Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - STP 500

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STP 500

Martinsville Speedway - Ridgeway, VA
Track - .526 Mile Short Track

The Kevin Harvick win streak came to an end early in the race last week as he was pressing hard in Stage 1 and an attempt to side draft off Kyle Larson ended up with the #4 car in the wall. He made repairs but it wasn't nearly enough as he finished the race nine laps behind. How big are the stages and new points system(2nd year) you ask? Harvick dropped from first in the standings going into Fontana to eighth after the race. You new leader is 2017 series champion, Martin Truex Jr, who dominated the race leading 125 laps and won by over 11 seconds.

Some of the other stories from last week include Kyle Larson's two-mile track streak(four straight wins) come to an end although he did finish runner-up on Sunday. Daytona 500 winner, Austin Dillon, picked up Top 10 this week and seven-time champion, Jimmie Johson, finally picked up his first Top 10 of the season. Overall, it was another exciting race at Auto Club Speedway and if you missed it, check out the highlight below before we move on to this week's race.

This week the Monster Energy Cup Series travels back East to Martinsville Speedway for the STP 500 this Sunday. It marks the first short track race of the season and no better place to start than the Paperclip in Martinsville. It produces some exciting bumping and banging style racing and with that comes a ton of cautions(double-digit cautions in nine of the last 11 races). If your drier's car makes it through the race without some scratches, dented metal, or other damage he just isn't trying hard enough to win here at Martinsville. One of the big storylines going into this race is the relationship between Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott after last fall's playoff race that ended up with Hamlin putting Chase into the wall, ending his shot at his first win and pretty much ending his playoff hopes.

From a fantasy perspective, the race is 500 laps this week which means a ton more opportunities for dominator points from laps led and fast laps. Looking at some of the race trends over the last three years, there have been at least two drivers who have led 100 or more laps in five of the last six races and twice a driver has led over 200 laps(both Kyle Busch). This doesn't mean we should discount place differential, however, as at least six drivers have picked up double-digit place differential in each of the last six races here.

From a strategy standpoint, while there are drivers who have dominated here, this race can be unpredictable with the number of cautions and crashes that happen. Because of this, a contrarian strategy for GPP's can definitely be used. It is a race where you can find a few pivots off some of the chalk and the chances of winning are increased as the chalk fails at a much higher rate than other tracks.

Let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race adn then some early week targets.

Last Six Winners at Martinsville Speedway

• 2017 Fall - Kyle Busch (started 14th, led 184 laps, 137 DK points)
• 2017 Spring - Brad Keselowski (started 4th, led 116 laps, 123 DK points)
• 2016 Fall - Jimmie Johnson (started 3rd, led 92 laps, 81.5 DK points)
• 2016 Spring - Kyle Busch (started 7th, led 352 laps, 180.5 DK points)
• 2015 Fall - Jeff Gordon (started 5th, led 35 laps, 70.3 DK points)
• 2015 Spring - Denny Hamlin (started 15th, led 91 laps, 120.3 DK points)

Top 5 Current Track History at Martinsville Speedway

Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski have absolutely dominated the last two years here at Martinsville. They are the only two drivers to finish each of the last four races inside the Top 5 with Busch winning twice and Keselowski winning once. When looking at fantasy production, it's Busch who has enjoyed the most success as he has a series-leading 813 laps in those races with Keselowski second in that department with 224 laps led. Jimmie Johnson has the other win in that timeframe which was his only Top 5 in the last four races but he still holds the third-best average finish(9.3) and average DK points per race(59.0). Next up is Austin Dillon who has finished Top 5 in each of the last two Spring races here and looking at the last four races overall, has picked up double-digit place differential in each. Last week's winner, Martin Truex Jr, rounds out the Top 5 as he has been trending much better here at Martinsville lately. He has Top 10's in each of the last two fall races and has the third-most laps led(189) of all active drivers in the last four races.

