Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/7/18

We're now just over a full week into the season. Thanks to off days, and some weather postponements, we've really shuffled the pitching rotations, so it's not all aces or all scrubs. We've got a nice healthy mix of dominant arms to lock in and weak arms to target against. Our MLB lineup optimizer has been hard at work crunching all the numbers. With a majority of the games happening this afternoon, we'll focus most of our attention on the early games while giving you some plays to consider on the evening set of five games. So let's check out the top picks at each position.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

Pitcher

Trevor Bauer FD 8600 DK 9400
Opponent - KC (Ian Kennedy) Park - CLE
FD - 37.77 DK - 19.55
We'll open things up today with Trevor Bauer leading the Indians against the Royals in his home park. Progressive Field is an average hitters park, leaning slightly in favor of the pitcher and Bauer was quite comfortable pitching there last season, as he held an xFIP over one point lower in home games versus on the road. Bauer was strong through five innings to open the season up in Seattle last weekend, surrendering two earned runs on five hits while fanning seven. The Royals were a bottom ten offense against RHP last season and didn't strike out a ton either, a trend that continues this season as they've struck out only 9.5% of the time against righties to open up the campaign. This coupled with Bauer's tendency to get into trouble early severely limit the upside, but with the tribe coming in as -205 favorites. Bauer should present more than enough safety on a modest price tag to get us where we need to be in cash games.

Sonny Gray FD 8200 DK 9000
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - NYY
FD - 35.1 DK - 17.89
The Yankees continue their weekend series with the Orioles in the Bronx today and will turn the ball over to Sonny Gray. Like Bauer, Gray got into trouble early on in his first game of the 2018 campaign, scattering ten baserunners over 4 innings, but managed to limit the damage to only one earned run. The early exit resulted in a no-decision but Gray did manage to rack up a promising eight K's in his limited time on the hill. The Yanks are -231 favorites against Chris Tillman and the O's which presents the second best money line of the day. Baltimore is off to a rough start against RHP to open the season, striking out a whopping 29.3% of the time while sporting a mere .249 wOBA against the split. Gray was dominant on both sides of the plate in 2017 and should have little trouble holding this righty-heavy Baltimore lineup in check. In spite of the shaky start, The Yankees offense should carry Gray to an easy win today and as long as he can stretch the outing a little deeper he should be a fine cash game option, with plenty of tournament upside against a swing first ask questions later Baltimore lineup.

Main slate consider: Gerrit Cole against a terrible San Diego offense

First Base/Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - NYY
FD - 13.78 DK - 10.36
I mentioned earlier in the Sonny Gray writeup that the Yanks are huge favorites against Chris Tillman tonight, and we'll look at several reasons why beginning with Gary Sanchez behind the plate. While he's going to cost you a substantial chunk of salary on DraftKings, Sanchez is hard to argue against with that FanDuel pricetag. Tillman sports a career 4.55 xFIP coming off of a career-high 5.87 in 2017. He had a 40.2 hard hit % against right-handed hitters in 2017 and will certainly struggle trying to keep the Yanks power bats in the yard. Sanchez has just as good a shot of sending one to the moon of anyone in the New York lineup and hits in the heart of a very dangerous order so there's a strong chance it won't be a solo shot. I'm not saying to NOT play Sanchez on DK, I'm simply saying don't look past him on FanDuel. He's clearly a top play everywhere. Update: Sanchez left yesterday's game early but early signs are that he'll play today. 

Cody Bellinger FD 3300 DK
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - SF
FD - 12.82 DK - 0
Moving on to 1B we find the young Dodgers slugger Cody Bellinger. Bellinger ended his rookie campaign second to only Joey Gallo at the position with 39 HR. The righty masher will step into the box today against Chris Stratton who allowed three earned runs in just 5.1 IP against these same Dodgers last Sunday. Bellinger was 2 for 4 at the plate that day, and hit his first and only knock of the year off the Giants bullpen once Stratton was out of the game. The 2017 Rookie of the year was much stronger against the split last year with a .383 wOBA and 27 of his 39 home runs coming off of right-handed pitching. This game is in AT&T Park which favors pitchers, but even if he stays in the yard Bellinger should be able to do enough damage on Stratton to satisfy our needs.

