Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo drives against Charlotte Hornets' Jeremy Lamb during an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 26, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
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Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 33.85 DK - 35.99
Welcome to NBA Thursday. I know it's MLB Opening Day, but there's still a solid NBA slate worth touching on. We have 5 games on the board and each deserves to be looked at. We're going to start in Golden State, where the Warriors will host the Bucks tonight. Durant and Draymond will return tonight, but Curry and Thompson will remain out. That will allow Quinn Cook to pick up his usual 34-38 minutes. He's been extremely consistent since Curry went out and has been over 30 fantasy points in four of the last six games. He was over 40 in two of those. His minutes are as safe as ever with Curry still out and this match-up against the Bucks isn't anything to run away from. Against the point guard position, they rank 20th on the year. His price is still affordable on both sites and the NBA optimizer has him projected at 33 fantasy points. His usage will obviously take a hit with a couple of the big boys back, but he's a strong play in all formats and will be a mainstay in all of my cash games.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 28.96 DK - 28.73
We’ll stay in the mid-range with another newcomer to the 2018 scene, Cameron Payne. He hasn’t been very explosive, but the consistency is impressive and the opportunity isn’t going anywhere. He did struggle against the Rockets, but Chris Paul is a tough match-up that I can’t hold against a youngster. Payne should bounce right back tonight against the Heat and grab his usual 26-30 minutes. The Heat are dead average against the position and may be in a tough spot down low with Adebayo out and Whiteside questionable. Payne isn’t going to win you a tournament, but he may afford you someone elsewhere that will. I prefer Cook, but just slightly. Don’t let last game scare you away from Payne.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 37.33 DK - 37.15
On most 5 game slates, Russell Westbrook is being highlighted at point guard. Tonight, we have a few reasons to fade. One is the subpar match-up against a slow-pace, defensive-minded Spurs squad. The other is the price and roster construction it forces you into. It’s not to say Russell Westbrook can’t put up 70 in any game, but I’d rather go Giannis in an up-tempo match up. That leads us right back to this Bucks-Warriors game with Eric Bledsoe. The addition of Brandon Jennings hurt Eric Bledsoe for a game or two, but Blesoe has bounced right back and has been over 30 minutes in 6 of the last 7 games. He now sees a match-up against Quinn Cook, who is not nearly physical enough for a Bledsoe type point guard. He’s not a huge upside guard and won’t shoot 20 times with this team, but he has the ball in his hands a ton, and has still been fairly consistent. Expect the nightly 30-40 fantasy points and don’t be surprised to see this game highlighted throughout.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 35.1 DK - 35.75
I know I’m focusing on a lot from this game, but it’s hard not to when you look at this slate. The game stands far above the rest and deserves the attention. With the Warriors short-handed, we already have another mismatch. Thompson is typically a very strong defender and I would be far away from Middleton here. Instead, he’ll see the putrid defense of Nick Young and Patrick McCaw. Good luck to you both. Middleton is an underrated but elite scorer that puts up 40 fantasy points almost every night. This match-up is way up in PACE and I expect the total to come in around 220-225. Middleton is as safe as it can get at shooting guard and has immense upside in every game. His minutes are also monstrous and locked in, which is comforting. He’s in play in all formats and a great pivot from an expensive Victor Oladipo.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.09 DK - 39.8
The Pacers are still playing for something and Victor Oladipo will continue getting huge minutes. They finally clinched a playoff spot in the East, but are still fighting for seeding and are doing their best to avoid the Cavs and that 6 seed. Tonight, they face off with a lackluster Kings squad that’s just waiting for the season to end. They rank 18th against shooting guards and 22nd since the All-Star Break. Oladipo isn’t putting up the 50 a night he was a couple months ago, but 35-45 isn’t too shabby either under $9k. For big tournaments I do like Middleton just a tad bit more with the price, but it’s close and ‘Dipo will likely be lesser owned.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.24 DK - 25.43
As long as Klay Thompson is out, Nick Young is going to see 30+ minutes a night. Over the last 5 games he's gotten 41, 40, 25, 37, and 31 minutes on the floor. His production is still reliant on his jump shot and that will never change, but the opportunity is plentiful on these prices if he does get hot. I think the addition of KD does hurt Young more than a guy like Cook, which is another thing to consider. With all of that being said, this is just a price and opportunity mismatch. I have no problem targeting Young in any format and trying to take advantage of this game. I’m looking for a lot of exposure and Young adds a little sprinkle while helping you pay up elsewhere. Just understand the risk if he goes cold. The Bucks are average against shooting guards and it doesn’t really matter for his type of game. Young is fine in any format, though I’ll personally keep him restricted to tournaments.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 54.05 DK - 55.07
Opponent - MIL
