Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/8/18

Welcome to Sunday baseball! With 15 games on our hands, there’s a whole lot to look at. FanDuel has done is a favor and cut it back to 10, pushing away the games that start after 3:00. I actually really like what FD did, getting rid of Coors Field and Clayton Kershaw in the process, who would’ve made the slate a little more chalky. I much prefer what we’re working with now, so let’s just jump in.

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Pitcher

Charlie Morton FD 9100 DK 11500
Opponent - SD (Tyson Ross) Park - SD
FD - 36.95 DK - 19.68

Charlie Morton is the most expensive pitcher on both sites and certainly worth footing the bill for. He went six innings in his first start and ended up striking out six and grabbing the W. Morton was a bit weird in 2017, struggling against righties (.345 wOBA) and demolishing lefties (.229 wOBA). For a righty, those numbers are very extreme. Morton also upped his K rate to over 10 innings per 9. Tonight, he sees a phenomenal match-up with the San Diego Padres. They’re a team who’s lumped in with the Marlins and White Sox as a bottom tier offense. When you look at the order, it’s not hard to see why. Here’s the top 4 - Manuel Margot, Jose Pirela, Eric Hosmer, Christian Villanueva. You can figure how good the rest of the order is when those are the four scariest. The strikeouts won’t be tough to come by and neither should the win. Morton is extremely safe in all formats and the top pitcher on the day if salary wasn’t a thing. Also to note, Morton is incredibly expensive on DK, so don’t be afraid to pivot to one of these next two options.

Jake Arrieta FD 8900 DK 9700
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 30.95 DK - 16.13
Here we have another very solid match-up on the high-end. Priced just a little bit under Charlie Morton, he’s worth pivoting to if you prefer the spot. Arrieta and the Phillies will host the worst offense in baseball, the Miami Marlins. Starlin Castro and Justin Bour are MLB-quality hitters. Brinson and Dietrich stink, but are serviceable. The other four position guys should be in AAA, or even AA. They strikeout at a 25% clip so far and I expect that number to only go up. As for Arrieta, he pitched in the minors on Monday and felt great. As long as there is no announced pitch count, expect him to fall in around 90-100. The Marlins are absolutely pitiful and as long as his game is somewhat on, getting through 6-7 innings won’t be tough at all. Let’s look at another expensive pivot.

Mike Clevinger FD 8200 DK 10900
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 37.61 DK - 19.52
Now for my FanDuel pitcher. If you look on DK, they got pricing right. Clevinger is sandwiched right in between Charlie Morton and Jake Arrieta, where he should be. Instead, on FD, he’s the 5th most expensive option at just $8,200. The Royals are another poor offense and Vegas has them expected to put up just 3.15 runs. Clevinger is always a guy worth considering as a 10.13 K/9 brings with it a great ceiling. Clevinger struggles with righties at. .349 wOBA, but made up for it by dominating righties with a .259. For this Royals squad, Jon Jay is expected to leadoff and Soler is in the 5 hole. That should give you a damn good idea of how bad they are as a team. Clevinger is just as safe as Morton for me when you consider the price. He should go, at a minimum, six innings, and six strikeouts. If Clevinger has hit heat working, 7 innings and 10 K’s is in the realm of possibility. Pitcher is an interesting spot on this slate and one you will need to get right. I personally don’t think any of the three above guys hurt you, so will play the pricing game and fit what works best. That’s probably Clevinger on FD and some combo with Arrieta on DK.

ConsiderLuke Weaver. The Brewers are projected for just 3.38 runs and Weaver is a phenomenal SP2 on DK if you want to pay down.

