Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Welcome to NBA Thursday! We're usually looking at just 3 or 4 games on these nights, but the NBA has blessed us with 9 tonight. There are a bunch of ways to pay up and it's important to find the right value spots. Do we go James Harden, LeBron James, or Anthony Davis? Let's dive in and take a look at the top plays at each position.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 46.74 DK - 48.78
Welcome to NBA Thursday! The NBA decided to switch things up this week and gave us a small slate on Wednesday and a huge one tonight. We haven't seen a Thursday slate this big in quite some time, but we're definitely not complaining. We'll open things up with one of the more exciting games of the slate. Portland and Lillard will host LBJ and the Cavs with a 222 over/under and just a five-point spread. We know Lillard prefers playing at home and he gets up for these big games. Cleveland ranks 25th against the PG position and haven't gotten any better with the addition of George Hill. Lillard has been downright phenomenal as of late, putting up 40+ fantasy points in seven of the last eight games and 50+ in four of them. He's still below $10k on both sites and can be played in every format.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35.34 DK - 36.79
If you're needing 35+ fantasy points and can't afford the pricey Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry is a phenomenal pivot. He's in the mid-$7k's on both sites and is always one of the safest plays on the entire slate. He'll see both Cory Joseph and Darren Collison on defense and neither are all that scary. They've been a lot worse over the last 20 games against PG's than on the season and it probably has to do with the uptick in minutes for Joseph. Lowry is a bulldog and a lot stronger than both of those guys. He's going to put up 35 fantasy points with ease and can get to 50 if the game stays close. Lowry will never kill you in cash games.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 17.25 DK - 16.39
Payne isn't necessarily seeing big minutes, but he's been over 20 fantasy points in three straight and has a sneaky good match-up. While the Grizzlies are typically a shutdown defense, it's not the case when half the team is out. Over the last 10 games, the Grizzlies rank 23rd against the PG position. Rathan-Mayes and Kobi Simmons are extremely bad defenders and Payne is a lot faster than both. He'll see 20 minutes again and at the minimum price, it'll be tough for him to miss value. It's had to trust these minutes in a cash game, but I do think you can. He's definitely in play in tournaments as he can put up 30+ if given the opportunity.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 57.59 DK - 59.29
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.37 DK - 26.94
We'll kick off shooting guard with James Harden and Eric Gordon, who are both viable in either format tonight. Let's look at Harden first. With three main superstars on this slate (LBJ, AD, Harden), Harden gives you a discount of over $1k from the others. I don't think that's fair, either. He's just as good as either of them in tonight's spot and can put up 60 here with ease if the game stays close. With Lou Williams manning the 2 for the most part, the Clippers rank 27th against the SG position. That's where we also get to Eric Gordon, who's a bit too cheap for his role in this offense. He's fine taking 15 shots in a game and at least 5-7 of them will be 3's. The only real problem we get to is the 11.5 point spread, but it's not all that high for a Houston squad that seems to never lose.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 39.02 DK - 40.62
If we're playing James Harden, we're hoping these Clippers can keep it close. The easiest way to do that is Lou Williams. Even at his age, Lou Williams is playing a consistent 34+ minutes and producing on a nightly basis. It's even more incredible when you consider how reliant he is on his jumper. It just never fails. Tonight, he gets a phenomenal match-up against James Harden and Eric Gordon, two of the worst defenders at the position. We may end up seeing Chris Paul move over at some point, but that would create a mismatch elsewhere and would only happen if Lou Will got out of hand. At that point, we're well past happy in cash games and tournaments. If this game stays close, we know Lou is going to put up 40 fantasy points. It's the highest total on the board and he's the only real scorer I trust outside of Tobias. Williams is an elite play in all formats.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 58.39 DK - 59.16
