Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/20/18

Friday in baseball brings us a full evening slate of games with plenty of ways to take your lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings. We've got aces taking the mound, teams against some gas cans and a game in Coors.

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw FD 11500 DK 12200
Opponent - WSH (Max Scherzer) Park - LAD
FD - 42.35 DK - 23.55
When Clayton Kershaw is on a slate, he’s more often than not the top option. Tonight, we have one of the most exciting match-ups possible in baseball. Clayton Kershaw vs Mad Max Scherzer. I’ll take Kershaw every day of the week, but that is a somewhat split thought with the Nats having a tougher lineup to get through. Kershaw has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts and has struck out 18 total while allowing just two earned runs. The Nats' lineup is always going to be scary on the surface, but with Kershaw being a lefty, it’s takes away a lot of the bump that Harper has in the middle of the lineup. You then have to look at the lineup and realize that 5-9 is absolutely horrid. If Kershaw is able to avoid damage with those top 4, he’s going to go another 7+ innings and dominate this game. Who knows what Scherzer will do on the other side, but I’m confident that Kershaw will hold his own either way.

Trevor Bauer FD 9000 DK 9400
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 34.59 DK - 18.06
If you’re looking to go a bit cheaper, there’s a guy to pivot to in Trevor Bauer. He’s definitely getting a bit more expensive with every dominant start he makes, but he’s still at an affordable tag on both sites. Over the course of 20 innings this season, he’s struck out 21 and given up five runs. He’s always a bit volatile with his lack of command, but he can strike out double digits when rolling. Tonight, he faces off with the Baltimore Orioles, who rank dead last against right-handed pitching in terms of strikeouts (28%). They’re also sporting just a .286 wOBA against righties, ranking 26th in the game. It makes sense considering their lineup is predominantly righty with the two lefty power bats, Davis and Alvarez, also ranking as total K machines. Personally, pitching is a priority for me on this slate and Kershaw is going to be on every team I can fit him on. I don’t like anyone cheaper than Bauer and am excited to see who people turn to in order to pay up for even more volatile bats. Bauer is excellent in all formats if you need some savings and should walk away with another 6+ inning, 6+ strikeout performance.

Chris Archer FD 8000 DK 8800
Opponent - MIN (Lance Lynn) Park - TB
FD - 36.49 DK - 19.76
If you are looking to fit some of the Coors' bats or even stack some offenses with mid-tier salaried offensive options, then we could be buying very low on Archer. The ERA is a total trainwreck at 7.84, but the 3.90 xFIP is nearly four runs lower. He's run bad with some BABIP issues and has a 56% strand rate (17% lower than his career average). The strikeouts are still there (10.45/ 9) and he'll face a Twins' team in one of the best pitcher's parks in all of baseball. I love buying low on a guy people think might be "struggling". Most of the numbers suggest otherwise.

First Base/Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - NYY
FD - 12.83 DK - 9.64
We kick off the bats with a team we love tonight in the New York Yankees. Coming in with a projected run total over five, Vegas certainly thinks they put up some healthy runs. Marco Estrada has never been a bad pitcher, but a 5+ xFIP in each of the last two seasons suggests otherwise. He gave up a .366 wOBA to right-handers and has a huge home run problem. He now faces off against the best power bunch on the face of this planet. We’ll get to the others later, but Gary Sanchez prefers righties (.367 wOBA) and has just as much power in both sides of his platoon. He’ll be right behind Judge, Stanton, and Gregorius, so the only way he doesn’t see a couple RBI opportunities is if one of those guys clear the bases. Sanchez is the top catcher in all formats and an elite spend on both sites.

