Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the New York Mets during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's National League Division Series, Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Welcome to Wednesday baseball! We have a full day of games on our hands, but the main slate doesn’t start until 7 PM EST. There are nine games on the slate and nothing is all that cut and dry.
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Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - LAD
FD - 50.52 DK - 28.37
Expect Clayton Kershaw to be the unanimous top pitcher of the night and one of the betters plays of the year so far. The Dodgers are sitting at -370 favorites, which is easily the highest on the season and it really doesn’t get any more extreme. The Marlins are projected for just over two runs and it’ll be interesting to see if they can even get one. Kershaw is still the same pitcher he always has been, sporting a .250 combined wOBA with a 10+ K/9. The Marlins are the worst offense in baseball and should be targeted on a regular basis.this is baseball and weirder things happen every day, but I’d be shocked if Kershaw doesn’t just coast through this order for 7 or 8 innings and pick up 10 K’s and a win.
Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - PHI
FD - 35.95 DK - 18.65
There’s a cut and dry top play on this slate in Clayton Kershaw. I just want to be clear in saying that if you can afford him, play him. He can’t be in a better spot than this and it’s hard to find any spot as safe as this in baseball. With that being said, there are times to pay down and look for a bit of value. Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke will face off in Citizens Bank Park, with Arrieta the current favorite. The Diamondbacks are a whole lot worse on the road and can get dominated by righties, sporting a .308 team wOBA and a 27% strikeout rate. Arrieta on the other hand has turned things around and is looking like the ace we’re used to. He was bad against lefties in 2017 but worked on it in the offseason and it looks like his demons may have been conquered. Remember, this is a very smart pitcher that was able to change his game and win a Cy Young after failing numerous times. If there’s a guy who can adjust his game, it’s Jake Arrieta. He went 7 innings with 10 K’s last time out and will look to provide an encore to his home fans in Philly. If you need to pay way down, Jacob Faria is the only guy I would consider. I just have a hard time being behind so many points at pitcher with a surefire arm like Kershaw at the top.
On the early slate you are basically choosing between Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in the upper tier. Both are excellent but I'll take Scherzer in a better matchup against the Giants. For DraftKings, I actually think you can consider Jon Gray in Coors (and yes, I'm aware that went poorly last time around).
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - LAD
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.27
Clayton Kershaw can only have so much to do with a -370 line. While a little league lineup might still sit around -200, Vegas thinks these guys put up a few runs against Trevor Richards. Richards has struggled as a rookie, giving up 13 earned runs through 18 innings of work. The Dodgers are one of the tougher offenses he has faced and will come at him from a ton of different directions. Richards has struggled against both sides of the plate to start, but certainly profiles as much worse against lefties. Cody Bellinger boasted a .383 wOBA against righties in 2017 and has more hen backed it up to start this season. He’ll more than likely hit 30 home runs again and be one of the more productive 1B in baseball. Tonight, he’s a top play at the position and one of the leading candidates on the slate for a homer.
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 11.69 DK - 8.69
The Athletics are a team that's pretty weird to target. They have a ton of power bats and can have a huge night, but they seem to disappoint in a lot of good spots. Tonight, they face off with an atrocious righty in Doug Fister. Fister gave up a .365 wOBA to lefties in '17 and he's only getting worse with age and decreased velocity. Olson certainly over-performed at times in 2017, but he is an elite power hitter. Against righties, he's sported a .408 wOBA and has hit 23 homers in just 87 games. He's way too cheap on FanDuel and fairly priced on DraftKings, putting him in play in all formats. I like Bellinger a bit more as a stand-alone, but will have more Athletics stacks and therefore more Olson at 1B. He's a lot easier to fit with Kershaw on FD.
Opponent - BOS (Eduardo Rodriguez) Park - TOR
FD - 8.92 DK - 6.66
If you need a catcher on DraftKings or just want to switch things up on FanDuel, Russell Martin is a solid option in all formats. The Blue Jays are facing off with Eduardo Rodriguez, who posted a 4.37 xFIP against righties in 2017. Martin isn’t anywhere near the hitter he once was, but still prefers lefties and will sit right in the heart of a lineup that’s expected to put up over 4.5 runs. Martin is extremely cheap on both sites and will help you pay up elsewhere will give you plenty of upside himself. If you’re able to pay up at catcher, Yasmani Grandal seems like an easy choice against a weak lefty in Trevor Richards.
Early - Daniel Vogelbach, Marwin Gonzalez
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.21
We’ve already looked at Matt Olson at first and these Athletics are one of the top offenses on the entire slate. Facing off with Doug Fister, you can target bats from both sides of the plate. He was much worse against lefties in 2017 with a .365 wOBA and pitiful 4.36 BB/9. The A’s don’t have a ton of lefties, but the ones they have are cheap and typically productive. We have Jed Lowrie here at second base, who’s going to be in the 3 hole of an offense with a 5+ implied total. Lowrie posted a .353 wOBA against righties in 2017 and smacked 14 total homers. He’s cheap on all sites and can be played in any and all formats.
