Anthony Davis is either doing this, or in the locker room. Here's to him doing this tonight.
We've got a tiny Sunday slate, with an irrelevant 1pm game and then just 3 games later on. The end of the season is so crazy, though, that we just might be able to turn up some value anyway. Let's dive right in!
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Today's article has to look a little different by necessity since there are so few teams to choose from. For some positions there is just so little clarity as to what we can do at this point that I think it's more prudent to give you an overview of what's going on. Let's get started.
Factor 1: the Boston situation
Kyrie has traveled with the team, but his status as of this writing is uncertain. If he plays it completely kills Terry Rozier's value, and Kyrie himself can't be relied upon to play significant minutes. I like Rozier if Kyrie is out, though.
Factor 2: Do you trust CP3's minutes on a back to back?
Because I sure don't. This game is only an hour after lock, so we may have definitive news here, but man I can't imagine trusting him unless we get explicit word that A) he's playing and B) doesn't have a minutes restriction. It seems as though Houston is really making a run for the #1 seed though, which is a mark in his favor.
Can you play any of the 3 Clippers guys?
Three of them qualify at the position, but none inspires a ton of confidence. Thornwell has been getting the minutes and generally sucking. Teodosic saw a little bump in minutes last game, but is coming off the bench. Austin Rivers, though? He'll likely be chalk in spite of a bad match-up. He's just one of the only reliable guys at the position.
I'd rather not play Jeff Teague at his price given his inconsistent minutes, which leaves us with Rajon Rondo (totally playable, but risky) and Damian Lillard (likely overpriced). Enjoy!
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.5 DK - 37.23
Okay, we have at least 1 clear recommendation here. Lou-Will went back up to 38 minutes against OKC, and while the performance wasn't there it looked like it was mostly a continuation of his bad shooting streak. I know people like to read into these sorts of runs, but I am trusting Williams' shooting track record over the recent small sample size. I am going to stick with my guns and say it's going to turn, and a league average match-up with Portland isn't enough to scare me off this one.
An unexciting potpourri:
Wiggins and McCollum both qualify as "super-meh" at their current price points. Just a sea of sub 5x points per dollar performances, and not particularly good match-ups today. Do you want to pay up for Harden against a Timberwolves team that has allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, in spite of their defensive woes? And on a day sort of lacking in good punts? I sure don't.
And... we're out of options unless you want to gamble on Eric Gordon off the bench. Again, enjoy!
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 20.27 DK - 20.68
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 28.79
I don't mind grabbing both sides of this one, but both of these plays have their pros and cons. Moore looks to be in line of a lot of minutes for the Pelicans right now, but he can also spend a lot of time on the court without doing a whole lot. It's also not an incredible match-up with Boston. Still, on such a short slate, it's hard to imagine he'll be left off of cash game lineups at such a low price point. As for Tatum, he's more of an enigma to me. On one hand you've got a solid match-up with a Pelicans team that plays both fast and badly, but on the other hand, Tatum's minutes have been somewhat unreliable even as the rest of his counterparts have been banged up. He needed every bit of the 46 minutes he played against the Wizards to return value, and followed that up with just 30 minutes against Orlando. It might be tough to avoid him on such a small slate, regardless.
Also considered: Nemanja Bjelica. He's been excellent on these prices in the last three games, but was only paying these prices intermittently when Butler first went down. He sure seems to have the trust of the team, and the minutes give him a plenty high floor even in a slightly below league average match-up with the Rockets.
Here's another doozy of a position. Walk with me down power forward lane.
Minnesota: Taj is totally cash game viable at these prices, if only because of the relatively solid floor he gives you.
Boston: Marcus Morris is at near season high prices, but at least he's got the match-up going for him. The Pelicans have been a top 5 match-up for opposing power forwards all season, and he could see high ownership here.
Los Angeles Clippers: Tobias Harris? You're paying up, but he's been paying 5x points per dollar on these prices. It's a fine match-up with Portland.
New Orleans: You want Anthony Davis on the 2nd half of a back to back at near season high prices in a bad and slow match-up with Boston? The crazy thing is, you might. You've also got Mirotic here, but I don't think he's playable given the price and track record in a tough spot.
Portland: The performance AND minutes come and go for Aminu. I can't get excited about him, but at least he's kinda cheap?
Houston: No on Mbah a Moute unless it's strictly a price thing. Even then.
So where do we land? I think you play it by ear in terms of the money you have available. I'd guess Marcus Morris will have the highest ownership of this group, and likely for good reason. The only guys I would be scared to play are Aminu and Mbah a Moute.
Another rough position. Let's break down the playable options in the order I like them.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 32.66 DK - 33.03
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 44.45 DK - 44.51
Two guys that would be easy plays, but ONLY if you can trust the minutes. Horford was playing 31-34 minute rotations, but the injury has me wondering if Boston wants to save his minutes for when they count just a little bit more. The Pelicans are a much better match-up for opposing centers with Boogie off the court, and I think you could easily see 5x points per dollar there. For Capela it's simply a question of what his real rotation is. I have to think Houston will need his maximum effort against Towns, so I'm penciling him in for 33-35 minutes. If he gets that, value should be an afterthought. He's still at a lot of risk for foul trouble here, though, so don't auto-lock him without understanding the risk you're taking on.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.88 DK - 39.38
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 46.58 DK - 48.03
Two pretty uninspiring payoffs in my opinion. Towns just hasn't averaged the production you'd like to see on these prices all season, and Capela is no slouch on D. He's had a better run of it lately, but you're also paying for the recent performance. I'd rather not. Same story for DeAndre. If you squint you can pick out games where he goes off on the boards and consequently gets a bunch of put-backs, but it's far from the norm. He could absolutely abuse Portland's weak defensive front court, but I'm not counting on it for cash games.
We having fun yet? See you around line-up lock leading up to 6pm!
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