Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond (0) scores as San Antonio Spurs defenders Boris Diaw (33) and Patty Mills (8) look on during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2015, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
The NBA has given us kind of a funky slate of five games today, drawn out over the course of several hours. We'll take a look at the Pistons who are fighting to get into the playoffs with time winding down and the loss of a key piece to their offense, the Wizards, who could be getting a key piece to their offense back any day now, and just when it matters the most, and the Knicks who haven't had much of anything to play for but have still been getting their guys reliable playing time. There's a ton of value, and only a handful of spots worth paying up for, so let's take a look at the top plays at each position.
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Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 37.2 DK - 37.84
Value aplenty is the theme of the day today. There are plenty of appealing plays today in the middle pricing tier and only one player priced over $10K on FanDuel, while DraftKings has two. This is the type of day where I like to go multiple lineups because there are just so many interesting combinations that can be conjured up using our NBA projection system's top plays. I will certainly be mixing and matching the trio of sub-$7K plays we have to start us off at the point. First up we have Trey Burke of the Knicks. Burke has three starts under his belt now since showing Emmanuel Mudiay to the bench last weekend and jumping into the New York starting rotation. What we have seen in that short time is nothing short of impressive. Burke sandwiched a thrilling 40 minute OT loss against the Hornets in between two 27 minute games. While the game log in Charlotte was spectacular (42/1/12/0/1) the nearly identical games against Philly and Washington in which he averaged 18.5 points, 2.0 boards, 4.5 assists, and 2.0 steals show us the very solid floor of Trey Burke. His price has finally caught up to the performance, and short of stretching the clock beyond the 30-minute mark Burke may not hold the upside he did a week ago, but as a cash game play, he's proving to be quite the safe play as he makes the most of this opportunity. I'm not holding fast to the idea of playing Burke strictly in cash, I'll consider him in tournaments but he will definitely be in my cash game lineups.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.16 DK - 34.42
Enter the dragon. Goran Dragic and the Heat are clinging tightly to that seventh spot in the East but nothing is locked in just yet. With Milwaukee and Detroit breathing down their necks, every win is important. Vegas certainly considers this one to end in the W column for the Heat who come in as 7.5 favorites against the lowly Nets. Dragic, the minutes' leader for the Heat this season has seen a steady run in March, averaging 31 per game and 0.9 FP per minute. The Nets have allowed the second most FP per game over their last five to opposing point guards, and their 100.9 pace factor will certainly speed up the Miami offense presenting Dragic with a few extra shots. For the price, I don't see much upside coming out of Dragic, but as a cash game play, he's looking to be one of the safest of the night.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.59 DK - 27.68
You'll want to watch the news closely with this one, as John Wall does seem to be ready to make his return any day now. If he does indeed return this afternoon as the Wizards host the Hornets, he will most certainly return to the starting rotation, sending Tomas Satoransky back to the bench. He also will likely be on some kind of minutes restriction, meaning there could still be value to be had by rolling with Satoransky. Satoransky's price has come down in the short term, especially on FanDuel where he spent most of March in the $6K range, and now we only need to ask him for 25 fantasy points (FP) to make the play worthwhile. While there have been some real duds mixed in, he has delivered on that request quite easily in most games since taking over Wall's spot at the one in late January. Though they've been average defending against the position this season, Charlotte has fallen to a bottom ten defense vs. position (DvP) against point guards in their last ten games. If Wall is cleared to play, watch for the call on the minutes. If he's capped at 15 Satoransky is worth the shot, if Wall remains out, lock Satoransky with confidence in all formats.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.27 DK - 28.33
