Utah Jazz's Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates with Jae Crowder (99) and Rudy Gobert (27) after the first half of the team's NBA basketball game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, March 2, 2018, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Kim Raff)
It's a complicated Thursday slate, as the playoff picture in the East is nearly solidified and the West is, well, wild. We've got two games between teams fighting for their Western Conference playoff lives, and then a smattering of games that kind of don't matter. To what degree should we prioritize safety, and how much can we just go for it in solid match-ups? Let's find out.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.78 DK - 38.71
There's a lot going on with this selection, so give me a second to parse it all out. The biggest question around Bledsoe and the Bucks is, what is their plan now with their playoff spot officially secured? Do they plan to fight for seeding and chase a first round match-up with the Celtics instead of the Raptors, or are they going to take it a little bit easier and try and be rested for the playoffs? With only 4 games left to play I'd guess that they're going to keep making a run at a higher seed, if for no other reason than they want to stay hungry. If you buy that line of reasoning, the rest of this play writes itself. You've got the league best match-up for opposing point guards, and Bledsoe has been on an absolute tear. If we set aside a bad performance in a terrible spot against Boston, he had just put together 3 games where he averaged 51.5 fantasy points. I suppose there is some level of risk here, but the upside may be too great to pass up.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.86 DK - 27.36
I like Rivers for all of the opposite reasons to why I like Bledsoe. It's a bad match-up against Utah, but you've got a great price on Rivers. The Clippers are playing for absolutely everything here - there are fully 6 teams ahead of them that are within striking distance, and they only need to catch 2 of them. One of them will definitely lose tonight (either Denver or Minnesota) and if the Clippers can beat Utah, they'll move up 2 games on them. Rivers has been playing 36-38 minute rotations with Teodosic sidelined, and has flashed 7x points per dollar upside on these prices recently. I think he's a high floor option regardless of the match-up woes.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.69 DK - 26.67
This one simply comes down to whether Teague plays or not. If Teague is out, we have an elite punt that's nearly a must for every format. We've seen Jones go off in the past with Teague sidelined, and Jones went off on this price last game in spite of a terrible game script for the starters. The Nuggets are an excellent match-up here, and like the Clippers, the Wolves are going to be playing their best players as much as humanly possible. Jones is a classic price and opportunity mismatch, so just keep your eye on the news about Teague.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.69 DK - 38.97
By now you're likely sensing a theme already. It's actually quite a luxury to be able to grab Mitchell at the shooting guard position here. His price has come down a bit, and even though his minutes have been a little bit sporadic recently those were strictly game script issues. With a chance to step on the Clippers' collective throats tonight you can believe he'll be in line for 38+ minutes unless things get out of hand (and then even if they do in all likelihood). The Rookie of the Year candidate is a true talent $8,000 player in his full minutes in an average match-up, and the Clippers are an elite spot. They've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. Get ready to see huge ownership on this guy.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 33.98 DK - 35.42
This one is a lot like the Rivers write-up. The sites seem to be going overboard on price correcting recently, and while Lou-Will would be a tough call at his $7,500 price tag, these prices are just begging us to run him out there. He's paid 5x+ points per dollar in his last 3 games and you don't have to scroll very far to see 45+ fantasy point performances. I won't pretend like there isn't risk with Williams. As we've covered many times before, it's not hard to lose minutes as a back-up, even when the plan is for you to run the second unit. I still think the price is cheap enough (and the ownership will be high enough) that you can make it work, though.
