Daily Fantasy MLB Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/30/18

Opening Day is in the books and there were plenty of fireworks to kick off the new season. Giancarlo Stanton started his Yankee tenure with a bang, some aces put together solid pitching performances, one game went extra innings and the White Sox ended Danny Duffy's life. We are on to day two with a somewhat smaller Friday slate than usual.

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Pitcher

David Price FD 8500 DK 10100
Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - TB
FD - 36.39 DK - 19.31
Chris Sale cruised through six innings against this newer-look Rays’ team on Thursday, finishing with nine strikeouts, one hit, and no runs through six innings. This isn’t to say Price is on the same level as Sale, but the same reasons we were able to target the matchup hold true on Friday. Tampa Bay is a weak-hitting bunch with plenty of strikeouts in the middle of the lineup from guys like Carlos Gomez (30% K rate in 2017) and C.J. Cron (26%). Price spent extended time on the DL in 2017 and had a variety of other issues (looking at you Eck). Though the pre-DL ERA was relatively in line with his career averages, the xFIP trended to up and over 4.00. The velocity was still there, but his walk rate jumped more than a batter per nine. I’m looking for a bounce-back season after a healthy spring training. If you think Price gets back to his 2015-2016 ways then these salaries are simply too cheap. He’s a -150 favorite and the Rays have the second-lowest implied run line on the day. It isn’t a great day for feel-good cash game pitchers. But Price is in a solid spot.

Robbie Ray FD 9500 DK 8700
Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - COL
FD - 37.22 DK - 20.33
Rostering Ray in cash can be something of a rollercoaster experience as he works long counts and rocks a walk rate that can drive the pitch count up early and often. He walked close to four batters per nine in 2017 and if anything ran a little hot on the strand rate at 85%. But when his fastball/ slider/ curveball trifecta is rolling, few pitchers in baseball have the same kind of strikeout upside. He K’d more than 12 batters per nine in 2017 (second most among qualified starters behind Sale) and faces a Rockies’ team that, after Nolan Arenado, doesn’t have much in the way of righty bats who truly scare you. Ray is a -160 home favorite and the Rockies have an implied run line of 3.6. It’s dicey because of the walks, but Ray has tons of upside if he can keep the pitch count in check.

Kyle Hendricks FD 8200 DK 9900
Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - MIA
FD - 32.96 DK - 16.82
The supposedly weak-hitting Marlins knocked Jon Lester around some on Opening Day, knocking him out in only three and a third innings with three runs on seven hits. I’m not taking too much away from it and this is still a lineup with barely a name in the bunch. Bour has power in the middle of the lineup, but overall it will likely rate as one of the worst in all of baseball when the season’s all said and done. The Cubs might have short leashes early in the season on pitch counts (only 71 for Lester) but Hendricks is in a fine spot as a -200 favorite (highest of the day) and Miami’s 3.4 implied runs are tied for the lowest. Hendricks pushed up to eight K’s per nine last season with a serviceable 3.76 xFIP. He wouldn’t be my lone cash starting pitcher, but he makes for a viable DK SP2.

First Base/Catcher

Freddie Freeman FD 4400 DK 4500
Opponent - PHI (Nick Pivetta) Park - PHI
FD - 14.03 DK - 10.53
It’s always a shame when an elite hitter is forced to play/ be surrounded by a group of young guys and afterthoughts in the lineup. That’s the case with Freeman who’s coming off another fantastic season. After struggling in 2015, he’s put up back-to-back .900+ OPS seasons with ISOs over .400 in both years. The Braves are in a solid spot on Friday against Nick Pivetta who has K upside but struggled with walk rate last season. Freeman is expensive but is worth a look in cash games for Friday.

Ryan Braun FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - SD (Joseph Lucchesi) Park - SD
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.04
The Brewers spent Opening Day in a 12-inning, three-run slog against the Padres. Baseball! The Padres, being the Padres will trot out Joey Lucchesi in game two. He flashed some strikeout potential in the minors but hasn’t pitched beyond AA in his short career. Braun was serviceable in 2017, finishing with a .823 OPS and 17 home runs in 104 games. The numbers are down from his previous, PED driven days but he still has fantasy viability. He’ll swipe the occasional bag (28 steals in the last two seasons) and takes walks (8.9%). This isn’t 2011 Ryan Braun, but we aren’t paying for him either and you have to like the matchup against the young lefty.

Brian McCann FD 2300 DK 3400
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.66
I’m not over-the-moon about this play and honestly am becoming more thankful that FanDuel eliminated some of the catcher decisions this season (though I would have rolled SS into 3B as the combo deal I think). McCann’s big upside is that he’s fortunate enough to hit in the Astros’ lineup even if it is more toward the bottom of the order. They are among the best offenses in baseball and sometimes cheaper hitters like McCann can reap the cascading effects of the cumulative run-scoring of the rest of the team. He showed just enough pop last season with 18 home runs and a mid .700’s OPS that grabbing him on the cheap on both sites won’t kill your lineups (high praise).

Strongly consider Jonathon Lucroy if he’s hitting second in the lineup against the lefty Tyler Skaggs.