Continuing the value theme, we're going to bypass the DeMar's and Beal's of the shooting guard world and look at another value trio. That isn't to say those guys are out of the conversation, Beal, in particular, missed a spot here by just a hair, as the fourth highest points per dollar (PPD) projection at the position. If you have additional funds and want to go there, then have at it. Otherwise, you should be quite content settling on Bogdan Bogdanovic. Normally we wouldn't go anywhere near this play with Sacramento hosting the Warriors, but the Warriors just haven't been the same lately. Injuries have crippled the mighty Dubs, and though they are gaining some stability with the return of KD and Dray, Steph remains out and Klay Thompson is probable to return from a seven-game absence. This has the Kings as 8.5 point dogs, which against the Warriors isn't exactly off-putting especially on a lighter slate like the one we have today. The Warriors have been the third most generous team to shooting guards this season both with and without Klay on the court. Bogdan hasn't been a stellar play lately, he's only hit value on these prices twice in the last six games, but one of those did come against these same Warriors, while the other was just two nights ago against the Pacers. For the price, I'm quite comfortable locking in Bogdan in hopes of 22-25 FP.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 21.3 DK - 22.61
Wayne Ellington is going out of March like a lamb. He's got one more chance to roar like a lion before turning the calendar over to April. The problem doesn't lie in the minutes, he's averaged 28 minutes in 11 games off the bench this month and they've maintained even with Miami near full health at this point. He's just suffered from some really poor shooting paired with virtually no peripherals over his last few games. He'll look to right the ship tonight in a fast-paced matchup against a Brooklyn team who have been tough on opposing two guards this season. It was just a week ago that Ellington was averaging 17.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game over a three-game stretch and if he can just return to that type of performance he can easily hit value at these prices. Tyler Johnson is listed as probable after making an early exit against the Bulls on Thursday with an ankle injury, and this play becomes much more appealing if he is held out. It's not the safest of plays, but our system loves the price and opportunity.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 30.37 DK - 31.24
I mentioned the option of paying up for Beal, and you can, but at a discounted price, you can pay up for Tim Hardaway Jr. and get nearly as many raw projected points, and slightly better PPD to boot. THJ is locked into a 31-36 minute rotation over his past several games and has put up some impressive performances as well. He showed his upside last weekend against the Wolves when he dropped 39 real points and paid over 8X PPD, and while we can't expect to see that on a nightly basis, what we can count on is double-digit scoring mixed with a fair share of boards and dimes to get us to the 30 FP mark we need in cash games. Detroit has been solid against the position this season, but over the past two weeks are allowing 17.5% more FP to the position. Vegas has released lines on three of the five games as of this writing early Saturday morning, and all three sit at a 211 line with this one holding the lowest spread of just 3.5 points. THJ should see plenty of time on the boards this evening, and though he'll cost more than the other two guys, he's the safest of the bunch.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 23.74 DK - 23.54
Stanley Johnson has seen 30 and 36 minutes in his last two starts and averaged 26.8 FP in that time. If that is going to continue at near minimum pricing, then you pretty much have to lock him in at the three and move on from there. Especially today, going against the Knicks. New York has allowed the fourth most FP per game to opposing small forwards over their last five. 15 more in that time than their season-long average. Even with some poor shooting (7 for 26 in his last two) Johnson does more than enough in the supporting statistics to make up the difference, averaging 6.5 boards, 4 assists, and 2.5 steals in that span providing enough upside to hit the 6X mark on these prices. I'll have plenty of exposure to Johnson in all formats.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.31 DK - 28.38
Here's another Wizards play where we want to keep an eye on the news. If Otto Porter is out (currently he's listed as questionable) then Kelly Oubre Jr. is in. Porter made an early exit Thursday night in Detroit, leaving after just 15 minutes with an ankle injury. Oubre stepped in for 32 minutes and posted a 14/4/3/1/1 line allowing him to pay over 5X PPD for the third time in four games. With the added playing time he stands to see from Porter riding the pine, Oubre is a lock at these prices and is in consideration in all formats, especially against a Charlotte team allowing the tenth most FP to small forwards on the season. Oubre is one of those bench guys that always has the potential for implied upside, but becomes a much more intriguing play if Porter is out of the equation.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 33.57 DK - 34.31