Also considered: Tyrone Wallace, if he draws the start. Some will look at Will Barton, and while it's sensible, that price is awfully high. There are some other high floor-ish options like Harden and McCollum, but they just look overpriced to me as well.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 58.46 DK - 59.59
Lebron’s last month or so has been, how do I put this, unf@#$ing real. Dude has taken things to a new level which is saying something considering who we are talking about. In that span, he’s averaging 30 points, 10 rebounds, 9.5 assists while also getting after it on the defensive end. It’s put him back into the MVP discussion which didn’t seem at all possible as late as February. But here we are with the Cavs fighting for the three seed in the East and LBJ refusing to take his foot off the gas as we speed towards the playoffs. He likely represents the safest of the big money options on this slate considering his minutes’ floor has been somewhere in the 38 range over the short term. The spotlight of the game combined with his recent play could have him as one of the higher-owned plays on the slate, with good reason.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 53.21 DK - 53.93
Here's the real decision of the night - Giannis or LeBron. Both have been similarly impactful over the course of the season, but LeBron has been doing more recently. The Cavs seem hungry to outpace the Sixers, and the Bucks' attitude toward their playof seeding is as of this point an unknown. The Cavs have an OK match-up, the Bucks have the best match-up in the league. Do you have the stomach to guess between these guys? If ever there were a night to try and make two big money payoffs work, tonight would be the night. With a gun to my head I think I'd prefer LeBron here, but it's a classic case where I'm going to trust the numbers and try to leave my emotions aside.
Also considered: Nemanja Bjelica, because it's going to be awfully tough to pay up at both SF spots. He looks like a high floor and fairly vanilla play. Allen Crabbe is another guy that could draw some looks for DFS purposes tonight. All in all it's a very thin position tonight.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 28.38 DK - 27.44
Henson isn’t a great post defender which can sometimes lead to minutes restrictions if he’s getting chewed up by opposing fives. But that shouldn’t be an issue against a Nets’ team running out Jarrett Allen and a revolving cast of undersized “bigs” at the five. They’ve been obliterated by opponents in the post this season, allowing close to 13% more scoring and 16% more rebounding than league average to the position. Those numbers are eye-poppingly bad. Again, Henson’s minutes can fluctuate and at these prices, you are hoping he can push to around 30. That shouldn’t be much of an issue against this defense.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 25.27 DK - 25.04
It’s a small slate with some considerable big money payoffs in the upper tier of pricing, so looking for savings at power forward should be the way to go. Gibson’s kept his slow and steady pace of fantasy production this season, rarely overwhelming the box score but almost never completely dusting you with his performance. His saving grace is the consistent minutes where he’s averaging 34 per game over the last month (right in line with his season average). In that time he’s averaging 12 points and six rebounds with the former deviating a bit more on a game-to-game basis. He’ll get Millsap in the post which doesn’t represent a fantastic matchup, but we are looking to buy the minutes on the cheap here if other punt plays don’t emerge.
Strongly consider Draymond Green.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 49.44 DK - 51.54
The Nuggets have been obliterated by centers all season long, allowing 7% more scoring than league average to the position. As mentioned, this is a high leverage game with both teams fighting for the Western Conference playoffs, and Towns should see a full allotment of minutes. He’s played 39 or more in three of his last four games which included a crazy 56 point, 14 rebound affair against the Hawks last week. The decision between Towns and Jokic at center is a close one, but a $1K difference in price on FanDuel helps the KAT case (he’s $600 cheaper on DraftKings). Even if Jimmy Butler were to return tonight, I wouldn’t be overly concerned with a usage downgrade for Towns and he’s an elite option on the shorter slate of games.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.01 DK - 39.96
You aren’t going to get outsized real-life scoring from Gobert, so you are basically banking on him chipping in along the rest of the stat sheet. Not to say he doesn’t score, but he isn’t a post scorer and relies on pick and dives or put-backs to get the ball in the basket. But he’s an elite rebounder (13 boards per game over his last five) and shot-blocker (2.6 per game in that stretch). He’ll front DeAndre Jordan in this one and won’t be asked to drift too far from the basket because of the matchup. He’s a better deal on DraftKings with the reduced price and possible double-double bonus coming.
Strongly consider Myles Turner for the FanDuel main slate. DraftKings isn’t supporting that game.
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