Welcome back to another full day of MLB action as we have a four-game early slate followed by a nine-game main slate. Let's jump in and take a look at some GPP pitchers and stacks for both slates.
We already highlighted Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, and Cole Hamels in our 4/3/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Red Sox as a popular game stack at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Early
Opponent - TB (Chris Archer) Park - TB
FD - 31.11 DK - 15.65
There are not a ton of choices after Sale on this small four-game early slate so why not target a team with a weak offense that strikes out a ton? Sounds easy enough. Enter the Tampa Bay Rays who finished in the bottom third in most hitting categories in 2017 and had the third-highest strikeout rate(25%). They definitely didn't make many upgrades in the offseason and the early numbers indicate they are likely to be one of the worst offensive teams once again. They won their opener vs. the Red Sox but followed it up with three straight losses scoring just three runs and sit 28th in wOBA(.246) just ahead of the Giants and Orioles with a 25.7% team K rate. Montgomery will be making his first start of the season as the Yankees return home for their home opener. He is coming off an up and down rookie season(to be expected) but did post an 8.34 K/9 rate and impressive 12.2% swinging strike rate which bodes well against this free-swinging Rays team. He also comes with a ton of win equity as the Yankees are -150 favorites and have one of the most powerful offenses in baseball to get him some run support. The price is right for him to be an SP2 with Sale and a nice salary relief pivot option on FanDuel.
Main
Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - STL
FD - 31.24 DK - 15.83
Like I mentioned in the main article, Clayton Kershaw is always a target but comes at a high price on the road in Arizona tonight so my exposure will be light and in GPP formats only. Chase Anderson is a pitcher I won't be using in cash games on DraftKings as he is over $10K but on FanDuel he is a tremendous value under $8K tonight. He pitched very well in his first start going six innings allowing just one hit and striking out six batters. He is coming off a career year where he tallied 12 wins with an 8.5 K/9 rate and 2.74 ERA. In 25 starts, he gave up more than four earned runs just once and more than three earned runs just four times so there is also a bit of safety there as well. The Brewers are small home favorites tonight but there is also some upside as the Cards have struck out a league-high 28% of the time through the first four games of the season.
Early Slate
San Francisco Giants vs. Marco Gonzales (SEA)
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 10.23 DK - 7.94
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 9.2 DK - 7.11
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.44
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.61
The Giants offense has been somewhat of a train wreck to start the season and hopefully, even on a small four-game slate, they come in under-owned as they still have some upside. They made some changes in the offseason adding Austin Jackson, Andrew McCutchen, and third basemen, Evan Longoria. All three hitters are situated in the top half of the Giants batting order and expected to contribute in a big way although that hasn't happened quite yet.
Today they get a prime matchup to get it going at in their home opener against the Mariners who are tossing out Marco Gonzales on the bump. He doesn't have much K stuff(career 7.5 K/9) but does like to give up the long ball(career 14.3% HR/FB rate). He made 11 appearances(eight starts) in 2017 and posted a disappointing 6.08 ERA and 4.46 xFIP while giving up a home run in six of those eight starts.
Jackson should be back in the leadoff spot to set the table and comes at a very cheap price on both sites which is a good as we will be likely running out Chris Sale in most of our lineups today. Joe Panik hits in the two-hole and while it's lefty/lefty, he has shown to be an excellent hitter vs. southpaws. Like I also mentioned in the main article, McCutchen is struggling but is coming off his seventh straight 20+ home run and eighth straight 80+ RBI season so there is upside there. Finally, we have Buster Posey who continues to be a staple in this Giants lineup and the key to their offensive success. Two other options we could use if you want to mix up the stack is the 5/6 hitters in Evan Longoria and Hunter Pence.
The stack is risky with a struggling offense but like I said, if we are using an expensive Sale it makes sense as the Giants hitters come at a big discount right now.
Main Slate
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miguel Gonzalez (CWS)
Opponent - CHW (Miguel Gonzalez) Park - CHW
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.53
Opponent - CHW (Miguel Gonzalez) Park - CHW
FD - 13.06 DK - 9.73
Opponent - CHW (Miguel Gonzalez) Park - CHW
FD - 11.66 DK - 8.72
Opponent - CHW (Miguel Gonzalez) Park - CHW
FD - 1.19 DK - 0.91
I realized this morning I didn't mention one Blue Jay hitter in the main article despite them having the highest implied run total on the main slate. Even as a Jays fan, I tread lightly with their streaky offense but today they are in a great spot to put up some runs. They face Miguel Gonzalez who started last season with the White Sox before being traded to the Rangers down the stretch and is now back with the White Sox before being inevitably traded later this season. Whoa, this guy gets around. He doesn't give up a ton of home runs(9.6% HR/FB rate in 2017) but he also doesn't strike anyone out either(5.77 K/9 in 2017). Runs, well he gives up those in bunches as he recorded a 4.62 ERA last season with an even worse 5.65 xFIP between the White Sox and Rangers and 10 times gave up four or more earned runs in a start.
For the Jays, they started out dropping the first two games to the Yankees and were completely shut down by Severino and Tanaka but rebounded in the final two games, winning them both while scoring 12 runs. They won the opener against the White Sox last night as well scoring four runs thanks to a late-inning Russell Martin two-run blast and Aledmys Diaz sole shot. Today I will be targeting the top of the lineup starting with Devon Travis if he is back in the leadoff spot. Obviously he is a GPP only play today as he has struggled to start the year but comes at a discounted price and gets a ton of opportunity to get on base ahead of the power bats in Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak. Solarte is also a value play if he back in the cleanup spot as he comes at a sub $3K price tag on both sites. I don't even mind mixing it up and targeting the mid to bottom of the lineup either with Russell Martin who makes a cheap catcher play or Curtis Granderson who has some pop in his bat as well.
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