The Knicks have long had little to play for, but that's not stopping them from running Michael Beasley hard. The post Melo era in New York is off to an exciting start as Beasley stepped in and filled the void left by Anthony, and then stepped things up to another level with the season-ending injury to Kristaps Porzingis. Beasley is playing big-time minutes as of late, averaging 32.6 over his last five contests while shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 18.2 points, 8 boards, 2.4 assists, and 0.8 blocks in that time. In his last four straight Beasley has improved on the performance of the game before, contributing more and more fantasy value and though the price has risen there is still room to grow if Beasley is going to continue playing at the current level. The Pistons have been terrible defending the position over the past five games, and aren't much better on the season. Beasley is an excellent play in all formats and will be in all of my lineups.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 44.79 DK - 44.6
We've made it all the way to power forward and now we have our first top tiered pricing play of the day. You can consider Kevin Durant at the three, he projects for the highest raw projected point total of the day but comes short in PPD projections. Draymond Green will cost you significantly less, and return much more for the price. The Warriors are still hurting. Steph remains out and will be joined by Andre Iguodala, and potentially Omri Casspi on the inactive list. Dray made his return from a three-game absence due to a pelvic contusion followed by an illness on Thursday night against the Bucks and saw just 28 minutes, though he did manage to contribute a full stat line ending the evening 11/5/6/1/2. He should return to playing time in the mid-thirties tonight as the Warriors head to Sacramento to take on a Kings team who could stand a chance of actually keep this one competitive to the buzzer. The Kings are ranked 21st overall defending against the four and Dray should hit 40-50 FP with ease.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 31.9 DK - 32.19
Markieff Morris comes into the day riding a stretch of four straight impressive outings. He posted a season-high four blocks against the Pistons on Thursday night, while the 11 points scored gave him four straight scoring in double digits. Even in Tuesday night's game against the Spurs in which foul trouble led to him only seeing 16 minutes, he managed to score 15 points paired with two boards, an assist, and a steal. Morris just continues to do whatever necessary to build the fantasy score and can be considered regardless of the matchup as long as he continues playing at this level. It's an added bonus that the matchup today is against a Hornets team allowing 35% more fantasy scoring to power forwards in their last ten than their season average. Vegas has yet to release an opening line as of this writing, but look for a shootout in an exciting matchup and consider Markieff in all formats.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 22.27 DK - 23.31
Blake Griffin will be out for at least a week with an ankle bruise, and Anthony Tolliver stands to benefit from the situation in a big way. Tolliver saw 31 minutes in a start for the Pistons on Thursday against the Wizards and posted a 14/2/2/1/1 line. DraftKings was quick to correct on the price for Tolliver, while the FanDuel price only saw a slight increase. Regardless, Tolliver is still underpriced for the opportunity he stands to see in Griffin's absence and is a steal across the industry. Play him everywhere against a Knicks defense ranked 23rd against power forwards in the last five games.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 48.95 DK - 49.4
Our top play of the day comes in the form of Andre Drummond, Drummond is coming off of a double 20's game against the Wizards in which he paired 24 points with 23 boards in 37 minutes. It was the seventh time doing so for the Pistons big man, and no surprise coming from the player who leads the NBA in rebounds per game this season. Drummond has paid over 6X PPD on these prices twice in his last three contests. Over the last four games, Drummond has averaged 39 minutes per game and will be relied on even more in the Pistons frontcourt with the loss of Blake Griffin. The Pistons need a win every time they hit the boards from here on out as they currently sit in the nine spot in the east on the outside looking in at the Bucks who hold a five-game lead over them. Expect Drummond to see all the minutes he can handle, and then some. I love Drummond tonight and will have him everywhere, especially on FanDuel where we get him for a four-digit price tag.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 23.37 DK - 23.15
If you want a value play at the five, then Marcin Gortat is your man. The price on Gortat is on the upswing after he flirted with near minimum pricing earlier this month, but he's still bargain priced and holds an extremely high ceiling for the price tag. The Hornets have been a top ten defense against opposing big men this season, but Gortat, who double-doubled against Detroit on Thursday and scored in double digits in three of his last four, only needs to get us 23 FP to make the play worthwhile, and he has scored at least 21 in four of his last six with 39 FP upside. I'll have Drummond in cash all day, but Gortat could be a difference maker in a large GPP.
Thanks for reading everyone! As always, good luck out there tonight. Please feel free to post any questions or comments below. Cheers!!
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