St. Louis Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the Seattle Mariners on Friday, June 24, 2016, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
We already highlighted Chris Sale, Garrett Richards, and Stephen Strasburg in our Saturday picks article. We also highlighted the Mariners as a popular game stack at their respective team price point. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - CIN (Homer Bailey) Park - STL
FD - 38.65 DK - 20.19
On the early slate, you can consider Carlos Martinez against the Reds. Martinez and the Cardinals come into the day as -225 favorites, the best line of the day by far. Martinez has opened up 2018 with an impressive 1.75 ERA and 3.94 xFIP while striking out 10.52 batters per nine. The Reds, who are off to just a terrible start to the season, are striking out at a 24.4% clip while sporting a team wOBA of just .280 and a wRC+ of 73. Busch Stadium is the most favorable park to pitchers on the early slate. Martinez has the most implied safety of any pitcher going in the early, and if he dominates the Cincinnati lineup as he should, then the upside knows no limit.
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - ARI
FD - 37.49 DK - 19.59
On the main slate, Zack Godley presents us with a reasonably priced alternative to Strasburg and Sale priced below $10K across the industry. He doesn't hold quite the same K upside of those other guys, on the season he's striking out less than a batter per inning pitched. The matchup makes up for that, however, as the Padres are nearly as terrible as the Reds with a .301 combined wOBA and a whopping 27% strikeout rate. Godley's coming off a rough outing against the Dodgers in Los Angeles where he allowed them to put up five ER in just four innings. He dominated his first two games before that, going seven full and allowing just one earned run in each. He should be able to right the ship with little trouble tonight in a prime matchup with plenty of upside. Godley is a value priced arm that works in all formats.
Cleveland Indians vs. Chris Tillman (BAL)
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - BAL
FD - 13.44 DK - 10.3
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - BAL
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.91
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - BAL
FD - 13.24 DK - 10.15
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - BAL
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.57
Although I focused on the main slate for the picks article, I gave you plays to consider in the early slates as well, a couple of those (Encarnacion, and Kipnis) being Cleveland Indians in a strong matchup against Chris Tillman and the Orioles in Camden Yards. Tillman is making his home debut for 2018 after starting three straight on the road in which he just got massacred each time out. Most recently, he surrendered six earned runs on seven hits and two walks through just two innings up in Fenway. Through his career Tillman has been beat up equally from both side of the plate, but has been slightly worst against right handed hitters which is where the Indians will hit him from the hardest.
Francisco Lindor leads things off for the tribe with a .343 wOBA and 113 wRC+ off of RHP in his career. He's found his way on base in six straight games and has four doubles, two home runs, seven RBI and six runs scored in that stretch. Second baseman Jason Kipnis is the sole left-handed bat we'll target batting second. He's riding a six-game hitting streak after a disappointing open to the season and is bargain priced across the industry leaving room for tons of upside in our stack. Through his career, Kipnis has a .345 wOBA and .795 OPS against the split.
We'll round out our stack with Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion. The switch-hitting Ramirez rounds out the top of the Cleveland order. After a rough three-game series in Seattle where he never made it out of the batter's box, Ramirez has since been on base in every game but one. His .309 wOBA is among the top on the roster, while the right-handed hitting Encarnacion has a .370 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and .875 OPS against RHP dating back to the start of last season.
It's looking dry in Baltimore today, so we should be good to go to lock in the Indians as a top stack among the afternoon set of games against Tillman. Vegas likes Cleveland for 5.4 runs, more than even the Coors teams, so lock and load the tribe and watch the fantasy points pile up.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jose Urena (MIA)
Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - MIL
FD - 13.04 DK - 9.91
Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - MIL
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.32
Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - MIL
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.63
It looks like there's a strong chance the weather plays a factor in the Mariners game against the Rangers tonight, which hurts, because as I noted in the picks article I love the Seattle stack against Bartolo Colon. That said, we have another consideration beside the Cubbies in Coors for drastically less salary. We can also look to the Brewers in Miller Park against Jose Urena and the Miami Marlins. A retractable roof on Miller means no weather concerns here.
I talked at length about Ryan Braun in the picks article as the standout play from this game. To recap, he's gone yard five times already this season, twice in the past two nights against Marlins pitching, and has a .306 wOBA and .250 ISO through the first 18 games of the season. He can be utilized alone in cash games and is a must if we're stacking Milwaukee bats tonight. While Lorenzo Cain may not have the power that Braun has (.102 ISO, one home run), all we need to ask of him in the leadoff spot is to get on base and then let the power guys handle the rest. Cain has been quite productive at the plate this season with five multi-hit efforts, and though he opened the season with three stolen bases in the first three games, he's only managed to swipe one in the next sixteen. It would be nice to see him bring that upside back to the table.
Switch-hitting Jonathan Villar is another substantial piece of our Brewers stack, Villar sports a .310 wOBA against RHP for his career and has been more aggressive on the basepath with two swipes in his last four games. These guys play a prominent role in the Brewers top ten .327 wOBA against RHP this season and can be rounded out with one of the Brewers left-handed bats to complete the stack. Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Christian Yelich are all worthy options against Urena and his 5.09 xFIP, and 31.9% hard-hit rate through his first four years in the Majors.
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