Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 26.92 DK - 26.96
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.26 DK - 26.24
We kick off point guard with two excellent punt plays that will likely chew up a lot of ownership tonight assuming nothing changes. As of this writing neither of the starters (Schroder and Payton) are confirmed out, but both are considered doubtful. We'll write this up assuming both are going to get the starting spot again. The Suns are in sort of a weird space right now, where they're simultaneously getting blown out constantly but not resting their starters. Ulis has been excellent in both of his last 2 games on these prices, and while I don't know that you can count on 37 minutes it shouldn't matter, even in a game where they are 17.5 point underdogs. As for Taylor, his situation is a little bit different. They're likewise dogs against the Sixers, but not nearly as much so. Taylor has also been filling in very nicely for Schroder, and you can't necessarily extrapolate his season long stats on a per minute basis given his new role in the starting lineup. I don't love paying more for him of course, but expect him to be a chalk cash game play regardless.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 57.4 DK - 60.28
Westbrook was a 45% start in FanDuel cash games against the Spurs, so I expect he'll be a good deal higher owned in an excellent match-up with the Nuggets. While the Thunder aren't playing for as much as the Nuggets, you'd never know from the minutes their starters are playing these days. Denver should test them enough to make sure Westbrook gets his minutes, so it's really a question of whether he's still a good value on these prices. He's been on a stretch of pretty bad match-ups recently, and has still paid 5x-6.5x points per dollar in 3 of his last 5. Jamal Murray will likely draw the Russ assignment here, and he's allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Seems like one of the premier big money payoffs of the night, especially considering most of the other guys are more expensive. If there's one thing holding him out of top lineups, it's just incredible value at other positions.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 55.72 DK - 57.47
Harden was just resting last game, so it's full steam ahead for this one. If you’ve been playing DFS NBA this year, you’re well aware of the disaster that is the Phoenix Suns. For one, they play faster than anyone in the league and haven’t slowed down a bit. Two, Devin Booker has been out and it’s left Troy Daniels and Shaq Harrison to cover the 2. No shot in Hell. If Booker is out again tonight, those two have no chance of slowing down The Beard. Expect a full 34+ minutes as long as the game stays remotely close, but I wouldn't count on it. The spread is going to be close to 20 and nobody would be surprised to see Harden rest the 4th quarter after getting up by 40. There’s a ton of upside here if it stays close, but he’s not as safe as an Anthony Davis or LeBron James. If you go this direction, I'd advise doing so for big tournaments only.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.24 DK - 34.74
As one of the few teams playing for something tonight, it stands to reason that the Nuggets are going to run out their best players for their maximum run. It's true that Barton lost a few minutes last game, but a lot of that was simply due to his shot not falling. He played 36+ minutes in each of his prior two games, and I'd expect him to return to those numbers here. Be careful using DvP stats for OKC at any position. They play match-ups, and they've also been a very different team depending on who is healthy at the two. Corey Brewer has lost a step or two in his older age, and Barton should have an easier defensive match-up than Murray or Chandler. I think he's a solid cash game play with upside if he catches fire.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 62.62 DK - 64.89
In the game with the highest over/under on the slate (227) it's tough to think about fading Lebron considering the opponent and the sheer Manimal-ness of his recent performance. Over the last month he's averaging just absurd numbers with 31 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists per game while also contributing on the defensive end. He's expensive for sure, but this doesn't feel like the spot to get away him against a Pelicans' team ranked right around league average in defensive efficiency. They play at a fast pace which increases volume fantasy scoring and Lebron's Cavs are still in a fight to secure home court in the first round of the playoffs.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 40.64 DK - 41.34
George is coming off a monster fantasy performance against the Spurs on Thursday in which he scored 26 points on 20 shots. The field goal attempts were his most in the last month, and the most in games where Westbrook actually played. It's an encouraging sign for a guy whose fantasy production can fluctuate more than we sometimes feel comfortable with in cash games. But that lack of consistency is driving his price down and he's a downright bargain on FanDuel. His minutes are as secure as anyone in the league and the Thunder are in the Western Conference playoff shuffle. Denver has been serviceable against small forwards this season, but the thin spread and implied total have OKC as a team to target in lineups.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.83 DK - 23.08
