We already highlighted Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw in our Opening Day picks article. We also highlighted the Astros and Royals as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - ATL (Julio Teheran) Park - ATL
FD - 34.82 DK - 18.48
Nola has, somewhat quietly, put together three solid seasons with his 2017 campaign nearly mirroring the 2016 numbers. He struck out close to 10 batters per nine (9.86) and finished with a 3.38 xFIP. Even the wins ticked up some as the Phillies youth movement was able to put together runs near the end of the season. He’ll open the season against the Braves who’s own youth “movement” is underway with the only real credible lineup threat of Freddie Freeman in the middle of the order. The bottom of the lineup has no real power to speak of. The Braves have an implied expected run line of 3.8 (one of the lower of the middle tier pitching options) and Nola is a slight -120 favorite. Atlanta, for all their lack of pop, don’t strike out that much (6% less than league average in this split - assuming all of our lineup assumptions are correct). In this tier of pricing Nola has as much strikeout upside as anyone in this tier.
Opponent - KC (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 32.94 DK - 17.01
Duffy’s 2017 season fell short of the strides he’d made in 2016 and it’s a little tough to figure where he lands going forward. He saw a marked increase in K/9 from 2015 to 2016 (6.72/9 up to 9.42/9) but then dropped to 8 K’s per last season. That’s all over the map and has me leaning towards 2017 being something like the projectable performance moving forward. He’s a slight -135 favorite against a young White Sox squad that could have a lot of swings and misses this season. We have their current lineup striking out 10% more than league average against lefties. And while there is some power in the middle guys like Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu have a 20% K rate against left-handed pitching and Matt Davidson hitting fifth went down on strikes more than 30% of the time in that split. There is strikeout and win upside for Duffy on this Opening Day slate.
Reminder: We covered the Astros and Royals in our Opening Day picks article as featured stacks.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Jake Odorizzi (Twins)
Featured Options
Opponent - BAL (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.3
Opponent - BAL (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 10.43 DK - 7.97
Opponent - BAL (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.64
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - MIN
FD - 9.48 DK - 7.11
In something of a surprise the Orioles will enter the season with Crush Davis as their leadoff hitter. It’s a bit curious considering the walks haven’t historically equaled out the massive amount of K’s (37%). But he is of course better against righties and targeting him against lower K upside pitchers is typically the way to go. Odorizzi doesn’t completely fit that bill, but Davis’s increased plate appearance expectation alone makes him one of the best value plays on the slate.
Machado and Schoop highlight the two and three slots in the lineup. Machado had something of a down year, though a lot of it came from a dreadful first half of the season. He picked it up in the second half. For his career, he’s platoon neutral which doesn’t have me scared off the righty-righty matchup. School meanwhile, had a career year in 2017 with 32 home runs and an .841 OPS. He ran a little hot in BABIP, but the power was there.
The Twins will send out Jake Odorizzi who despite pitching half his games in one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball last season, still finished with a 5.10 xFIP (5.43 FIP) and walked nearly four batters per nine. He’s one of the weaker arms going into this Opening Day slate and though Minnesota doesn’t play well as a power park, we are mostly looking to avoid the stud arms in terms of stacking.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ty Blach (Giants)
Featured Options
Opponent - LAD (Ty Blach) Park - SF
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.24
Opponent - LAD (Ty Blach) Park - SF
FD - 11.54 DK - 8.74
Opponent - LAD (Ty Blach) Park - SF
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.12
You have to feel for the Giants. They were supposed to start the season with Madison Bumgarner on the mound, or at worst Jeff Samardzija. But both are on the shelf and instead Ty Blach will take the mound to open the season. His numbers over his first 38 games are pretty damn bad. He struck out only four batters per nine (mind-bogglingly low) and he walked more than half as many guys (2.36 per nine). His 5.01 xFIP was thanks in large part to his 47% ground ball rate. It’s the only thing keeping him anywhere close to the majors (where he probably shouldn’t be).
The Dodgers are expensive on this opening slate, but could feature three power righty bats in the first four slots on the lineup. Chris Taylor came somewhat out of nowhere in 2017. In his first 318 career plate appearances he hit one home run. Last year he hit 21 in 568 plate appearances. He hit lefties to the tune of a .837 OPS and the free swinging nature should mean he’s a candidate for plenty of contact in this matchup.
Kemp comes over from the Braves and targeting him against low K arms is the way to go. He doesn’t walk much (5.8% last year) but he has 30 home run upside if he can last a whole season.
I’m most encourage by rostering Puig at somewhat reduced prices if he’s hitting in the middle of the lineup. He spent much of 2017 near the bottom of the order but still finished with a .833 OPS and 28 home runs. He was terrible against lefties last year but almost all of it was BABIP related. He walked more than he struck out in that split and if those numbers regress even moderately we could be looking at a career season. This matchup is the perfect jumping off point.
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