Top 5 Career Track History at Martinsville Speedway

Not only has Jimmie Johnson been good here recently but he has also been elite here at Martinsville over his career with nine wins, 19 Top 5's and 24 Top 10's with a 7.7 average finish. After his first Top 10 of the season last week, things are looking up and now he returns to one of his most successful tracks. Denny Hamlin has struggled here in his last two Spring race(30th, 39th) but Martinsville has been arguably his best track throughout his career as he has tallied five wins and an impressive 10.0 average finish. Brad Keselowski has just one career win here but has been very consistent with 10 Top 10 finishes in 16 races and has finished Top 5 in four straight like I mentioned above. It has been the same story for Kyle Busch as well as he was up and down early in his career here at Martinsville but with his recent success of five straight Top 5 finishes and two wins, he ranks fourth with a 13.1 career average finish which gives him the best average DK points per race(116.8) in that time. Clint Bowyer went through a bad stretch at the end of his time with Michael Waltrip Racing and the season he was with HScott Motorsports but has also been consistent over his career with a 14.0 average finish. He is still looking for his first win and it could very well come this week as the #14 car is off to a hot start to the season with two Top 10's and has not yet to finish outside fo 18th.

Top 5 Current Track Type History(Short Track)

With the first short track of the season, I decided to take a look back at average DraftKings scoring over the six short track races in 2017. No surprise who is on top as Kyle Busch won at Bristol and Martinsville and finished with four Top 10's in six races with 653 laps led. He also won once(Martinsville) in 2016 with four more Top 10's and has led a total of 1,342 laps over the last two years(12 races). Brad Keselowski won just once(Martinsville Spring) last season on short tracks but had three Top 5's and led 343 laps giving him an average of 71.6 DraftKings points per race. Martin Truex Jr. is still seeking his first short track win in 72 career races but he was a very productive fantasy asset in 2017 with three Top 10's and led 356 laps. Jimmie Johnson picked up his 14th career win on a short track last season(Bristol Spring) and was one of the most consistent drivers across all six races with no finish worse than 15th(9.7 average finish) and with 105 laps led, finished fourth in average DraftKings points per race. Joey Logano rounds out the Top 5 in average DraftKings points per race from 2017(54.2) and he also hodls the ebst average finsih(8.9) over the last two years(12 races) on short tracks. He has just one win in that time but has finished Top 10 in nine of those 12 races and led 241 laps.

Top 5 Current Form (Five Races)

 

For the second time this season, Kevin Harvick recorded negative DraftKings points but still sit atop the form list when looking at fantasy scoring with three wins and 433 laps led. Closing in is Martin Truex Jr. who picked up his first win of the season last week and now has finished Top 5 in four of the first five races and sits third in laps led with 139. Kyle Busch comes in third and has been extremely consistent since finishing 25th at the Daytona 500 with four straight Top 10 finishes and three straight Top 3 finishes. He is also second to Harvick through five races in lap led with 209. Despite only leading 82 laps through five races, Denny Hamlin has been another very consistent driver. He has three Top 5's, four Top 10's and the second-best average finish(6.8) among all drivers. The surprise of the season continues to be Aric Almirola who is the only driver in the series to finish every race inside the Top 13. Not only has he impressed with the average finish but he has also gained double-digit place differential in four of the five races for a total of 73 place differential points. The price is going up fast but it's hard to argue with that kind of consistency.

Pre Qualifying/Practice Targets

Kyle Busch($11,000)

His salary took a big leap this week(+$700) but for good reason as he has finished Top 5 in five straight races here at Martinsville including two wins with 813 laps led for an average of 135.1 DraftKings points per race. He also led all drivers in the series last year with an average of 85.1 DraftKings points per race on all short tracks combined. To top it all off, he also comes in hot having finished 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd in the last three races and is on the cusp of grabbing win #1 on the season.

Jimmie Johnson($9,100)

He picked up his first Top 10 of the season last week in Fontana and now returns to a track that he has dominated throughout his career with nine wins, leading all active drivers. Even recently he has been terrific here with a win in 2016 to go along with the third-highest average DraftKings points per race(59.1). The price only went up $100 from last week so jump on board while you can because as soon as the #48 catches fire he will once again be in the high $9K/low $10K range.

Austin Dillon($7,700)

Down in the value range, I will be paying close attention to the #3 car this week as Austin Dillon has been very consistent here at Martinsville lately. He has finished 18th or better in seven of his eight races here in a Cup car and Top 5 in each of the last two Spring races.

Landon Cassill($4,500)

Cassill will make his first Cup Series start of the season this week as he takes over the #00 car for Starcom Racing who parted ways with Jeffrey Earnhardt this week. He is the lowest priced driver this week and makes a nice punt play should he qualifying outside the Top 30. Looking at his track history here at Martinsville, he has finished Top 30 in nine straight and 11 of his last 12 races here with five Top 25 finishes.

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.