Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
I hate April Fools' Day. The unoriginal jokes. The obvious baiting. The tiresome knowing looks from all the unfunny people in your life who finally have gathered the courage to make obvious stabs at humor.
Me? I'll just be grinding DFS. Now let's get through an absolutely huge 13 game slate.
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Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 58.39 DK - 61.49
We missed out on Russell in basically this exact spot two nights ago, much to our detriment. Tonight it is going to be even more difficult. There are some insanely good punts at the point guard position tonight, but there are also great punts at any number of positions, so maybe it's time to run Westbrook out there. By now you'll have seen what he did against Denver - he put up 70 fantasy points and a ridiculous 33/9/13 line to lead all of the big money payoff plays. Granted he had the benefit of an extra period, but fading him here will be scary nonetheless. Denver was a great match-up, but this one against Rondo and the Pelicans is inarguably even better - the Pelicans have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Westbrook is still cheaper than his expensive counterparts, and a very attractive option here.
The Punt Pile
There are so many punts here that it's hard to keep track of them all today. Here are the two obvious ones for point guard:
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.82 DK - 28.95
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 30.55 DK - 30.7
These guys averaged 70% ownership in the last slate they were featured on together, and the only thing that has changed are the prices. Ulis' spot is basically identical to the one he had against Houston. His team is an enormous underdog against a fast paced team. But honestly, it hasn't totally mattered for the Suns. They plan to play him 36-37 minutes regardless of game script, and an uptempo game should favor him a great deal. As for Taylor, his price has climbed a bit to the point where we are probably at least a little concerned about the performance, but Orlando's bottom 6 defense against opposing point guards probably gets us over the line there as well. All in all these are two rock solid options for any format.
You also have other options, like Dante Exum for big tournaments, or the very reasonably priced Tomas Satoransky given that there is no John Wall today. Point guard is just wildly deep on a slate this size though, and these otherwise great cash game plays might be relegated to big tournament status.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.11 DK - 31.38
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.67 DK - 28.97
With so little on the line for either of these teams, this one might be semi-tough to stomach, but I really don't mind it. KCP is going to have both fresh legs and a ton of opportunity after getting ejected from his last game, and going up against his counterpart in Bogdan Bogdanovic should be nothing that keeps him up at night. Bojan meanwhile was a big time chalk play in his last outing at these prices and delivered 30 fantasy points as a part of big tournament winning lineups. His match-up against the Lakers (who are still playing the league's fastest pace) is nothing short of phenomenal, and he's an excellent pay-down option.
The best of the rest: It's one of the deepest shooting guard nights in recent memory as well. You've got excellent punts like Jordan Clarkson (with no George Hill), Rodney Hood, Troy Daniels, and Tyrone Wallace. Damion Lee looks like a terrific play assuming he gets another start. The list legit goes on and on. The problem tonight isn't going to be finding good plays, it's going to be picking between them. This is where the lineup optimizer really does work. When there are so many variables to consider the eyeball test just doesn't do it justice.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 41.3 DK - 41.79
George's price seems frozen in time, but his opportunity is on the rise, making for an excellent cash game option. He's running out there for 36-38 minute rotations right now, and it seems pretty clear that OKC still cares about winning. The Pelicans are less horrible against opposing small forwards than they are against some positions, but when you take a look at this on a match-up basis it doesn't really come together in favor of the Pels. George will likely draw some combination of E'Twaun Moore, Darius Miller, and other mix and match wings, which should make him an excellent high floor option here.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 54.52 DK - 55.43
Another excellent big money payoff that likely needs no introduction, but I'll go ahead and make one anyway. Giannis was another of the winners in the "which big money play is the best" sweepstakes on Friday, even if he wasn't especially incredible against the Lakers. Still, you have love the Greek Freak's maximum effort play right now for DFS purposes. When he's crashing the boards for 16 rebounds in a game it's a great sign for the rest of his game. It helps him get put-backs, assists in transition, and of course the points from the rebounds themselves. The Bucks can't quite stop playing just yet, so I expect we'll see him out there for his full run in a fast paced if league average match-up with the Nuggets.
And then a number of potential punt plays to keep an eye on. You could run Royce O'Neal if Rubio sits - he played 36 minutes last game with the Spaniard out. Gerald Green played piles of minutes with no CP3, but had a bit of a disappearing act. The list of these guys goes on on this slate - Stanley Johnson, Evan Turner, David Nwaba - it's an actual wild one. My best suggestion is just to make sure you're on top of news as things get closer to lineup lock.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.97 DK - 37.25
With Brandon Ingram already ruled out, we get another chance to play Kuzma at a deep discount to his expected opportunity. He was running out there for high 30s minutes with regularity with Ingram sidelined, and he'll get a fantastic chance to ply his trade against Sacramento's subpar front court here. Kuzma put up a massive 27/12/6 line in overtime against the Bucks, and people noticed - you can expect huge cash game ownership here.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 41.6 DK - 41.89
What to make of Aaron Gordon? The minutes have been there, but the performance has been underwhelming recently. It's a top 10 match-up with the Hawks, but every facet of Gordon's game has been lagging his season long performance since he's returned from injury. With so many excellent options on the slate I'm not sure you'll ultimately want to risk it, but the 63 fantasy point performance against the Suns leads me to believe that Gordon is basically fine. It's also nice that Orlando is playing one of the handful of teams that isn't especially likely to blow them out. The more I write, the more comfortable I'd be with cash game ownership here.
Power forwards who could be great or suck, just because there are a lot of them here as well. How about Marquese Chriss? He's been playing minutes and generally owning recently, but the Suns are million point underdogs and his role hasn't be as secure historically. Is Anthony Davis where you want to pay up? It's a step back for him match-up wise, he's already been expensive, and he hasn't been producing reliably. Do you believe in Derrick Favors' recent uptick in minutes? PF is actually a pretty stick position today in spite of 90% of the teams in the league playing, so I'll probably wind up just going as safe as possible.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 54.38 DK - 54.98
Well here's a pretty straightforward headliner for the position. The Nets have ranked dead last against opposing centers all season long by a full 2 fantasy points, or the difference between 2nd place and 7th place. Drummond is on a tear recently, topping 60 fantasy points in two of his last 4 games and topping 51 in one other. He's averaged just under twenty rebounds per game in his last 5 games. Yes, there are a lot of punts and big money payoffs today - but Drummond just might be a must-play in double ups and 50/50s today.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 30.18 DK - 31.36
Our lineup optimizer has been politely suggesting that we play Dewayne Dedmon for the better part of a week, but this is the first time I've written him up in a picks article. So what gives? Well, Dedmon has averaged 12/9/2/1/1 in his last 7 games, comfortably paying 5x points per dollar in all manner of match-ups. He has a truly great match-up with Vuc and the Magic, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. It's not likely the type of exciting play that wins you a big tournament, but as a fill in on DraftKings or a pivot away from Drummond (if the prices really don't work for him for whatever reason), this play is totally reasonable. But still, just play Drummond.
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