Hanley Ramirez FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - TB (Jacob Faria) Park - BOS
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.15
Hanley Ramirez was one of our MLB lineup optimizer's favorite targets all season long in 2017 and the way things are looking 2018 will be more of the same. Hanley is off to a hot start of the current campaign, following up a 0-3 on opening day with base hits in each game since. In games two through six Ramirez is 9-26 with two doubles and a home run. Jake Faria, who made fourteen appearances last season sported a modest 3.43 ERA, though his xFIP was over a full run higher at 4.39 draws the start today in Fenway. Faria allowed just one earned run through four innings in his debut against the Red Sox in Tampa last Sunday, though he did scatter seven baserunners through his limited outing with just two K's. Look for Hanley to keep the fire burning against Faria and the Rays this afternoon.

Main Slate Consider: Joey Gallo against Marcus Stroman, and Evan Gattis against Bryan Mitchell.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis FD 2800 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Ian Kennedy) Park - CLE
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.07
Second base always tends to be a tough position to field any solid value, so we tend to look for the cheap way out. So far 2018 has proven no different. Today we have a few different ways we can go and none require major salary commitment. First up is Jason Kipnis of the Indians. The Tribe are home against Kansas City this weekend and the Royals will run Ian Kennedy out to the hill for today's action. Kennedy, a 33-year-old journeyman now in his third season with the Royals has never been an arm to shy away from, regardless of the side of the plate your batting from. Allowing a .322 wOBA to left and right-handed hitters alike, Kennedy does tend to give up the long ball more to left-handed batters. While not much of a power hitter Kip is just looking to bounce back after an injury-riddled 2017 season that saw him limited to just 90 games with his numbers suffering in the long run. Reaching base safely in four of his first seven games this season is a good start and Kipnis remains cheap enough that we have to consider him in the top of a strong Cleveland order.

Eduardo Nunez FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - TB (Jacob Faria) Park - BOS
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.21
Eduardo Nunez opened the season with a bang going 2-4 with a double and a home run in Tropicana Field and has reached base safely in all but one game so far this season. The action shifts to a much more hitter-friendly Fenway Park today as Boston continues their weekend series with the Rays. Nunez split his time last season between the Giants and the Red Sox posting career highs in wOBA (.342) and wRC+ (112) and his .313 average was the first time in his eight big league seasons over the .300 mark. Both of these guys are solid value options that present reasonable upside. While I favor Kipnis slightly more, I will likely split my exposure to each.

Main slate consider: Rougned Odor with a .320 career wOBA against RHP vs. Marcus Stroman.

Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3100 DK
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - SF
FD - 11.6 DK - 0
Shortstop has several solid options to consider, and though they're going to cost us, each should be well worth the cost of admission when all is said and done. Corey Seager ended last season with a .363 wOBA and 127 wRC+ both second among all qualified at the position. He's off a to a rough start to the 2017 season, reaching base just seven times in 27 plate appearances, with his first hit of the season coming against Stratton last Sunday, which he managed to capitalize on coming around to score. Stratton has been much worse against the left side of the plate for his career, and last season allowed left-handed hitters a .355 wOBA against. There's a bit of risk, but playing Seager could pay off big time in a favorable matchup.

Trea Turner FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - WSH
FD - 13.32 DK - 10.39
Trea Turner was 0-3 when he was ejected at the plate on Thursday night for arguing balls and strikes. The early departure ensured he wouldn't make it out of the batter's box for just the second time this season after a 0-3 opening day. Through the four games in between Turner has been an exciting daily fantasy play drawing a walk in each game, stealing three bases and hitting his first bomb of the season in a 2-4 game in the opening set at Great American Ballpark. The Nationals are hosting the Mets this weekend who will send Steven Matz to the hill. Matz was beaten around by the Cardinals in his first start allowing three earned runs and seven base runners in four innings while striking out four. Now in his fourth season with the Mets, Matz 3.72 career xFIP tells the real story behind his 4.03 ERA but he has always struggled against the right side of the plate allowing a .370 wOBA to the split. Turner is a strong leadoff option with plenty of pop behind him in the order.

Main slate consider: Trevor Story at home in Coors against Anibal Sanchez.