Turner was a stain's stain on Wednesday night as an overwhelming chalk play in the absence of Damian Lillard and Moe Harkless. He played 30 minutes but could only muster a mere five points and four rebounds (to go with four fouls) against the vaunted Grizzlies D. And yet despite that performance we are still in a position to buy on his minutes and opportunity against the Clippers. Portland is still in a dogfight for the Western Conference three seed and the Clippers employee enough wing types that Turner should continue seeing mid 30's minutes. He'll need them, but on a night with so many big money options, he represents a way to punt away some salary.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 61.6 DK - 61.52
Are we recommending a lot of expensive plays tonight? Sure. Can you fit them all in your lineup? No, but you can get closer tonight than other nights. The closest decisions will likely be around how to allocate salary around this upper tier. Davis is the around the same price as Lebron on both sites and matched up against the King to boot. AD is putting together a stretch of basketball you rarely see. Over the last month, he's averaging 29 points, 11 rebounds and a nut-so four blocks per game. The Cavaliers' defense, even for all of there trade deadline maneuvering, still rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (28th). They have no obvious matchup for Davis (few teams do) and will struggle to keep up with him especially in the post. Stacking the Pelicans and Cavs' superstars could be the way to go in cash games tonight with extreme upside if the game stays close throughout.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.51 DK - 37.19
Joel Embiid is out for the next two-to-four weeks with a broken face and the Sixers will likely be without their superstar for the rest of the regular season (at the minimum). That leaves a lot of usage and rebounding to go around. Saric has been one of the primary fantasy beneficiaries when Embiid's sat in the past and sees a massive bump in usage with the latter off the court. Saric has a full season 21% usage rate that jumps to 26% with Embiid off the court. The prices are perfectly set in the mid-tier thanks to an extended run of Embiid playing and the Sixers getting a little deeper on the wings and power forward with guys like Ilyasova and Belinelli. But Saric should see the shots in a fantastic matchup against the Hawks.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.79 DK - 26.98
Kevin Love is currently questionable, so make sure you pay attention to his status. If Love is out, lock Green in for 30+ minutes. Green's been a little more scoring dependent than you'd like recently, but that's just kept the price in a very affordable range. He won’t see any one defender, but they rank 22nd against the position and have an overall weak interior after Brow. Green is a safe punt play if Love is out, but it's unclear that you'll need it if you wind up being able to spend down twice at point guard.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 23.1 DK - 22.61
Joel Embiid had his face demolished by the shoulder of Markelle Fultz and officially has an orbital fracture. He’ll miss 2-4 weeks at the minimum and there will be plenty to take advantage of. He’s the biggest shot taker on the team and has the ball in his hands almost every possession. Richaun Holmes slid in for Embiid after he went out last game and ended up playing 21 minutes. He put up 25 fantasy points in that time on 15 points and 7 boards. He’s extremely active when on the floor and this Hawks squad is pitiful. They are in the bottom 10 against all positions, but you have to actually look at who will be there to realize the extent of how bad. Dedmon and Muscala are just 2 of the more inept defenders out there and Holmes will play bully ball under the rim. His minutes won’t be huge, but he always produces when given opportunity and his price is too low. I’m a big fan in all formats.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 39.67 DK - 41.21
If you find yourself with too many punts tonight, or you find yourself simply not trusting Holmes, I think Jordan makes a pretty reasonable (if unexciting) pivot. The $7,500 passes the season long fantasy points per game test, and his athleticism should pose a significant issue for the less athletic Nurkic. The Clippers are one of the few teams still battling it out for a spot in the West, and unless things go crazy here you should be able to count on DJ for 32-37 minutes. I still thing Holmes is a much better value here (and arguably safer on a points per dollar basis) but there's significant upside if Jordan's put back game is on point.
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