Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic, left, of Serbia, looks to pass the ball as Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, in Denver. The Nuggets won 127-120. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 41.2 DK - 41.15
Welcome to NBA Monday! The new week brings along a fun 5-game slate with a whole lot to decipher. There are a couple spots that stick out above the rest, but every game deserves some attention. We’ll kick things off in Detroit with Lonzo Ball. Ball is playing some of the best basketball of the season and he’s playing a whole lot of it, too. Over the last 6 games, he’s averaged 40.5 minutes per game. 44 and 42 in the last two. Now, Isaiah Thomas is out and the Lakers have no choice but to stretch Lonzo. Isaiah has been picking up big minutes and he shoots every time he touches the ball, so there some shots to take as well. It’s weird to say, but expect another 38 or more productive minutes. He’s going to be facing Ish Smith and Reggie Jackson, so the success isn’t hard to imagine. They rank 19th against the position and 23rd since the break. Lonzo spreads it around like crazy and is far from reliant on any 1 stat. With a 215 total and 4.5 spread, Vegas thinks it stays close and relatively high-scoring. Lonzo is an elite play in all formats.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.45 DK - 36.99
When this season is said and done, Terry Rozier is going to be one of the real memories. Brad Stevens has turned another run of the mill player into a fantasy star. That might seem crazy, but it’s hard to disagree when he’s been so effective on both sides of the floor. Rozier has been a dynamic defender and it’s why he made the NBA in the first place. His offense has improved like no other and he’s been insanely great. Not only at scoring, but Rozier has stayed around 5-9 assists and is one of the best rebounding guards you will find. He literally does it all. While playing huge minutes. He’s going to continue getting 34+ minutes with Kyrie out and the shots aren’t going anywhere. Tonight, he faces off with a Suns team that ranks dead last against the position. He’s one of my personal favorite plays on this slate and the lineup optimizer agrees. Rozier is going to put up another 35+ fantasy points and should be used in every format.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 32.88 DK - 33.67
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 21.86 DK - 22.11
The Knicks have elected to go young, with Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke starting for Mudiay and Lee. They faced off with the Wizards just last night and these two guys had very different nights. Burke shot over 50% and ended up putting 32 fantasy points on the board. Ntilikina, on the other hand, was atrocious from the field and finished with a putrid five fantasy points. Gross. He does play huge minutes on occasion and you have to think that is the plan with him in the starting lineup. He's minimum priced and you're going to get some incredible value if his shot isn't ice cold. Burke is probably the safer of the two and a near lock for 25+ fantasy points. You don't get excited about either of these Knicks guards, but we have to find value somewhere. The NBA lineup optimizer has these two sitting at the top of the point per dollar rankings, so definitely pay attention to both in all formats.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 35.77 DK - 36.3
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 21.02 DK - 21.42
Gary Harris is still out, so these guys still deserve attention. On the more expensive end, Will Barton will pick up 34+ minutes. He got close to 50 fantasy points in two of the last three games and is obviously drawing a big usage increase with Gary Harris off the floor. Barton is still fairly priced on both sites and you can play him in all formats. He's typically a tournament play only, but the usage bump makes him a lot safer and less reliant on just his jump shot. As for Devin Harris, he's a prime value play. He's been over 24 minutes in 4 straight games and got up to 28 in the last one. This match-up is great for both of them. Against shooting guards, they rank 28th in the league. Redick is atrocious and the Sixers play pretty fast. Barton and Harris are both elite plays in both formats.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 33.3 DK - 33.51
We just touched on Lonzo Ball and how crazy his minutes have been. KCP has seen the same extended minute increase of recent and it’s not going to stop now. If anything, the absence of Isaiah Thomas is only going to help the matter. Caldwell-Pope takes a ton of shots and is the only real minute threat from the bench. The Lakers are running a very tight ship right now and I doubt it ever changes this year. The Pistons aren’t bad against the position, but do rank 16th since the break and have been deteriorating on defense. We’ll touch on the Pistons later, but this is a game we are all over in every format. At nearly every position. Caldwell-Pope is going to see another 40 or so minutes and can be counted on for 25-35. His price is solid and one of the safest cash game plays on the entire slate.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 20.59 DK - 20.85
Jaylen Brown returned from injury last night and played 25 productive minutes. With that injury being a concussion and him being completely cleared, minutes shouldn't be much of an issue. He's been still getting his cardio and will be over 30 minutes on any given night. I'm not sure it'll be in his second game back, but we might not need it against the Suns' putrid defense. Aside from playing faster than anyone in the entire league, the Suns rank 28th against shooting guards and may be without Devin Booker. Brown is cheap on both sites and close to a cash game lock for me on DraftKings. I do like the three guys above a lot more, but Brown is a great mid-range option who you can count on 20+ fantasy points from.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.99 DK - 29.4
