James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
Welcome lovers of daily fantasy hoops action! We've got a five-game slate scheduled this evening tipping off at 7 PM ET, and while some games hold much more appeal than others, each has something to offer for our daily fantasy lineups. Let's go position-by-position, and give you the top plays as determined by our projection system.
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.61 DK - 31.89
D.J. Augustin and the Magic host the Phoenix Suns tonight in a game that features two teams in full tank mode looking for that top lottery spot. That's not the only thing these two teams have in common. They also play some of the worst defense the NBA has to offer and run the court at a breakneck pace. With a 101.6 combined pace factor (the highest of the night), look for plenty of daily fantasy opportunity to come out of this one. Augustin, for one, presents a fantastic value play at the point ($5300 on both sites) and our NBA lineup optimizer loves DJA to return the top points per dollar (PPD) at the position tonight. He saw just 25 minutes on Thursday in an absolute drubbing in Philadelphia, but prior to that averaged 33 minutes in his last three starts. While every now and then Augustin manages to catch lightning in a bottle and light up the scoreboard, he's much more reliable as a cash game play who only needs to net us 25 fantasy points to make the play worthwhile, and that's where I'll likely deploy him.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.81 DK - 29.27
This game doesn't hold a whole lot of fantasy appeal, and for the most part, we will not give it much attention, but we have to consider Cameron Payne whenever the Bulls play as long as Kris Dunn remains out, which at this point seems it could be the remainder of the season. Payne has started three straight games for Chicago now. And despite leaving the game in the third quarter for X-rays after suffering what looked like a leg injury, he managed to return and ended the night with 30 minutes and a 17/4/6/0/1 line. This game has the lowest total (210) and highest spread (11.5) coming out of Vegas of tonight's games, and Detroit will try to slow down Chicago's faster pace of play limiting any upside Payne could have, but he should easily get us the 25-30 fantasy points (FP) we look for in cash games. As long as nothing springs up overnight with the leg to land him on the injury report consider Payne as a strong value option at the point.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 39.09 DK - 39.06
Chris Paul is doubtful to play tonight. Kemba Walker plays in Dallas in the game with the slowest combined pace, and one of the lower projected totals of the night. If you're looking to pay big money at point guard look no further than Lonzo Ball. Ball has been terrible shooting the rock lately (to put it mildly). He hasn't put together a double-digit scoring performance since March 9th in Denver and is shooting only 34% from the field this month. What he has lacked for the Lakers, however, he has made up for with us daily fantasy basketball lovers by stuffing the stat sheet from all sides. Despite averaging just six points in his last six games, Ball has also contributed 6.8 boards, 8.5 assists, one block, and 1.8 steals in that stretch as well which has allowed him to manage 5X PPD or better on these prices in four of those. With the peripherals in place and a steady run of minutes in the mid to upper thirties, we can overlook the shooting to consider Ball in cash games with the hopes that he finds his shot against a Memphis defense that is average defending the position that could lift him up in tournaments as well. Consider Lonzo everywhere.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 67.19 DK - 70.86
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 34.87 DK - 36.98
We've already established that Chris Paul is doubtful tonight for the Rockets which means good things for both of these guys. Not that he needs any boost to his fantasy appeal, but James Harden sees his usage jump 2.9% to a staggering 39.6% when CP3 is off the court. Harden tweaked his ankle Thursday night against the Pistons, but managed to play 40 minutes in the overtime win. He's listed as probable and with Paul doubtful and Houston looking to maintain their lead over Golden State, I suspect it will take a broken bone to keep Harden off the court tonight. The Beard isn't the only beneficiary of Paul's absence. Eric Gordon drew the start at point guard on Thursday night with Paul sidelined and contributed 22 points in 41 minutes. Dating back to December 22nd Gordon has started five games at the point for Houston, and removing the 1/30 game where he exited after 10 minutes with a back injury from the equation Gordon has played an average of 39.8 minutes in those starts and posted 31.3 FanDuel points (FDP) in those games. This game has the highest projected total coming out of Vegas and a 101.2 combined pace factor. It's a prime matchup for both of these players against a New Orleans team allowing the third most FP to both point guards and shooting guards. DraftKings has wasted no time in correcting on the price for Gordon, limiting him to a cash game play over there, but he remains a bargain on FanDuel making him an elite option in all formats, whereas the beard, as always is in play in all formats on all sites.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 32.59 DK - 32.83