Let’s dive into the position where you want to spend some money. Kevin Durant is all but confirmed to be returning tonight, so we’re assuming he’s good to go. The Warriors are locked into the 2 seed and have no reason to push anything. That leads me to believe Durant is just about fully healthy and going to play his regular 30+ minutes. Without Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson, he’s going to shoot as much as he wants. He’ll face off with the Bucks and Giannis, who deserves as2 much attention on the other side. He’s entering a game against a fast-paced Warriors team that ranks 22nd against small forwards. It’s typically a mystery as to who will cover Giannis, but it’s safe to assume it’ll be Durant on him with Green down the stretch. Both of these guys are phenomenal plays in all formats and I personally prefer Durant with the savings. I just can’t imagine they rush him back with the spot they are in. All in all, both of these guys deserve a lot of attention and you couldn’t be faulted for going either route - though you should understand you're taking on a lot more risk unless we get definitive news on KD's minutes.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.35 DK - 27.78
It looked like the Heat were going to let Josh Richardson chill for the rest of the season, but change of plans. He’s back over 30 minutes on a nightly basis and playing like he always does: somewhat reliant on the jumper, but typically versatile to get it done either way. He’s put up 30+ fantasy points in 3 of the last 5 games, but posted an 11 and 20 in those other two. He has the ball in his hands a ton, but just has it some nights and is completely off on others. You’ll likely know by the end of the 1st quarter. Small forward is an ugly position, so you’re not going to find anyone safer for the $. The match-up with Chicago and Valentine is a great one, as they rank 23rd against the position. Richardson is fine in all formats and I couldn’t blame you for running him in cash.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 26.29 DK - 25.29
Henson has been picking up a healthy 28+ minutes and is occasionally coming in closer to 35. It’s pivotal for a guy that’s nearly guaranteed production when on the floor. It just comes down to how long he can stay out there. Tonight, he should have some fun running with the Warriors. Sure, Draymond Green is a great defender, but John Henson doesn’t get any plays called for him. He relies on putbacks and rebounds with his upside deriving from rim protection (blocks). With over 25 fantasy points in six of the last seven games, Henson is playing well and doing it in far worse match-ups. Tonight, he’s a great play in all formats and I’ll have exposure in most spots. As a side note, this is the last time we’ll be touching on this game. It’s one you need exposure to and should be seeking out to a degree. I love Henson in all formats and will have him in a ton of my cash games.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.39 DK - 34.1
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.2 DK - 28.5
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 20.08 DK - 19.76
I don’t want to see three names here, either. I really do wish either James Johnson or Kelly Olynyk were on a different team because it would just open up so much. Tonight, there’s a lot going on with this situation. Bam Adebayo has been ruled out and Hassan Whiteside is questionable. If Whiteside plays, all three of these guys are meh plays at best. If Whiteside is out, all three are worth a long hard look. With them both sitting last game, here are the minutes we looked at. Olynyk - 25, Johnson - 32, Mickey - 18. Olynyk is the most expensive and somewhat hard to test if you don’t think he stretches past 25 minutes. James Johnson can do it all and fits in nicely against a bad Bulls team. Mickey is also a great punt, but heavily reliant on the Whiteside news. The Bulls are a putrid defense (24th vs power forwards) since the break and it has most to do with them not knowing who will start on a daily basis. I personally like Johnson the most and have a lot of exposure, but Mickey is a great punt and Olynyk is a prime tourney option. Let’s move on!
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 45.49 DK - 45.82
Center isn’t all that great of a spot tonight. There are plenty of names to choose from, but something wrong about each and every one of them. Fortunately, we have a guy like Andre Drummond. Drummond isn’t “match-up proof”, but he also doesn’t perform like a typical center. Tonight, he’s going to dominate the combo of Mahinmi and Gortat. Neither have any chance against one of the best big men in all of basketball. The Wizards play faster than the Pistons and they have no problem playing up to their PACE. Drummond is always up and down production-wise, but can put up 20/20 on any night and win you a tournament. His size will be necessary tonight and either of the opposing big men have any chance at all. His price is high and it’s always tough, but Drummond is a great play in all formats that could very well end up in my cash games.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 33.59 DK - 32.66
Like I said, Center is pretty thin and we’re going to remain in the high-end because of it. If you’re absolutely forced to pay down, I guess you can go with Gortat or Koufos. We’ll instead look at Steven Adams and the Thunder vs the Spurs, which is an average match-up. The Spurs play slow, which hurts, but Gasol and Aldridge should have trouble dealing with Adams' athleticism. Adams is going to see his usual 34+ minutes and put up 35+ fantasy points. The game is expected to stay close and Adams is a great way to get over a position without much excitement. He’s certainly not going to hurt you, and I’m not sure you can say that about anyone else at the position. I love Drummond if you can afford it, but Adams is just as good for the price. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below with any questions or comments.
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View Comments
I think we need to be realistic about Payne's minutes even with all the injuries the last few times out he has been right around 25 minutes. Also, he has been a below a FP minute guy. Also, its a bad matchup as the Heat could conceivably hold them to around 90 points, With Cook being such a sold value not sure I will be going double cheap.