Third Base

Maikel Franco FD 2500 DK
Opponent - MIA (Dillon Peters) Park - PHI
FD - 10.31 DK - 0
I wanna be like Maik, or at the very least I wanna make sure I have Maikel Franco locked into my lineups this afternoon. Franco was outstanding against the Marlins on Thursday (and in our cash game lineups) coming up just a double short of the cycle, going 3-4 at the plate and driving home four runs. It was the type of stat line we've long known Franco was capable of delivering on, and while I don't expect him to duplicate the performance today, he's priced to a point where he doesn't even have to come close, and he'll still pay off some solid value. Dillon Peters makes his eighth career start today in South Philly and though he dominated in six shutout innings against the Cubs in his first appearance this season, the southpaw with the career 4.52 xFIP and 25.7 hard hit % will have to contend with the short wall in the Citizens Bank Park outfield today. Franco is a strong play for a reasonable price.

Evan Longoria FD 2400 DK
Opponent - LAD (Rich Hill) Park - SF
FD - 8.57 DK - 0
We've looked at a couple of the Dodgers today against Chris Stratton, but we can also give some time to the opposing dugout as the Giants will go up against Rich Hill today. Hill allowed eight baserunners in six innings in a home game against the Giants last weekend but was able to hold San Francisco scoreless, and today takes the hill once again against the Giants this time in AT&T Park. Evan Longoria received a day off on Wednesday night against Seattle after opening the series with his first home run of the year. It was a nice shake-up for Longoria who opened the season 0-15. With the monkey now off his back, he will look to keep things rolling having had several days to rest thanks to last night's postponement. Hill, who brings a career 4.11 xFIP to the mound today walked three batters in addition to the four base hits surrendered in his 2018 debut. Longoria was finally able to wake his bat on Wednesday, now can he keep it awake after some extended rest? For the price, I'm willing to find out.

Main slate consider: Adrian Beltre vs. Marcus Stroman.

Outfield

Brett Gardner FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - NYY
FD - 12.51 DK - 9.57
Giancarlo Stanton FD 4700 DK 5400
Opponent - BAL (Chris Tillman) Park - NYY
FD - 17.56 DK - 12.98
We've already looked at this game on the hill with Gray, and at the plate with Sanchez, here are two more dangerous options for Chriss Tillman to contend with in what could be a very tough day on the hill. Giancarlo Stanton took his MLB leading 59 home runs in 2017 out of south beach, and up to the Bronx to complete a very lethal starting lineup. He made his Yankees debut with a bang, knocking two home runs on opening day and added a third a couple of nights ago against the Rays. We could have paired Stanton with Aaron Judge here, but that would be a costly outfield. So instead we can pair him with Brett Gardner for significantly less with just as much upside pop. Gardner's only home run to this point came on opening day, but he has managed to find his way on base in all but one game so far going into Friday night's game. Vegas has the Yanks projected for 5.9 runs, the most outside of Coors Field, so a Bronx bombers stack is a fine way to go today against a very easily targeted Tillman.

Andrew McCutchen FD 2300 DK
Opponent - LAD (Rich Hill) Park - SF
FD - 10.5 DK - 0
I really wanted Andrew McCutchen to come to Philly once his time in Pittsburgh was up. I suppose my loss is the Giants gain. Regardless of where he plays, I can always target McCutchen in daily fantasy MLB. Thirty-one-year-old McCutchen is the Giants new number three hitter and has reached base safely in three of his first six games with the Giants. Cutch is in a great spot today against Hill and the Dodgers. Cutch has always been a lefty basher and last season in Pittsburgh hit southpaws to the tune of a .462 wOBA. Hitting in the top of the order, even against a southpaw of Hill's pedigree, you have to like Cutch as a superb value play in the outfield.

Matt Kemp FD 2700 DK
Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - SF
FD - 10.24 DK - 0
In the same game, we find Matt Kemp. We've already looked at a few strong options in the Dodgers lineup and covered at length the weaknesses in Stratton's game. Kemp is back in a Dodgers uniform after spending a few seasons floating around San Diego and Atlanta, and though he got off to a quiet start going 2 for 10 in the opening series against the Giants, he has since gone 4 for 11 and is walking 14.3% of the time as well. At this stage in his career, Kemp doesn't offer the greatest upside, but he's also priced at a point where we don't have to ask for much either.

Main slate consider: Shin-soo Choo, Carlos Gonzalez.

Thanks for reading. Good luck out there today, feel free to drop any questions or comments below. Cheers!

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!