Ramirez) Park - CLE
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.61
We’re going to close things off with another Cleveland Indian. He’s always been phenomenal against righties and you’ll often find him sporting a .400-.450 wOBA against them. He gets to match-up with Erasmo Ramirez, who we’ve touched on plenty. He not only allowed a .346 wOBA to lefties in ‘17, but he’s returning from injury and looking worse than ever. The Indians are expected to put a beating on Ramirez and Michael Brantley should be in the cleanup hole. He’s right up there with J.D. Martinez, but in a much different way. He’s a cash game gem, while Martinez can hit 2 homers or strikeout 4 times. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below with any questions or thoughts!
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