First Base/Catcher

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.51
Yonder Alonso FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.74
We'll kick off the bats with a team we're all over today. The Cleveland Indians. With 10 games on this slate, you'd expect more pitchers to pick on. There are a lot of different subpar arms, but most of these guys can pitch a good game if hitting their spots. Jason Hammel is easily one of the worst pitchers on this entire slate and he's bad against both sides of the plate. The Indians have two different 1B to look at and both should be paid attention to. Encarnacion is a righty, but he was better against opposing righties in 2017 with a .362 wOBA. Alonso is a lefty that obliterates righties and showed it off in 2017 with a .380 wOBA. A 26% line drive rate and 39% hard contact rate backs that up. I personally prefer Alonso in cash games because of the savings and split advantage, but you can go Encarnacion and walk away with 2 homers on any night. Always a ton of options at first, but these guys are right up there with the best.

Gary Sanchez FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Mike Wright) Park - BAL
FD - 11.81 DK - 8.88
I like to touch on at least one catcher in this spot and Gary Sanchez makes it easy. Gary Sanchez is better against righties and demolished them in 2017 with 25 home runs and a .369 wOBA. He's always great in Yankee Stadium and these Yanks just keep facing bad pitchers. Today, it's Mike Wright. Wright has definitely been worse against lefties, but a .335 wOBA against righties isn't good either. He also gave up 14 home runs in 87 innings, so Sanchez has plenty of upside here. Sanchez is fairly priced on both FD and DK and I'll have him in plenty of lineups. Assuming he's in the lineup of course as he sat out yesterday after leaving Friday's game early.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.93

This Indians team is one I love in cash games. They seem to always put up at least a few runs and almost never kill you in cash games. They hold one of the highest projected totals on the board at 4.83. Jason Hammel is just a bad pitcher and is getting worse every single year at this point with age. He should ultimately struggle with this lineup and the prices aren't overwhelming on either site. Jason Kipnis is always in play against righties with the power and speed combo in the 2-hole. He had somewhat of an off-year in 2017, but still sported a .325 wOBA against righties and his peripherals say he'll bounce back. He's going to see five or six at-bats and will have the advantage in each. After Hammel goes out, a porous Royals bullpen won't do much better. Kipnis is a great play in all formats.

Cesar Hernandez FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 9.84 DK - 7.68
Cesar Hernandez is a guy you’ll often see somewhat highly-owned. He’s used a ton by the pros as he’s reliable and has a lot of upside. He’s also independent from the Phillies and can have a good game by himself. He added nine steals to 15 home runs and a .349 wOBA vs righties in ‘17. He’s not flashy, but you’ll have a hard time finding anything you necessarily dislike about the guy. Speed, power, and he doesn’t strikeout. All against a guy in Trevor Richards that doesn’t make the top 29 prospects list on a team with the leagues worst farm system. Richards gave up 5 earned in his first start and didn’t look good at all. The Phillies are improved this season and I think they do some damage tonight. Hernandez will be lesser owned than Kipnis and has a similar floor and ceiling. I’ll go Hernandez in spots I’m not stacking the Indians as you just can’t fade Kipnis in a Tribe stack.

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - BAL (Mike Wright) Park - BAL
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.1

I love the Yankees today, but I just wish they had some more lefties. Against left-handers, Mike Wright has given up a .392 wOBA. He's now pitching in Yankee Stadium, which happens to be the second best stadium in the league for lefty-power after Coors Field. You then get to Didi Gregorius, who's protected in this order and has a ton of power against righties. He hit 22 homers against them in '17 and backed it up with a .354 wOBA. Shortstop is actually pretty nice on most nights, but not tonight. I may pay down at the position, but Gregorius has my attention if I can afford to pay up.

Scott Kingery FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.35

We’ll go right back to the Phillies at 3B with Scott Kingery. You have to like the Phillies team as a whole when facing off with a rookie that’s been horrible as doesn’t profile to be much better. The Phils have been slightly better this season and are now slotting Kingery into the middle of the order. He has a very productive and fun game, being profiled as the biggest speed + combo prospect in the majors. He’s been putting together some nice games and I assume the power will be seen very soon. Trevor Richards is a bad righty and one that’s only pitching because he plays for the Marlins. He struggled with the Red Sox last start and couldn’t navigate his way out of the 5th inning. Kingery is still cheap on both sites and you can play him alone or paired with a few Phillies bats.