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is coming off of a monster outing in New Orleans on Thursday night in which he fired on all cylinders dropping 28 points in 42 minutes, to pair with four rebounds and two assists. It was a nice bounce back for KCP who was relatively quiet in his previous three outings failing to post over 25 fantasy points (FP) in each of those. The resurgence is coming largely courtesy of the trey, as Caldwell-Pope has shot 57.8% from beyond in his last two games, and will look to continue shooting straight heat against a Memphis team ranked 26th overall defending the position. KCP is a strong cash game play with definite upside in the right matchup, of which this is one. Consider him everywhere.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.96 DK - 40.15
KCP will spend much of his night contending with this guy. When healthy, Tyreke Evans has been a bright spot on an abysmal Memphis squad this season. Evans rested two games early this week, before returning for just 19 minutes on Thursday in what quickly became a bloodbath in Charlotte. 'Reke should be plenty rested for this one at home against the Lakers who come in as 5 point favorites in a game that's opening with a 218 O/U. Evans managed a respectable 16/7/4/1/1 line in those 19 minutes on Thursday and still managed to pay nearly 4X PPD. He should return to his normal 30-35 minutes tonight and makes for a top play across the board.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.97 DK - 36.26
Devin Booker has missed three straight games now for the Suns, most recently last night's game against the Cavs. He tried the hand out prior to game time, but it was still too sore for him to play. That will probably mean he will once again be listed as doubtful tonight, and likely will miss a fourth tilt. With T.J. Warren also out for the foreseeable future lock and load Josh Jackson. Jackson saw a drop off in minutes last night in Cleveland, but that can be attributed to foul trouble while contending with LeBron James through much of the night. He should return to his 36-37 minute allotment that he picked up in the previous two games in a prime matchup against the sixth most generous team to opposing small forwards. The price is coming up quickly on Jackson, but he's still at a point where we can consider him in cash, and he has shown a 50FP ceiling on multiple occasions this season, so lock him in everywhere with confidence.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.17 DK - 33.28
We haven't focused on this game yet, but there is definitely some fantasy value to consider coming out of it. Even with the slowest combined pace of the night, this game still sports a modest 214.5 opening line from our friends in Vegas and plays like Jeremy Lamb hold solid fantasy appeal. Lamb has started three straight games for the Hornets now while Nic Batum has been sidelined with an Achilles injury. Batum is doubtful for tonight's game meaning Lamb should once again draw that start for the Hornets. While the price has risen quickly on Lamb limiting his upside, he has proven capable of easily paying value on these prices averaging 31.1 FP in 29 minutes through his three starts. Lamb provides a value alternative to Jackson on DraftKings, or pairs nicely with him in cash games on FanDuel. If you're looking for what could be a low owned GPP play at the position with plenty of potential upside let's move on to our next play
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 27.38 DK - 27.32
Jonathon Simmons, Evan Fournier, and Jonathan Isaac all remain out for Orlando who have had a terrible run of injuries this season, contributing to their poor season and current run for the top lottery spot. With the aforementioned trio out on Thursday, Mario Hezonja drew his 22nd start of the season but really let his fantasy owners down posting a 9/3/2 line in 24 minutes against the Sixers. Despite the struggle in Philly, Hezonja is still an intriguing value play at the three, going against the eighth worst defense against the position in the past week. Over their last five games the Suns have surrendered over 50 FP per game to opposing small forwards, and while we don't expect any kind of explosion like that from Hezonja, he still makes for an interesting tournament play with plenty of upside, and could go under the radar after turning plenty of people off with his last game. I won't chance it in cash, but I will definitely have tournament lines with Hezonja for value.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.94 DK - 33.09
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.95 DK - 40.06
Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma have really established themselves as the season winds down. Kuzma has benefitted greatly with the loss of Brandon Ingram who has missed almost the whole of March of with a groin strain. Ingram is inching close to a return but is doubtful for tonight, which means Kuzma should continue on his solid stretch in the starting five. Through nine starts Kuzma has averaged 37.6 minutes and 32.9 FP per game with flashes of 40 FP upside. Then we have Julius Randle. Randle managed to post his fifth double-double in his last six games against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans on Thursday night. Now in his third full season, Randle has established himself as a premier power forward in the league capable of performing against the leagues best and is a true daily fantasy asset worthy of consideration every time the Lakers play. He's averaging 1.15 FP per minute this season and has been on a steady run of minutes in the mid to upper thirties. Both of these guys are fantastic options for your lineups tonight. Randle will easily net you more raw points, but if you need the savings, don't fret on settling with Kuzma as he leads the position in PPD projections in our system.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.77 DK - 37