There are three ways to pay way up tonight. We already touched on James Harden against the Clippers and we'll now get to LeBron. He's playing the best basketball of his season? Career? I don't know how he's doing it, but this just as good of a LeBron as we have ever seen. He got up over 70 fantasy points against the Suns last time out and has been over 50 in every single game. Now with that being said, he's now $12.5k, so you HAVE to get at least 55-60 points in cash games. If this game with a 222 total and 4 point spread ends up staying close, he will be in there for 35+ minutes and hit that 55 point mark. They did, fortunately, blowout the Suns last game, so LeBron is definitely well-rested. I'm going to do my best to get him into my cash games and tournaments, but I don't think he's a must at the insane price. If you make me choose between LeBron and Harden, I go Harden by a nose.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 20.56 DK - 19.98
MKG has picked up 24 and 29 minutes over the last two games and is virtually minimum-price, meaning you need about 15-20 in cash games. Against a Hawks team that ranks 29th against SF's, that shouldn't be all that hard. We know Kidd-Gilchrist isn't the most exciting offensive player, but he can contribute across the board in a way that should give him a high floor here. The Hawks are a lifeless team overall and definitely struggle with rebounding (24th). Nobody is ever going to get excited about rostering MKG, but you need to pay down at a few spots tonight and Kidd-Gilchrist is a great way to do it. I'll take LeBron and MKG over any two $7k players.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.73 DK - 43.18
Blake Griffin was struggling for a minute there, but has finally cemented his role in this offense and he's been over 40 fantasy points in four of the last five games. His price is still not back to where it was and at $8k, and 40 points make you plenty happy in cash games. The Nuggets aren't a great defense overall, and while Paul Millsap is returning, he's not fully healthy and has ranked 23rd on the season vs PF's. You're also looking at a 216 total, which is very high for a Pistons squad. The Nuggets don't play much defense and Griffin is now the number one scoring option on this team. Power forward is a lot better tonight than it is on most nights, but it's still not great.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 22.94 DK - 23.28
Let's get to a couple cheaper guys from this Cleveland @ Portland game. Aminu has been over 25 minutes in three of the last 4 and grabbed 30+ in 2 of them. He isn't the most effective scorer when on the floor, but has averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute on the year. It's hard to look at DVP with the Cavs ever-changing interior, but they have ranked 22nd against them over the last month. Aminu is a rock-solid cash game option and certainly won't be a guy that ends up killing your hopes.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 22.99 DK - 23.13
This play is somewhat dependent on Rodney Hood or Larry Nance Jr. missing, but it's one you should be aware of nonetheless. He had a great game against the Suns last time out and finally started hitting some shots like we're used to. He now draws a match-up with a Blazers squad that struggles on the perimeter vs the 4. We've only looked at LeBron so far on this Cavs side, but there are some other guys to look at. Don't be scared to stack this game if you think it stays competitive throughout. As for Green, he's far too cheap on FanDuel and will be locked into every lineup if either of these guys is out.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 48.76 DK - 49.13
Andre Drummond hasn't been insane over the last few games, but he's still the same guy as ever and just ran into a few bad game scripts. Don't look at him any differently than the guy who was putting up 50 with ease. First things first, that price on DraftKings at $8.3k is crazy. He's too cheap over there and a guy I'll be locking into every cash game. This match-up with Denver is average, considering they rank 17th against the position. I just think he fits it a lot better than the numbers may say. N A 20/20 game is always possible for Drummond and Jokic isn't a guy that will stand in the way. He saw poor minutes last game, but can be counted on for 30+ if the game stays close. Vegas thinks it does and I'm not one to disagree. He's the top Center on the board and a virtual lock for me on DK. Let's pay down a bit.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 40.65 DK - 42.15
Howard is always in play when he's playing like this. They've been looking to him for a lot of offense as of late and it's paid off in a big way. He put 44+ in three of the last four and almost got to 60. Whether Andre Drummond is too expensive or just not your taste, Dwight Howard is a great pivot. He's also returning to Atlanta for one of the first times and you have to think there is at least a little incentive. Any reason for Dwight Howard to actually try is definitely a plus. He's safe in all formats and not a guy I'm worried about being the reason I lose. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below if you have any questions or thoughts! Thanks!
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