Eric Thames FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIL
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.44
First base is always a position with a lot of options. Tonight, we have Anthony Rizzo in Coors Field vs a righty and I don’t hate him in any format. I just don’t feel like picking on Jon Gray and Rizzo has been price corrected for the park. If you have the funds and think the Cubs wake up here, they’ll be far too low-owned for a Coors Field game. With that being said, we’ll move down to Eric Thames, who’s in a phenomenal match-up himself. Trevor Richards has been pretty lackluster through his first 15 innings and is sitting with a 40% hard contact rate and 6+ xFIP. I’m sure things will straighten out, but this is a Marlins bottom-end prospect and could easily never be seen again after this stint. Thames has brutalized righties since entering the league and a .386 wOBA proves it. He’s in Miller Park, where he hits just a tad bit better, and faces a guy in Richards who has trouble with the long ball. Thames hit one out in two of his last three games, so let’s see if he can make it 3 of 4.

Strongly consider (of course) Anthony Rizzo in Coors. On the cheaper end, Wilmer Flores should hit in the middle of the lineup against the lefty Newcomb.

At catcher, it's always fun to pick on James Shields so consider Evan Gattis.

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Ivan Nova) Park - PHI
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.66
Cesar Hernandez is a guy that was always on my rosters in 2015 and 2016, but nobody ever jumped along. He has power, steals bases, and is extremely savvy at the plate in situational hitting. He does a great job of finding his way on-base (a crazy .430 OBP this season) and either stealing a base (five SBs already) or getting in to score. Tonight, he faces off with a lackluster Ivan Nova. Nova is not a terrible pitcher, but he allows a whopping .381 wOBA to lefties and has trouble with base stealers. Hernandez is a pretty good hitter, too, sporting a .346 wOBA against righties in 2017. He’s a solid play in all formats and cheap enough on both sites for all formats.

Javier Baez FD 4500 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.93
DJ LeMahieu FD 4400 DK 4700
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.2
If for whatever reason, you have the funds to pay up here, I don’t hate either of these guys. To be clear, I don’t love either with the pitching options around, but there is always upside in this building especially when the high-upside Cubs are involved. As for Baez, he’s a boom or bust slugger that will be swinging for the fences every single time. Jon Gray is a great pitcher, but there’s a reason the Cubs are projected for over five runs. Baez should be right in the heart of the order and has 2 HR upside in Coors any night. As for LeMahieu, he held a .442 wOBA in Coors last season. That alone should tell you a lot. He’s fine against righties and Kendrick’s isn’t the type of pitcher to avoid in Coors Field. Both of these guys are solid all around, but Baez in tourneys and LeMahieu in cash makes the most logical sense.

Strongly consider Ketel Marte who has been a chalk play hitting in the two-hole over the last couple of nights. He's still coming very cheap.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.15
We’ve managed to ignore the Astros up to this point, but I’m not sure how. James Shields is a truly horrible pitcher. While he was certainly worse against lefties in 2017, a combined .351 wOBA isn’t good against anyone. He gave up 10 homers in 60 innings to righties and is now facing a top-five offense. The Astros are a team you can definitely stack, but a one-off Correa sounds good to me as well on this slate. He’s right up there with Altuve as the best hitter on this team and I’ll take Correa every time if it’s a righty. He held a .380 wOBA against them in ‘17 and hit 24 total home runs. James Shields is one of the worst pitchers the Astros will face this season and it’s why Vegas has them putting up 5+ runs. Correa is an elite stand-alone option in all formats and can be paired with any Astros bat you’d like.

Marcus Semien FD 3600 DK 3300
Opponent - BOS (Drew Pomeranz) Park - OAK
FD - 10.99 DK - 8.38
Semien is a guy you want to target against lefties that struggle with command. Drew Pomeranz has never been the most accurate, but it’s been horrible this season. Over 9.2 innings of rehab work in the minors, Pomeranz walked 9 batters. Not bueno at all. He’ll nov move into the O.Co and face the Athletics, who rank 11th in baseball against righties. Semien is always a threat to put one out and Pomeranz allowed 19 homers last season in under 160 innings. He’s a very good young pitcher, but the position is weak and Semien is a guy you can always count on for some HR potential. Stick to Correa if you can control it. I don’t really love this position as a whole.