Second Base

Ozzie Albies FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI (Nick Pivetta) Park - PHI
FD - 11.54 DK - 9.02
Our system is high on the Braves at their respective price points today and Albies is coming cheaper on both sites for a guy pretty much locked into the two hole. In his first season, he showed a low K rate (14%) which helps mitigate some of Pivetta’s strengths and flashed speed in the minors that translated to eight stolen bases in 244 plate appearances in the majors. What’s very encouraging is the .354 OBP and if he can sustain that hitting in front of Freddie Freeman than we might be buying low on him for the season. A little pop in his bat (.800 OPS) and Albies rates as an excellent, higher floor cash play with big upside if they let him loose on the base paths.

Neil Walker FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - TOR (Aaron Sanchez) Park - TOR
FD - 10.48 DK - 7.92
I don’t typically like recommending hitters who hit so low in the order, but exceptions (at times) can be made for some of the more potent offenses in the game. The Yankees definitely qualify in that regard. Walker projects to hit around 7th, but he’s proceeded by guys like Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez which will increase the plate appearance expectation further down the chain. Walker was excellent getting on base last season with a 12.7% walk rate and .362 OBP. He keeps the strikeouts in check and really the name of the game for him will be getting on base. Aaron Sanchez is coming off a dreadful/ injury-laden season and hasn’t flashed much in the way of big strikeout stuff yet. Walker is in a good spot to get on base in this matchup.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 4100 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 14.25 DK - 10.74
One big issue with shortstop is just the scarcity of offensive talent at the position. There are a couple of big bats that play there, but then a steep, steep drop off to the rest of the player pool. Correa represents, almost nightly, the best option at the position almost (but not totally) independent of the matchup. It will make the central question just what we are willing to pay for the guy (not a problem unique to him of course). I think on this main slate, without any budget-busting starting pitchers, paying for Correa’s elite rate stats, power/patience profile (.941 OPS in 2017) and slot in the Astros lineup is a fairly easy call.

Marcus Semien FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - LAA (Tyler Skaggs) Park - LAA
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.06
Though it wasn’t the case last season, for his career Semien is much better against left-handed pitching. He owns a career 117 wRC+, .343 wOBA and .257 ISO in that split. He projects to hit leadoff for the A’s when they face lefties and that’s exactly what we’re looking for in a higher floor cash game play. Tyler Skaggs is an above average arm, but not by much. He strikes out around eight batters per nine with a pedestrian 4.5 xFIP.

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - MIA
FD - 14.88 DK - 11.14
It’s fairly easy to just recommend all of the Cubs guys basically every night (same with Houston) because their respective offenses are just so damn good. Here I don’t want to go overboard but would rather just highlight Bryant (rather than the whole team) for reasons much the same as Correa. Whereas a guy like Rizzo is in a crowded 1B field and Ian Happ contends with plenty of other OF plays, Bryant is so far ahead of the rest of the third base field that he’s nearly lapping the competition. For our numbers, he’s projected at nearly 2.5 more FanDuel points than the next closest guy. That’s a significant advantage and most of the reason to roster him in cash. Caleb Smith has shown some strikeout flashes, but he also walked the ballpark in his short work with the Yankees last season. The Cubs are death for starters with control issues and it’s worth paying up for Bryant here.

Marwin Gonzalez FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.85
He’s more of a DraftKings’ play for me but is viable on FanDuel if you’re looking to spend down some off of Bryant. He should hit around sixth in the lineup and is coming off a career year in 2017 that saw him put up an eye-popping .907 OPS and .226 ISO. He got on base at a near-elite .377 clip and went yard 23 times. It helps again that he plays in such a great offense that we can take the somewhat decreased plate appearance expectation because of the lineup slot.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4600 DK 5300
Opponent - TOR (Aaron Sanchez) Park - TOR
FD - 16.25 DK - 12.01
Well, that started of about as good as one could have imagined for Stanton in the old Pinstripes. He only went 3-5 with two home runs, a double and four RBIs. No big deal. While we much prefer him against righties and are buying very high on him on both sites, because pitching doesn’t cost an arm and a leg it isn’t all that difficult fitting his salary into the mix. He’s much better for his career against lefties, but is no slouch in the reverse split. The Yankees have one of the highest implied run lines on the board and I don’t even mind buying high on Stanton even coming off the big Opening Day game.

George Springer FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Doug Fister) Park - TEX
FD - 14.83 DK - 11.16
He’s simply underpriced on FanDuel. Coming off a first at-bat home run on Opening Day, Springer is in another good spot against his ex-teammate in Fister. The Ballpark in Arlington plays as one of the best power parks in the game and I’m not entirely scared off by the righty-righty matchup in this game. Doug Fister can pile up ground balls, but he also walked a ton of batters last year (3.8 per nine). I’m not as enamored with Springer’s DraftKings’ price, but we are going to easily fit some big bats into lineups on Friday on FanDuel.

Albert Almora Jr. FD 2000 DK 3200
Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - MIA
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.47
Here’s to hoping he’s hitting around the middle of the lineup against the lefty. In Almora’s limited time in the major,s he’s tagged this platoon split to the tune of a 131 wRC+ and .881 OPS. The Cubs play the lefty-righty matchups and if Almora is hitting anywhere between 5-7 in the order he’s a near auto-play for me at the minimums on FanDuel. Not quite as good a deal on DraftKings, but still very much in the mix. He also helps roster more of a natural Cubs’ stack in GPPs because of the reduced prices all around.

Other considerations: Lorenzo Cain against Joey Lucchese and Stephen Piscotty against Tyler Skaggs.

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