Daily Fantasy NBA Playoff Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Round 1 4/22/18

Another Sunday in the NBA, and another 4 game playoff slate. It's the most wonderful time of the year! It's an intriguing slate with a couple of teams changing up their starting rosters and a few others being involved in blowouts, so let's see what we can uncover!

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Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Celtics lead series 2-1
Milwaukee came back with a vengeance in what was perhaps the most confusing game to break down for this write-up. Not only was it a blowout, but both the Bucks and Celtics changed up their starting lineups considerably for this one. This game isn't playable on FanDuel at the moment, but this one still matters for DraftKings.

Let's start with the Celtics. While the Celtics' starters played reduced minutes across the board, it's still quite likely that the plan for them hasn't changed much, leaving Al Horford (DK $6900), Jayson Tatum (DK $6200), Terry Rozier (DK $7000), and Jaylen Brown (DK $6700) as reasonable plays today. The big loser was pretty obviously Marcus Morris, who was relegated to the bench - but what of Aron Baynes? He played 29 minutes in spite of the blowout, but the Celtics also failed pretty spectacularly here. If he does get named the starter I'll be happy to run him, but I won't be speculating there otherwise.

The Bucks swapped in Tyler Zeller (DK $3500) and Malcolm Brogdon (DK $4500), but neither made a huge impact. It's hard to say what the plan was for either of these guys from a minutes perspective, but given that all the starters lost minutes in the blowout it's fairly safe to assume each of them was in line for at least a few more. Neither had a big fantasy impact at all, and while Brogdon might have played 35 minutes he wasn't a big part of the offensive plan. If I had to play some Bucks in a pretty bad match-up, Bledsoe, Middleton, and Giannis all seem like reasonable cash game filler.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers

Pacers lead the series 2-1
After a dicey game 2, the Cavs seemed to revert back to their game 1 jitters, and gave away a very winnable game to fall behind 2-1. Kevin Love (FD $7700 DK $7200) and LeBron James (FD $12200 DK $11900) were out there for a combined 80 minutes, but both were a bit underwhelming on their current prices in spite of what on paper should be an excellent match-up. I still think they are reasonable cash game plays on this slate if only because of the slight price reduction, but yikes. You expect to see more boards out of Love and fewer turnovers out of LeBron, so I think I can comfortably green light those guys.

As for the rest of the Cavs, yikes. Hill and Korver started, but neither topped 23 minutes. J.R. Smith (FD $3600 DK $4100) certainly paid his $3,600 price tag, but he needed all 35 minutes. Still, he looks to be the safest of the cheap value guys from Cleveland.

The good game 3 performances on Indiana were limited to Thaddeus Young (FD $6200 DK $5000) and Bojan Bogdanovic (FD $5600 DK $5200), both of who paid 5x points per dollar on their current prices. The minutes and opportunity seem to be there, and both look like high floor cash game options to me. Our system still likes Victor Oladipo (FD $9800 DK $8700) in spite of an underwhelming game 3, and that comes down to the minutes and his match-ups. The Cavs can't seem to decide what they want to do defensively against him, and he should be a lock for 39+ minutes once again.

Myles Turner (FD $6000 DK $5300) is a strong center play on the back of two good games so far this series, even if it is a little troubling to see him lose 3-5 minutes based solely on ineffectiveness. It's not reassuring to know his minutes are negotiable based on performance, though it is understandable against a Cavs team that doesn't require its opponents to have a strong defensive center.

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards

Raptors lead series 2-1
The Wizards flipped the script on the Raptors in game 3 thanks to a HUGE performance from John Wall (FD $10500 DK $9900), who has now topped 60 fantasy points in two of the three games in this series so far. He's looking every bit the $10,000 player, and he'll need to be if the Wiz are going to hang in a series that was looking pretty lopsided before this one. The Wizards' success might be less about Wall, and more about Bradley Beal (FD $7900 DK $7300). Beal returned from obscurity to put up 46 fantasy points, and finally looked like Robin to Wall's Batman. I am a believer in Beal for cash games going forward.

I'm a lot less certain about the Wizards' other pieces. We've seen Gortat flash excellent upside on his current prices, but we've also seen him play 12 minutes and score 3.6 fantasy points. Porter and Markieff played reduced minutes in game 3, and while it's tempting to blame the blowout, it didn't affect Wall and Beal nearly as much. Gortat, Porter, and Morris all seem like tournament-only plays to me.

On the Raptors' side of the ball, it's a little tougher to learn a lot from this game. Fred Vanvleet was a late scratch, and while many thought Delon Wright would build upon his already respectable minutes, he played just 19. CJ Miles played 23 minutes, but it's unclear how much of that was the blowout and how much of that was the plan.

The rest of the Raptors' starters just look underwhelming to me on their current prices, but both Lowry and DeRozan look like high floor options to me.

Golden State Warriors at the San Antonio Spurs

Warriors lead series 3-0
Is it all over but the shouting in this series? Sure looks like it. The Spurs are coming off their best performance in this series - a 13 point loss in game 3 - and another game where we saw them return next to no fantasy value in spite of this being a pretty fast match-up. The Leonard-less Spurs are just outclassed here, and while it'd be pretty surprising if they didn't just leave their best players in for the duration here, it's not clear that they even know who their best players are. I think Rudy Gay (FD $6400 DK $5900) and Patty Mills (FD $4900 DK $4800) are solid value plays, and that LaMarcus Aldridge (FD $9500 DK $9000) has upside if you think the Spurs try to make their last stand here. Still, it's not a very enticing menu of DFS plays.

On the Warriors side, the only two plays I'm looking closely at are Draymond Green (FD $7600 DK $7700) and Kevin Durant (FD $10900 DK $10100). Durant rolled his ankle in game 3, but practiced on Friday and should be at full strength here. Given the Warriors' ongoing injury woes I wouldn't be shocked to see him play reduced minutes, but as he's shown in every game this series, the Spurs are still helpless to defend him without Kawhi healthy.

Green looks like a great play by any measure. He's been excellent on these prices in two of the games this series in spite of the blowout risk, and his one bad game can easily be chalked up to foul trouble. He's nearly a lock for me in cash games, and is a high upside option for tournaments as well. I'm not very interested in Thompson or Iguodala based on what I've seen so far.

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