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - PIT
FD - 7.76 DK - 5.87
If you need to pay down at second, you certainly have a couple options. With Josh Harrison on the DL, it’ll be Sean Rodriguez who slides in there for the start. He’s always been a lefty specialist and posted a .336 wOBA against them in ‘17. He also has a lot more power than the average second baseman, getting up to 18 homers last season. Against a bad lefty in Matt Boyd, Rodriguez should be plenty low owned and in a good enough spot to play in all formats. It’s just come to my attention that Jordan Zimmerman may be getting the start for Matt Boyd. If he does, I like Rodriguez considerably less and would go to Eric Sogard for 2B savings.
Early - Robinson Cano
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - LAD
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.46
The Dodgers are a team you can stack and find a guy at almost every position. Facing off with Trevor Richards, you know exposure is close to a must. We looked at Cody Bellinger at 1B, but I’m also a big fan of Grandal, Puig, and Pederson. Trevor Richards, as we’ve touched on, is an inexperienced right-handed that has struggled against both sides of the plate. He profiles as a guy that has the upside to turn into a number 3 or 4 starter, but that’s about as bad as it gets. He’s going to struggle with the lethal Dodgers lineup and I don’t plan on being off them as a whole. Seager and Bellinger are elite as can as it gets, but don’t forget about Utley and Joc if you need savings.
Opponent - BOS (Eduardo Rodriguez) Park - TOR
FD - 6.77 DK - 5.22
If you’re not a fan of an expensive Corey Seager or just need to find a way to pay down, Aledmys Diaz is in a spectacular spot. Facing off with Eduardo Rodriguez, the Jays will have as many righties in the lineup as possible.Diaz struggled in each of his first two seasons, but profiles as a guy that will hit southpaws well. He’s already started this season nicely and will be right behind the big bats of this order, so expect at least a couple RBI opportunities. Facing off with Rodriguez, he allowed a .340 combined wOBA in 2017. Nobody gets excited about rostering Aledmys Diaz, but he opens up salary elsewhere and gives you a ton of upside against a homer-prone Eduardo Rodriguez.
Early - Trea Turner
Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - KC
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.6
The Royals offense isn’t very good in the first place and in this match-up, we’re only looking for the lefties. Jhoulys Chacin is a classic extreme splits pitcher, giving up a .350+ wOBA to lefties and shutting down righties at a .266 clip. He's a guy you want to target lefties against as he doesn't just struggle but gives up a ton of homers. Fortunately, we have one stud in Mike Moustakas to target. He’s right back to his 2017 self with 6 homers to start the year and a current .480 wOBA. It’ll fall back down towards the .350-.370 we’re used to and we should see another 35+ HR season. Moustakas is expensive, but you can target him in all formats on this slate.
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.54
We’ll remain in Kansas City here and focus on Travis Shaw, who’s in a pretty similar spot to Mike Moustakas. Shaw gets to face off with Jason Hammel, who’s all but washed up. He gave up a .330 combined wOBA in 2017 and is only trending downwards. As for Shaw, he was elite against righties in 2017, sporting a .383 wOBA and clocking 26 total home runs off of them. I don’t love this ballpark, but Vegas has these guys putting up 4+ runs and Shaw is the main man from the left side and will be in the 3 or 4 hole. Jason Hammel is expected to struggle tonight and Travis Shaw should be one of the big reasons why.
Early - Kyle Seager, Ryan McMahon
Opponent - OAK (Kendall Graveman) Park - TEX
FD - 0.13 DK - 0.1
Opponent - OAK (Kendall Graveman) Park - TEX
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.63
The Rangers are another team that you can easily stack and will be pretty popular on this slate. You can go with a Joey Gallo at first or Beltre at third, but the outfield is where the real goods are. We're focusing on just DeShields and Choo, but Mazara and Drew Robinson are in play as well if they are in the heart of the order. They face off with Kendall Graveman, who has been a lot worse against righties than lefties. Over the past two seasons, he's allowed a .365 wOBA to right-handers and is moving from a spacious Oakland Coliseum to a hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. This game is currently holding a 10.5 over/under, so you can see why it's been highlighted so much. Let's move on to another team we haven't touched on.
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 8.13 DK - 6.33
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 8.37 DK - 6.38
We’ve somehow ignored the Tampa Bay Rays up to this point, but that just speaks a lot more on how bad the lineup is than it does the match-up. Facing Alex Cobb, you really can target anyone. He had a productive 2017 season, but has been of the leagues worst pitchers to begin this campaign. If you are looking for some Rays to target, make it these two in the outfield. Denard Span may not have much power upside for an outfielder, but the speed is there and a .373 wOBA against righties is great. He also hit 12 homers last year, so he has more power than most think. Carlos Gomez is always a tournament option that will swing for the fences no matter the pitcher. With such a low strikeout rate, there's a good shot Gomez makes contact. I slightly prefer Span, but Gomez makes sense in all formats if the roster mold fits.
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.7
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 13.45 DK - 10.04
We haven’t really focused much on the Athletics, but they’re easily one of my favorite offenses on the slate. If you’re looking to stack, grab the lefties and play it safe, or grab 2 lefties and 2 righties and hope Fister is out of there early. Here in the outfield, we have two very different options in Matt Joyce and Khris Davis. Joyce has always been consistent against righties and kept it going in ‘17 with a .360 wOBA. As for Khris Davis, he’s just a pure slugger. He hit 36 home runs and posted a .369 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2017. The A’s also move from the Oakland Coliseum to Globe Life Park, which is a huge upgrade for hitting. There are always a lot of options in the outfield, but this could certainly make it work.
Early - Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon, Bryce Harper
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