James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
It's St Patrick's Day, Saturday in the NBA. We've got ten games on the agenda for this evening tipping off at 7ET with the Rockets traveling into New Orleans for a game with the Pelicans in a game with a 227 O/U. The night caps off with the Warriors who are looking for a little good luck to come their way as they head into Phoenix for a tilt with the Suns. There's a lot to consider when determining our top plays, so let's check out our system's top picks!!
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Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 41.95 DK - 42.4
Chris Paul made a brief appearance on the injury report prior to the Rockets game against the Clippers on Thursday night, and despite sitting out practice on Wednesday it would appear the knee was still bothering him some come game time as he was basically a nonfactor in Houston's win. He's now had Friday to rest and hasn't reappeared on the injury list. He should be fine to go tonight as the Rockets head into the bayou to take on the Pelicans as they continue to fight to keep a grip on the top seed in the west. Removing Thursday night from the equation CP3 has been what we've come to expect over his last several outings: 30-35 minutes a game with double-digit scoring, plenty of assists, and his fair share of boards making him an all-around threat and a daily fantasy asset. Put all of that into a game against a team with a top three pace factor and the eighth most FP allowed to point guards this season and we have a solid outing for a high floor, high ceiling player. If you trust the knee isn't going to be an issue then Paul is a top way to pay up at the point.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.24 DK - 25.66
The Cavs head into the windy city tonight for a tilt with the Bulls. Chicago is far from a shutdown defense on the perimeter with Kris Dunn at the point, and he's already been ruled out meaning it will likely be Cameron Payne drawing the start against Hill. Hill needed every last second of 35 minutes on the court Thursday night in Portland to pay value, but given he spent much of the night contending with Damian Lillard that's to be expected. Hill doesn't do a ton of scoring, but he does contribute across the board and fill the stat sheet nicely. Even if he returns to his normal 25-30 minute allotment tonight he should be able to make enough happen to get himself to the 20-25 FP we need for cash purposes, and I'm certainly not dismissing the upside he could potentially carry into this one either. George is a fine value play in all formats.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.05 DK - 33.42
The Mavericks are in Brooklyn tonight for a game with the Nets. Dennis Smith Jr. not only sees a favorable matchup with a team that plays the seventh-fastest game in the Association but also the most generous DvP against point guards in the game. Smith was held out a week ago with a quad injury and since then has struggled to pay value in three starts. His shooting has gotten progressively better, as he ended last night's game in Toronto with 19 points to go along with four boards, and assists each so this game is coming at the right time as Smith looks to get back on track. Despite being capable of going out and putting up a total dud from time to time, DSJ has proven himself to have a solid 25-30 FP floor with 40 FP upside. Given the matchup, I'll ride this play in tournaments and look to Smith Jr. to dominate the Nets backcourt in a pace up contest that should go to the final buzzer.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 55.9 DK - 57.7
Back to the Rockets game in New Orleans we go for what is arguably the best way to pay up on tonight's slate. LeBron James leads the raw points projections in our NBA lineup optimizer tonight, but James Harden is projected to pay similar points per dollar at a significantly discounted rate, and on a night like tonight when we don't have a ton of solid punts to consider locking James could be a risky proposition. So we look to the beard, James Harden has been come into March like a lamb, falling short of 50FP in three straight starts, but he still leads the NBA in points per game and three-pointers made per game, while coming in third in assists per game, and his MVP caliber play is a huge part of why the Rockets maintain their two-game lead over the Warriors as we approach the final month of the season. In the right matchup Harden still remains a threat to let loose and put up monster numbers, and with Houston sporting an implied total of 117 in this one, tonight could very well be the night that happens. The Pelicans DvP against shooting guards is third worst in the NBA. This game has the highest implied total of the slate at 227, and an equally impressive 100.7 combined pace factor, meaning all the pieces are in place for a big night for the beard. I'll likely have Harden everywhere tonight.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.77 DK - 30.14