Third Base

Jose Ramirez FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - KC (Jason Hammel) Park - KC
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.04

Right back to the Cleveland Indians. It's no surprise when Jason Hammel posted a .330 wOBA against both sides of the plate in 2017 and had a problem with homers (26 in 170 innings). He's now out of Kauffman Stadium and playing in Progressive Field, where a few more will fly out. Ramirez, a switch-hitter, is equally good against both sides of the plate. He sported a .397 wOBA against righties in '17 and is right in the heart of this order we're all over. He's also a bit too cheap for a guy that was right up there with Donaldson salary-wise for a lot of last season. Ramirez is one of my favorites on the slate and I'll have him on most of my teams.

Kyle Seager FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - MIN (Lance Lynn) Park - MIN
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.34
Seager is coming dirt cheap across the board in a plus matchup against Lance Lynn. The former has started off slowly, but is coming off a season with a .773 OPS and has 25 or more home runs in the last four seasons. Lynn's numbers are trending in the wrong direction with the K rate from around 8.5 per nine two seasons ago to 7.4 per nine last year and if the first start is any indication he still has room to fall.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - BAL (Mike Wright) Park - BAL
FD - 15.06 DK - 11.12
Brett Gardner FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Mike Wright) Park - BAL
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.21
You can go with Judge as well, but these are my two favorites. The Yankees have the second highest team total on the slate and Mike Wright has been absolutely horrible. Against lefties, a .394 wOBA. Against righties, .339 wOBA. 27 home runs in 150 innings. The Yankees should do absolute damage today and Vegas agrees. Stanton is better than Judge and you play him 100/100 times if they are the same price. You only play Judge if you're taking an angle on salary or ownership in a tournament. I'm not a Stanton fan, but he's simply a better hitter against every pitcher. As for Gardner, he's facing a guy who's allowed a disgusting .394 wOBA. He's held a .359 wOBA himself against right-handers, so this is a recipe for safe success. The Yankees are one of the top offenses tonight and you can't ignore them in the outfield.

George Springer FD 4300 DK 5200
Opponent - SD (Tyson Ross) Park - SD
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.55
Josh Reddick FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - SD (Tyson Ross) Park - SD
FD - 9.7 DK - 7.43
We haven't touched on the Houston Astros up to this point, but they are definitely in play against Tyson Ross. Ross was once a very good pitcher and looked at to be an ace of the future. That all went away with a few injuries and he's now just bad. He struggles more against lefties (.390 wOBA), but a .341 wOBA against righties is something you can target as well. Josh Reddick figures to be one of the main cash game targets on this slate. He demolishes righties to the tune of a .363 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate. Springer is better against lefties, but hit 25 home runs against righties in '17 and backed it up with a .363 wOBA. In the leadoff hole, he's right up there as one of the top plays on the slate. Tyson Ross is also terrible at holding runners, so Springer could be taking off when he gets on. Both of these guys deserve a lot of attention. I will personally have more Reddick, but it's only because of the price.

Nick Delmonico FD 2100 DK 3000
Opponent - DET (Mike Fiers) Park - DET
FD - 9.84 DK - 7.46
If you're looking to go cheap in the outfield, Nick Delmonico is great. I've been playing him all year and he's been fine. The home run hasn't come, but he's putting in good at-bats and the power is inevitable. He hit a whopping 9 homers in just 43 games last year and held a .362 wOBA against righties. The price is simply insane and you'll need to pay down in a few spots, so you might as well do it with a guy that's going to hit 25+ homers against a terrible pitcher. Mike Fiers gave up a .355 combined wOBA in 2017 and was terrible against both sides of the plate. We haven't touched on the White Sox up to this point because, well, they're terrible, but Delmonico can hit one out himself and more than payoff his foolish price tag. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment down below if you have any questions or comments! Thanks a lot!

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