Mets at Orioles 8/19/15
We already highlighted Carlos Martinez and Chris Sale in our 4/26/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - STL (Carlos Martinez) Park - STL
FD - 37.12 DK - 20.62
When I wrote up the picks last night the Cardinals opened as slight favorites which had CarMart at the top of the raw points projections. This morning that shifted and now Thor is now up at the top. Martinez is the still the favored option on FanDuel where the price gap is a little bigger giving him the PTS/$ edge the optimizer loves to see but on DraftKings where the price is closer, it wants to jam Syndergaard in as the Mets are slight favorites. Like I said in the main article, there is a case to be made for both as they are both off to excellent starts. Thor sits behind only Patrick Corbin with an elite 1.95 xFIP and the upside has also been through the roof as he is currently striking out 12.84 per nine innings with an incredible 15.7% swinging strike rate. The Cards have been better against right-handed pitching so far this season but like they say, good pitching shuts down good hitting. If you play both sites, hedge your bets and use Thor on DraftKings and CarMart on FanDuel and even consider pairing them together on DraftKings.
Opponent - TB (Chris Archer) Park - TB
FD - 36.78 DK - 18.65
We have another potential pitchers duel on the main slate as Dylan Bundy and the Orioles are -124 favorites to the visiting Tampa Bay Rays and Chris Archer. Despite the lack of run support(2.00 per start), Dylan Bundy has been near elite to start the season for the O's as he is second to only Max Scherzer in WAR(wins above replacement) in while that doesn't help in fantasy, strikeouts do. He sits with a 1.42 ERA on the season and is producing an 11.37 K/9 rate with an even better 17.4% swinging strike rate. Whoa! The matchup even lines up as the Rays are just an average team at the plate this season when looking at wOBA and wRC+ and are currently striking out at 23% rate. I don't think we need to veer away from Sale in cash games but Bundy makes an excellent GPP target tonight.
Atlanta Braves vs. Homer Bailey(CIN)
Opponent - CIN (Homer Bailey) Park - CIN
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.64
Opponent - CIN (Homer Bailey) Park - CIN
FD - 14.08 DK - 2.17
Opponent - CIN (Homer Bailey) Park - CIN
FD - 11.53 DK - 8.96
Opponent - CIN (Homer Bailey) Park - CIN
FD - 9.56 DK - 7.35
I talked about both sides of this game in the main article but prefer the Braves as my top stack on the early slate. They currently sit with the second-highest implied runs(4.79) in the system behind the Yankees and have a terrific matchup vs. "Homer" Bailey. I air quoted that for a reason folks, he gives up a ton of long balls and has recorded a 10% or greater HR/FB rate in eight straight seasons. He has looked good in two of his five starts this year but has given up four long balls in the other three and will never scare a team with his K upside(6.14 K/9). He has also given up a combined 44.6% hard contact and shockingly it has been worse against right-handed bats(57.1%). Either way you look at it, stacking the Braves is a high upside play that comes at a discount from the Yankees which is ideal on this smaller slate.
Kansas City Royals vs. Lucas Gioltio(CWS)
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 11.5 DK - 9
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 12.36 DK - 9.39
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.51
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.67
The Royals offense is definitely not one we are going to write home to mom about but that doesn't mean we can pick them out on a given day in a plus matchup. One of those matchups is tonight as he faces a struggling Lucas Giolito who is coming off a disaster of a start where he walked seven Astros and was touched up for nine earned runs. While that is probably not going to happen again, the rest of his starts weren't great either as he allowed 11 earned runs over those three starts while walking 12 and striking out just eight.
I am not a fan of Jon Jay even if he is leading off again so instead I will turn to a two through five stack for the Royals tonight centered around Mike Moustakas. He leads the team in almost all categories including wOBA(.396), wRC+(150), home runs(7), and RBI(18). Merrifield has al been solid(wrote about him in the main article) and I also favor going with Salvador Perez if he is back in the cleanup spot. He is back off the DL and already has a home run and actually showed stronger splits vs. right-handed pitching in 2017. Finally, I will add Lucas Duda to the stack and while he has been very inconsistent, he rakes against right-handed pitching(.375 wOBA/135 wRC+).
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