Strongly consider Jean Segura coming on the cheaper side against Mike Minor.

Third Base

Travis Shaw FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIL
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.77
We just looked at Eric Thames and much of the same goes here for Shaw. When you have a rookie pitcher allowing a 40% hard contact rate, you pay attention. Richards' splits are funky right now and only that way because of the lack of innings. As he continues pitching, things will even out with him far worse against lefties. His arsenal with no arm angle, suggests any reverse split projection. I look for the Brewers lefties to start tonight by hammering him in Miller Park. Travis Shaw will never be cheap, but we know he can go yard on any night and really is the guy who carries that offense against right-handers. Shaw is in play in all formats and one of my safest plays on the board.

Matt Chapman FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - BOS (Drew Pomeranz) Park - OAK
FD - 9.28 DK - 6.96
If there’s one guy you can never use the word safe for, it’s probably Matt Chapman. He’s not as atrocious at striking out as some may want to think, but a 30% isn’t good by any means. He’s a true HR or bust guy and is swinging for the fences every single time. He faces a guy in Drew Pomeranz that could very easily make one mistake out over the plate with his recent command issues. Chapman will send it to the moon if he does and give you a huge advantage at a 3B position that is so coveted for production. If Shaw doesn’t do it for you, Matt Chapman is very interesting against a first-time back Drew Pomeranz on the road.

Outfield

Nelson Cruz FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.41
Cruz came off the DL just about a week ago and has not been great. With that being said, he’s still hit one out and is supposedly very comfortable in the batter's box. But running still seems to be an issue. Tonight, he has an elite match-up with a porous left-hander. Mike Minor was actually pretty good in 2017, but a 4.62 xFIP against righties suggests a much different future outcome. Nelson Cruz on the other hand, is one of the best hitters in the league against lefties. In 2017, he held a .357 wOBA. It was a huge off year. Prior to that, you’ll see .400+ against southpaws. He should be right back to his norm this year and his price is just far too cheap on both sites. He’s one of the top bets on the slate for a homer and don’t think he comes in too highly owned.

Christian Yelich FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIL
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.49
We’re back to the Brewers, who we’ve already been all over tonight. With Thames and Shaw both being excellent options, Christian Yelich may very well be the best hitter on this team. While a .359 wOBA in 2017 is nothing to write home about, remember he was on a pitiful Marlins team that didn’t see many high-stress games. He’s now in a hearty lineup with other lefties around him to be scared of. He faces off with Trevor Richards, who’s well-noted as bad at this point. He’s going to struggle with the Brewers and Vegas thinks they put up close to 5 runs. Yelich is my favorite cash game outfielder and a guy I’ll likely have everywhere.

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4800 DK 5000
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - NYY
FD - 16.83 DK - 12.43
Brett Gardner FD 3500 DK 4000
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - NYY
FD - 11.99 DK - 9.17
Aaron Judge FD 5100 DK 5300
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - NYY
FD - 15.07 DK - 11.15
I know three seems obnoxious, but you know the one guy I leave off will do all the damage. Judge and Stanton are obviously the big boys and they’ll cost you a few arms and legs. They could easily pay it off with 2 HR, however. As for Gardner, he’s a bit more steady, but still has the tournament appeal with stolen bases and HR’s to the short porch in right. Vegas has the Yankees putting up well over 5 runs and it’s not hard to see why. Marco Estrada was insufferable against righties in 2017 with a .380 wOBA and hasn’t shown any signs of improvement. If you’re looking to pick between Stanton and Judge, I got Stanton every single time. I just believe he’s a better hitter in every spot and will always be around the same % owned vs a righty.

You'll want some cheaper OF options to consider if paying up big for pitching. Lorenzo Cain, in the lead off slot, is still coming cheap on FanDuel. As is Austin Jackson who should lead off against the lefty Heany. He makes for an excellent punt on both sites. If Ian Happ leads off for the Cubs in Coors, then his $3400 tag on FanDuel could be a steal.

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