Klay Thompson remains out, which means more Swaggy P. Nick Young has drawn two starts at the two for Golden State while Klay remains sidelined with a thumb injury that will keep him out for at least another week. His first start against the Lakers couldn't have gone much better as he dropped 18 points, grabbing three rebounds and dishing out two assists in 31 minutes. This recent sting from the injury bug is hitting the Dubs at a time when they are at least coming across some really weak defensive matchups. Tonight they draw the best of the bunch in the form of the Phoenix Suns. As if the Phoenix defensive game isn't bad enough, they may be without Devin Booker. Phoenix has been the worst team defending against opposing two-guards this season, allowing 20% more FP than average to the position. The sites are quickly correcting on Young's price with his newfound starting opportunity, but given he the fact that he sees his usage jump 10.4% with Curry, Thompson, and KD off the court, Swaggy's a top value play tonight and helps to offset the top dollar Harden price tag. I can't see going anywhere at the two tonight outside of these two plays.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 24.69 DK - 24.8
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 19.45 DK - 18.84
Finding a healthy Warrior is harder than finding Waldo these days. Steph and Klay remain out. Kevin Durant, who was ruled out last night underwent an MRI and will likely miss two weeks. Last night against the Kings, Omri Casspi rolled his ankle in the second quarter and was forced to leave the game. Casspi walked off on his own, but was ruled out for the remainder of the game. Depending on the severity of the injury, Andre Iguodala could be in line for big minutes starting at the three tonight against the Suns. Casspi was seeing substantial playing time for the depeleted Warriors, and was a tremendous value tonight against a weak Phoenix defense. This play will come down to the news on Casspi's ankle. If he is able to play tonight play him everywhere, otherwise Iggy is the play against a Suns defense allowing 45% more FP over their last five games than league average.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 33.07 DK - 33.45
If you trust the minutes, Micheal Beasley is an excellent way to go at the three. In his last two games, Beasley has seen 32 and 33 minutes scoring an average of 22.5 PPG. He was electric against the Sixers on Thursday night, double-doubling with 24 points and 13 boards. He rounded the night out with seven assists, a block, and a steal, and we saw Michael Beasley's ceiling. A nearly 9X PPD outing against a team ranked average defending against the position. Tonight the Hornets come to the Big Apple and they are well below average, 21st overall at the position. Beasley isn't going to put up 50FP every night, but if the minutes remain in the thirties, 30-40 is well within reason and make Beasley a fantastic option in all formats.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.41 DK - 32.78
We've discussed Devin Booker and his hand, even if he does play TJ Warren is a strong option at the three but becomes a fantastic option if Booker is ruled out. Warren sees his usage spike 3% with Booker off the court. Warren led the Phoenix offense against the Jazz on Thursday, even with Booker in the game though clearly hurting. His 19 points were a team high and he paired them with six boards, a block, and a steal. Utah is a top defense at the position, and though the Dubs are ranked second overall against small forwards, DvP really isn't a consideration given the number of Warriors starters riding the pine tonight. I like Warren even if he's sharing the court with Booker. I love him if Booker is eventually ruled out.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.71 DK - 26.95
We've got an embarrassment of riches at the four tonight, it's one of the deeper positions on the slate, which is odd, given it's traditionally a wasteland of questionable plays. While most of the options are on the pricier side, we'll start out with Jeff Green against the Bulls. Green started his third straight game on Thursday in Portland, while Larry Nance nursed his hamstring, and the way Green has been playing, you can understand if they Cavs opt to rest Nance, who currently sits as a GTD, again tonight on the side of caution. Through his three starts, Green has seen his minutes creep from 22, to 27, to 33 while posting an average of 24.9 FPPG. Provided he continues to draw the start Green is a terrific value play sitting below $5K on both sites and he should have little trouble getting us at least 25-30 FP against a Bulls defense surrendering over 40 FP on average this season.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 44.82 DK - 46.12
