Daily Fantasy NBA Playoff Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Round 1 4/21/18

Saturday in the NBA brings us back to a 4 game slate, but no greater amount of safe plays. With three of these series coming off of blowouts, and foul trouble plaguing the fourth, we unfortunately haven't learned a whole lot that we didn't already know. Let's go ahead and break it down anyway.

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Philadelphia 76ers at the Miami Heat

Philadelphia leads 2-1
Joel Embiid's triumphant return may have been shadowed by Justise Winslow hilariously trying to break his face mask, but damn did the 76ers look good here. The major issue it causes for us, of course, is trying to project minutes for a team that returned one of their best, highest usage players, but didn't play a normal game script. The biggest losers will likely be Amir Johnson (who isn't totally relevant for DFS purposes anyway) and Ersan Ilyasova, who was playable before Embiid's return. If you prorate the starters' minutes to a full run, it sure looks like the rest of them would have played the mid to high thirties minutes that we had projected them for.

The big question is, can we expect this game to stay closer? Vegas certainly thinks so. As of now Philly is favored by just 3.5 points, and with how chippy this series has been, I highly suspect that it will be difficult for either team to run away with it. Joel Embiid (FD $9200 DK $9100) and Ben Simmons (FD $10200 DK $9600) basically paid their prices even with the crazy game script, so both of them should be considered totally playable here. Embiid actually looks cheap from where I'm sitting. Marco Belinelli saw increased minutes last game, but I strongly believe the plan is to play J.J. Redick (FD $5300 DK $5100) 35 minutes, which makes him the better of the two shooting guard options. I'm kind of off Covington and Saric in this match-up.

As for the Miami Heat, there is still some value here in spite of one bad result. The power forward duo of James Johnson (FD $5400 DK $5700) and Kelly Olynyk (FD $6200 DK $5800) both paid their prices handily. Johnson is necessary if the Heat hope to hang with Ben Simmons, and Whiteside looked utterly lost against Embiid on both ends. Olynyk at least helps them stretch the court, and I'm guessing we see plenty of them again here. I'd guess Johnson is the safer of the two though, if only thanks to his starting role.

Dwyane Wade (FD $4900 DK $5100) still got his 25 minutes in game three, though the performance didn't follow. Josh Richardson (FD $5800 DK $5000) looks like reasonable double-up filler, and I don't trust the Heat and their plans with Dragic given how he's been jerked around this series.

Oklahoma City at the Utah Jazz

Series tied 1-1
The Jazz bounced back in game two of this series, and we saw their starters perform as many hoped they would in game one. More importantly, these guys also played their full run of minutes. I'll never understand why the Jazz didn't just play their best players for all the available minutes in a game where they lost by just eight points, but here we are. Derrick Favors (FD $5400 DK $5300), Donovan Mitchell (FD $8100 DK $7400), Rudy Gobert (FD $8000 DK $6700) and Ricky Rubio (FD $7200 DK $6800) all paid their prices and then some in spite of the Jazz putting up just 102 points, which can only be a good sign for things going forward.

I'd say Favors is the biggest winner here, as we haven't seen him play a normal 37 minute rotation in quite some time. If that's the plan going forward he's among the top two or three overall values on the slate. I'm also very encouraged by Donovan Mitchell's 42 minutes, and he stands to have excellent ownership here as well. If there's one starter I'm not penciling in to pay value it's Ricky Rubio - his 5-8 performance from deep is nowhere near sustainable, and he looks fairly risky to me given how many shots Mitchell rates to put in the air.

As for the Thunder, things are a little stranger. Many thought Russell Westbrook would see increased minutes in the playoffs, but he hasn't topped 37 minutes yet. Steven Adams (FD $6200 DK $5400) literally got run off the court by foul trouble, but I think the real plan is for him to play 35+ minutes, making him a good value going forward. Paul George is struggling to pay his prices in spite of increased minutes, and looks to have some downside risk to me even if his floor has been solid. Carmelo Anthony (FD $5600 DK $5900) and Corey Brewer (FD $4500 DK $4400) are excellent values for any format thanks to absurdly low prices for their current opportunity.

Portland Trail Blazers at the New Orleans Pelicans

Pelicans lead the series 3-0
The Pelicans curb stomped the Blazers in game three, and this one is looking like very little but a formality at this point. There isn't a whole lot to learn from game three unfortunately, as both teams reduced their starters' minutes on account of a bizarre game script. I'll throw you a few reminders on who remains good values, and then try to break down the Trail Blazers' situations.

Our system likes Anthony Davis (FD $12700 DK $11000) and Rajon Rondo (FD $7000 DK $7600) as excellent values. Nikola Mirotic (FD $8000 DK $7500) and Jrue Holiday (FD $8300 DK $7800) look somewhat overpriced, but both have upside. E'Twaun Moore doesn't really pique my interest.

But what do we do with the Trail Blazers? Evan Turner was a last minute scratch a game after he played fewer minutes than Moe Harkless, and while it looked like Harkless was on track for 30+ minutes on a very fair price, now both of these guys are questionable for Saturday. If either gets the starting gig and the other is out, they are excellent plays in any format. If both play, I don't like either. If both sit, whoever starts (Napier, maybe?) should be an excellent play.

I still believe that C.J. McCollum (FD $7200 DK $6600) and Damian Lillard (FD $9300 DK $8400) are good plays since it's very hard to believe that Portland closes the door on this season without them on the court. Al-Farouq Aminu (FD $5500 DK $5500) is also a playable option, as we project him for around 35 minutes.

Houston Rockets at the Minnesota Timberwolves

Rockets lead the series 2-0
The Rockets beat the Timberwolves by 20 points in spite of a 2-18 shooting performance from Harden, so that seems to be where this series is headed. James Harden (FD $11900 DK $10700) is still a good play, simply because the Rockets will be happy to leave him out there to cook the Wolves. Our system is also very high on Clint Capela (FD $7900 DK $7200). The Timberwolves are running Towns out there for 40 minutes, and Capela is really the only answer the Rockets have to him offensively. He played 35 minutes in the series opener, and if this game is remotely close you can expect more of the same. Our system isn't very high on the other Rockets' starters - particularly Chris Paul - because Harden just spends so much time on the ball in close games. I'd rather not play Paul here if I can avoid it.

As for Minnesota, our system is just completely down on them outside of Andrew Wiggins (FD $6200 DK $5600). They were already playing a shortened rotation for most of the season leading into the playoffs, and the Rockets are quite simply a very tough defensive match-up. Throw in the blowout/helplessness risk and I'm kind of off it. It's funny, even in the closely contested game one you actually saw Wiggins, Gibson, Teague, and Butler play less minutes than they did in close regular season games. Jamal Crawford and Derrick Rose got way too much run and put up way too many shots for me to trust the starters, and the part of my brain that has seen Thibs play his starters absurd minutes just doesn't want to trust the back-ups either. The Timberwolves look like speculative high upside plays for big tournaments only.

And finally, I’m still advocating for Eric Bledsoe (FD $7800 DK $6300) on DraftKings.

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