Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - Toyota Owners 400

DFSR is proud to bring you Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly NASCAR picks, analysis, a FREE cheatsheet and weekly video to help you cash on DraftKings.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

 

Toyota Owners 400

Richmond Raceway - Richmond, VA
Track - .75 Mile D-Shaped Oval Short Track

Teams, drivers, and fans had to be patient last week at Bristol with multiple red flags for rain and an eventual postponement until Monday but were treated to some old school Bristol racing. There were three dominators and it started with Ryan Blaney who led 100 before being taken out by lapped traffic and then the lead alternated between Kyle Busch(117) and Kyle Larson(200). There was a ton of bumping and banging right up until the final laps where Kyle Busch moved Kyle Larson then held him off to win his second straight race overall and second straight Bristol win giving him seven for his career.

This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400 and the seasons first night race. It is also the second straight and third short track race of the season but like I have mentioned in the past, all three tracks are considerably different and a reason why I put a little less weight on track type this week. One thing that remains the same from a strategy standpoint is the fact we will once again be concentrating on dominator points with 400 laps this week. There has been at least one driver to lead 100 or more laps in each of the last six races and two drivers to lead 100 or more in two of the last three races here. Like I mentioned here last year, qualifying and track position will also be very important as the winner of the race has come from a Top 5 starting position in each of the last seven races at Richmond(twice it has been won from the pole).

With all that said, let's dig in and take a look at soem race and track trends and then break down a few pre-qualifying targets.

Last Six Winners at Richmond Raceway

• 2017 Fall - Kyle Larson(started 4th, led 53 laps, 77.25 DK points)
• 2017 Spring - Joey Logano(started 5th, led 25 laps, 62.75 DK points)
• 2016 Fall - Denny Hamlin(started 1st, led 189 laps, 125.25 DK points)
• 2016 Spring - Carl Edwards(started 4th, led 151 laps, 121.25 DK points)
• 2015 Fall - Matt Kenseth(started 2nd, led 352 laps, 188 DK points)
• 2015 Spring - Kurt Busch(started 3rd, led 291 laps, 151.75 DK points)

Top 5 Current Track History at Richmond Raceway

It has been Denny Hamlin who has been the most consistent driver here over the last two years with a win and a Top 10 in all four races for an elite 3.8 average finish and an average of 74.2 DraftKings points per race. Martin Truex Jr. hasn't been quite as consistent and has just one Top 5 in the last two years but leads the average DraftKings points per race(79.4) thanks to 391 laps led. Brad Keselowski picked up two Top 5 finishes and sits third on the average DK points per race list thanks to a +25 place differential. Kevin Harvick joins Denny Hamlin as the only other driver to tally three Top 5's in the last four races but lost place differential in two of those races and led just 74 laps placing him fourth on the list. Rounding out the Top 5 is last weeks winner, Kyle Busch, who has three Top 10's and 117 laps led in his last four races here but falls down the ranks a bit with a -4 place differential.

Top 5 Career Track History at Richmond Raceway

Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with four career win at Richmond Raceway and he also has an incredible 15 Top 5 finishes in just 25 races. His teammate Denny Hamlin is not far behind with three wins and leads all drivers with an average of 62.6 DraftKings points per race over the last three years(six races). Martin Truex Jr, despite recording negative place differential in four of the last six races here sits second in average DraftKings scoring as he has led 391 laps over the last three races. He is still seeking his first career win. Kurt Busch has been very consistent here over the last three years with five Top 10's in the six races including a win in the Spring of 2015 where he also led 291 laps.

Top 5 Current Track Type History(Short Tracks)

It was Kyle Busch leading all drivers in average DraftKings points per race in 2017 and he is off to nice start in 2018 as well with an average of 95.4 per race. Looking specifically at the two short track races in 2018(Martinsville, Bristol), Busch is one of just five drivers to finish Top 10 in both races. Joining him are Clint Bower(8th, 1st), Alex Bowman(5th, 7th), Kevin Harvick(7th, 5th), and Joey Logano(9th, 6th). With a runner-up finish last week along with 200 laps led, Kyle Larson sits third in average points on short tracks this season. Ryan Blaney is another notable driver after leading 100 laps at Bristol last week but ended up getting in a crash. He also finished third in Martinsville and is averaging 54.9 DraftKings points per race through two short track races.

Top 5 Current Form (Last Six Races)

With his second straight win, Kyle Busch has taken over the top spot on the form ranks and by a good margin with an average of 92.4 DraftKings points per race. He is, by far, the hottest driver in NASCAR at the moment with finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st over his last six races. Kevin Harvick is next up with two wins and five Top 10's in the last six races with 339 laps led. Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano are the only other two drivers to have an average finish below 10 in the last six races but it's Bowyer averaging more DK points per race as he led 215 laps at Martinsville en route to his win. A couple other drivers that stand out are Martin Truex Jr(4), Ryan Blaney(3), and Kyle Larson(3) who are the only other drivers with multiple Top 5 finishes in the last six races.

Pre Qualifying/Practice Targets

Denny Hamlin($9,800)

No driver has been more consistent here at Richmond than Deny Hamlin who has an average finish of 3.8 over the last four races with 249 laps led. He won the race here in the fall of 2016 and is second to only Martin Truex Jr. in average DK points per race in that time. The best part of Hamlin this week is that he comes with a sub $10K price tag making him a terrific target in all formats.

Kurt Busch($8,900)

Another driver who has been consistent here has been Kurt Busch. He has a Top 10 finish in each of the last four races here and looking back even further he won the race in here in the Spring of 2015 after leading 291 laps and has the fourth best average DK points per race(57.7) in the last six races.

Daniel Suarez($6,900)

Suarez is one driver I am focusing on this week when looking for a value play as he has reached a season-low salary and comes back to Richmond with some nice results. In two races in his rookie season last year he finished 12th and 7th averaging 42.8 DraftKings points per race which is more than any driver below $8,800. It would be a bonus if qualified outside the Top 20. Stay tuned.

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.