After Jeff Green we have three top range price plays to consider at the position. We'll begin with Draymond Green. As it stands, Dray is the only starter of the Golden State squad left standing aside from Zaza. Curry, Thompson, Durant, all sit on the shelf now and the Warriors are struggling to catch up to the Rockets who hold the top spot in the west. Dray was electric in the Warriors loss to the Kings last night scoring 20 points with 10 boards and seven assists for 6.5X PPD. Surrounded by a bunch of role players, the Dubs are going to rely heavily on Draymond to keep them in the hunt for the top seed until they can get back to health which means he should see plenty of opportunities tonight in a game with a combined 102.7 pace factor. Given the situation, Draymond is a top option everywhere, but especially stands out on FanDuel where he is not only $1K cheaper than on DraftKings, but he also stands as the cheapest of the trio we're about to look at here at the position.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.6 DK - 41.91
Next up we have Blake Griffin and the Pistons in Portland. After being completely locked down by the Jazz two nights earlier, Griffin opened up on the Nuggets defense on Wednesday night dropping 26 points (including a season-high 5 threes), six boards, nine assists, and a steal. It was the fifth time in the last six games the Blake was over 40 FP, something that only happened three times in his first 13 games since coming over from the Clippers. Blake is finally starting to look cash game viable while remaining a top tournament option. While the Blazers may have Lillard and McCollum on the perimeter, their interior is easily exploitable as they're ranked average defending against opposing PF's. This game sits on the lower side of the Vegas projections, at 209, with a slightly concerning nine-point spread, but if Griffin is going to continue to see minutes in the mid to upper thirties, and play at the level he's currently playing at, then he's a strong cash play across the industry.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 43.08 DK - 42.89
We'll close out the position with LMA. LaMarcus Aldridge is the priciest of the Dray, Blake, LMA trio on FanDuel by a mile, but the cheapest on DraftKings. So, of course, we will lean more towards considering him as a DK play. The Spurs are clinging ever so tightly on to that eighth spot in the west, and LaMarcus Aldridge has been a key factor in getting them there. He's scored 24 points or better in three of his last four starts, dating back to a 30 point 17 rebound gem against the Warriors. In 37 minutes against the Pelicans on Wednesday, he went 25/7/3/1/0. While the Wolves have been an average defense against opposing power forwards this season, over their last five games, they've surrendered 14% more FP than average to the position. I won't spend that much on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, LMA is definitely worthy of consideration given the savings.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 42.46 DK - 42.72
Two plays stand out at the five. Both of them will be tough to fit into our lineups with the plays we've looked at elsewhere but neither is completely out of the question. First up, Clint Capella. We've already looked at this matchup between the Rockets and Pelicans from all angles, so there's not much more I can tell you about it. New Orleans is actually not bad defending against the five, which is fairly obvious given they've got Anthony Davis, and for most of the season had Boogie Cousins to hold opposing big men in check. That said, Capela is reasonably priced and presents a mid-tiered option to gain exposure to the game with the highest O/U of the night. Capela's coming off of a solid outing against the Clippers where he notched his second double-double in the last four games and ended the night paying 7X PPD in 35 minutes. Despite the matchup, Capela is a strong play in all formats and is especially appealing on DraftKings where he's commanding nearly $1K less salary.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 47.3 DK - 47.64
Andre Drummond will cost you significantly more than Capela, but if you take a contrarian route to constructing your lineups, and opt for the value plays elsewhere, he could pay off in a more appealing matchup against a Trailblazers frontcourt allowing the twelfth most FP to opposing bigs in their last ten games. Like Griffin above, Drummond is coming off a big game against the Nuggets on Wednesday night, scoring 21 points while grabbing 17 boards in 33 minutes. It was the second time this month that Drummond surpassed the 50FP mark and tonight he goes against a Portland team ranked similarly defensively against the position. Drummond, like Capela, is priced significantly cheaper on DraftKings, though both are excellent plays across the industry. It will just be tougher to make Drummond fit but could be well worth it when all is said and done.
Thanks for reading, as always good luck out there tonight. Post any questions or comments below. Cheers!!
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View Comments
Thanks for not posting the same repeated takes every other site has.
Good stuff guys
Thanks for reading and for the kind words guys. Good luck tonight
I always appreciate your input. I just dont bet enough to afford the software here. As always thanks!