Aaron Gordon is now two games back from a five-game absence courtesy of a concussion suffered earlier this month in a game against the Lakers. He's averaged 30 minutes in his first two games back and has been impressive dropping 16 against Toronto in his first game before double-doubling against Philly on Thursday with 10 points and 11 boards. Vegas has yet to release an opening line on this game between the Magic and the Suns, but given how fast these teams like to play with their altogether lack of any real defense, I'm expecting plenty of scoring and a whole lot of back and forth creating a ton of fantasy opportunities. This could be a game where Gordon let's loose which is why I'll be targeting him in tournaments on FanDuel with the similarly priced Randle as a cash option. On DraftKings however, Gordon is priced at a significant discount to Randle, creating more all-around appeal for the Magic's star forward.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 40.88 DK - 42.23
I'm going to give you two higher priced options at the five before closing out with a cheaper value option, though I don't think we necessarily need to go too cheap at the position tonight. Harden is the only top-tiered play we've looked at. Anthony Davis is the only other player priced over $10K on DraftKings, but he's played 140 minutes through four games in the past week. FanDuel also has Drummond in the $10K club, and while I don't hate the play he's only eclipsed 50 FP twice this month. So we'll drop down to Dwight Howard and Nik Vucevic. First Vucevic, whose price is down significantly across the industry. That $7600 on DraftKings is especially nice to look at. I think we've covered this matchup from every angle. We've got a fast-paced contest with two poor defenses, in what will likely be one of the highest scoring games on the slate. Vucevic was nearly nonexistent on the court for 21 minutes against Joel Embiid Thursday night and will look to bounce back in a big way back home against the defense ranked 22nd overall defending against opposing big men. Our system is projecting Vucevic to lead the way in raw points and PPD tonight, and though I think personally, I prefer Howard, if I find I need the extra savings, I'll have no trouble settling on Vuc.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.51 DK - 40.77
This is the play I'm eyeing at the five Friday night heading into Saturday's slate. Howard served a one-game suspension while the Hornets played the Grizzlies on Thursday, and should return to his rightful spot in the rotation tonight. Howard, like the rest of the Charlotte rotation, was shut down by the Sixers on Monday night in South Philly, but looking past that game, we see Howard has been posting some monster fantasy performances in the past couple of weeks. He's hit 60 FP three times in his last six contests which is good for over 7X PPD on these prices. This game doesn't fit the same fantasy narrative over the PHO/ORL game, with the slowest combined pace factor (99.0) of the night. It does, however, have the 214.5 opening line and a mere one point spread, meaning Howard should see a full allotment of minutes. Both of these plays should be fine options in all formats, and neither should be a strain to fit into our lineups. If you do have a hard time fitting either of these two or just want a value play for your tournament lines, let's look at a play in the lower tier.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 23.36 DK - 22.96
Alex Len came off the bench last night in Cleveland, and still managed 25 minutes for the second straight game. Over his last four games, three of which were starts, Len has posted solid lines and paid decent fantasy value including a 42 FP game against the Pistons on Tuesday night. Despite last night's performance, I feel much better with Len knowing he's starting, which shouldn't be an issue, with this being the first game on the schedule this evening. If Len draws the start tonight against Nikola Vucevic and a Magic team ranked 29th overall defending against the position, he is an excellent GPP option at a value price.
Thanks for reading, and as always good luck out there tonight. Please leave any questions or comments below. Cheers!
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View Comments
The Suns are the best team vs. centers in the last 5 games, only giving up 27 points average a game. Yet they’re are the hands down worst vs PF’s giving up 83 point average a game in the last 5. I more than understand Gordon, but just because it’s the Suns doesn’t make Vucevic the top center of the night. No thanks.
Over the last five they've surrendered the fewest (28), go back another five and over the last ten they've surrendered seventh most (41), which is why I chose to spotlight the season average which is right in the middle (34) ninth most. I said I didn't love the play as much as the system does, but I do see the appeal. Personally, I'm still leaning more to Dwight.