We now get to the ugliest position on this slate. And it's not even close. Josh Jackson is the most expensive player on the board and we don't even know how many minutes he'll end up with (or whether or not he will even start). We'll move a bit down and look in the mid-range, where we find an affordable Michael Beasley. Beasley played 31 minutes last game and 30+ in two of the last three games. He's also been over 28 fantasy points in 3 of the last four games, with a ceiling in the 50's that he hit a couple weeks ago. MKG is supposed to be a good defender, but the Hornets rank 23rd against small forwards on the year. It has a lot to do with the lack is rim protection and overall poor team defense. Beasley is going to continue his shooting spree and there is nobody to really contest him. Look for another 25+ fantasy points and don't be surprised to see 40. Small forward is ugly and I will have Beasley in every single lineup.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.35 DK - 25.94
Like I said, small forward stinks. The Nuggets are still playing for something and Chandler is leaned on heavily at the position. Let's take a look at the minutes. Over the last 6 games, he's played 40 minutes in 4 of them. My god. I don't know how long the Nuggets think they can ride him, but he's been great when on the floor. He's gotten above 40 fantasy points twice in the last week and is typically sitting around 20-30. Tonight, he faces off with Robert Covington and the Sixers. They rank 17th against the position and don't mind running with a team like the Nuggets. His price is still fair at or under $6k, so you're not needing a ton in cash games. He can be played in all formats at this position and I don't have much worry about him being the guy that hurts me. Let's move on to a more prosperous position in power forward.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 36.63 DK - 38.01
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 42.97 DK - 45.55
These are another two Lakers who have been picking up huge minutes. Kuzma has actually seen more recently, grabbing 40+ in each of the last two games. He's been over 30 fantasy points in three straight and is a guy that can go for 50 on any given night. Randle has settled around that 35-minute mark and it doesn't look like he'll nudge. He's the key cog of this offense and is expected to put up 35-45 on any given night. Randle has an even higher upside and has gone for 60 a few times this season. The Pistons don't sound like a good match-up on the surface, but actually rank 24th against power forwards and 18th against small forwards (where Kuzma plays a lot). They are both fairly priced and I'm cool with either in any format. Personally, the savings on Kuzma is something I am all over and could end up with 100% exposure. Randle will still be scattered throughout both my cash and tournaments.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 43.08 DK - 44.48
I've touched on a lot of Lakers up to this point, but it's time to switch things up with the big men. Let's start with Blake Griffin. He had to take some time to get the training wheels off, but they are certainly gone. He's been over 50 fantasy points in 4 of the last 6 games and is now the leader of this offense. He's seen a 28% usage rate on the month and is only trending upwards. Tonight, he matches up with Julius Randle and the Lakers. They rank 27th against the power forward position and Griffin is going to dice them up when on the floor. His minutes have been somewhat dicey, but typically settle around 34-36 in close games. Let's get to a center position that includes another Detroit beast.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.42 DK - 48.21
Center is a solid position on tonight's slate and one that may dictate a lot. Let's start with 2 guys that could very easily pick you up 60 fantasy points. First, Nikola Jokic. Jokic and the Nuggets are still playing for something, and it's why he's been over 35 minutes in 4 of the last 5 games. Tonight, he faces off with Joel Embiid and the Sixers. They sit 25th against the center position and have been only rending downwards. Jokic is one of the best DFS players in the league and has put up 50 fantasy points in 4 of the last 7 contests.He put up 35-50 in those other 3. He's getting the ball on almost every single possession and the entire offense is running purely through him. He's an elite play in all formats, but we shouldn't stop there. Let's look at a couple more guys who are in extremely solid spots.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 47.35 DK - 47.7
The price of Drummond is up there, but he's found a way to still be the 3rd most expensive option at the position. Let's just briefly touch on those other 2. Towns faces the Grizzlies and while there is always upside, I'll pass against the best defensive center (arguable I know) in the league. Embiid has a great match-up with Denver but isn't getting nearly enough minutes. That leads us to Andre Drummond, who is going to demolish the Lakers. It has a lot to do with Brook Lopez and how atrocious he is at everything other than scoring. Besides being a bad defender, he's easily one of the worst rebounders in all of the league. Julius Randle will be plenty occupied with Blake Griffin, so they can't double-team or double-box him out. Drummond just put up 70 fantasy points last game, so who knows what the upside really is. He's going to dominate when in the game tonight and should get to 50 fantasy points. I like Jokic more, but barely and only in cash games.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 35.21 DK - 35.24
If you're not looking to pay up at Center, we have a phenomenal pivot here in Brook Lopez. While he's been fighting a sore back, you wouldn't know it by watching him. He's been over 30 minutes in five straight games and seven of the last eight. He's putting up 30-40 fantasy points on most nights and has been more consistent recently than any time in the past few years. The Lakers play a tight rotation and Lopez is very involved in the offense. He's held a 25% usage rate with Thomas off the court and it's safe to assume another 35+ fantasy points here. We touched on Andre Drummond a second ago and we know why he will dominate, but it works the other way around. Lopez will be able to stretch the floor and Drummond isn't going anywhere near that three-point line. I would love to go Drummond or Jokic, but Lopez is a fine pivot if you just can't afford them. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below if you have any questions or comments!
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