Kyle Larson races during the NASCAR Cup Series auto race in Brooklyn, Mich., Sunday, Aug. 13, 2017. Larson won the race. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
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Auto Club Speedway - Fontana, California
Track - Two-Mile Intermediate
It wasn't the same kind of dominance but Kevin Harvick still ended up in Victory lane last week in Phoenix. With that third win a row, he joined some elite company becoming just the 15th driver in NASCAR history to win three straight races. Names on this list include Bobby Allison(2), David Pearson(2), Richard Petty(2), Cale Yarborough, Harry Gant, Daryl Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt(twice in one season), Rusty Wallace(3), Bill Elliott, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson(2), Jeff Gordon(3), Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano. He will now try to become a part of an even more elite group and become just the eighth in history to win four in a row as the Monster Energy Cup Series travels to Fontana, California and Auto Club Speedway for the Auto Club 400 this Sunday.
For the third straight week, we have a different track as Auto Club Speedway is a two-mile D Shaped Oval. Like Phoenix, it is flat(14°) but double the length and it is a much wider track with multiple lanes that a driver can run. From a fantasy perspective, we can rely on a more balanced approach of dominator and place differential points than we did at Phoenix or the mile and a half tracks at Las Vegas or Atlanta. Only twice in the last six races have there been more than one driver to lead more than 50 laps. Last year was one of those years as Kyle Larson won from the pole and led 110 laps but on the other side, there have been six or more drivers to gain double-digit place differential in each of the last six races. As alsways, however, qualifying and practice will dictate just how much we can rely on place differential for value.
Now let's take a look at some race trends and then dive into some pre-qualifying/practice targets.
Kevin Harvick tops the average DK scoring here at Auto Club Speedway over the last two years thanks to his near dominant performance back in 2016 where he started second, led 142 laps but couldn't shake Jimmie Johnson in the closing laps in overtime and finished runner-up. Joey Logano has been very consistent here over the last two years with back to back Top 5 finishes and is second in average DK points thanks to some elite place differential upside last year starting 35th. Jimmie Johnson has picked up double-digit place differential in back to back years here at Fontana and combined with his win, sits third in average DraftKings scoring over the last two years. He will be one to watch if he should continue to struggle in qualifying(average of 22nd starting spot through four races). Clint Bowyer, like Jimmie, has also finished each of the last two races with double-digit place differential as he started 17th last year and finished 3rd and with HScott Motorsports in 2016, he started 29th and finished 18th. Rounding out the Top 5 in average DK scoring over the last two years here is Chase Elliott who has finished Top 10 in both races here in his career picking up positive place differential in both.
Over the last six races, Kyle Busch leads the average DraftKings scoring ranks with an average of 57.8 points per race thanks to back to back wins in 2013 and 2014 and 217 laps led in the five races(missed 2015 due to injury). He has three career wins here at Fontana and has 13 Top 10's in 19 races. Leading all drivers in career wins is Jimmie Johnson with six and has an incredible 13 Top 5's and 16 Top 10's in 23 races. He is also second in DraftKings scoring over the last six races with a win, three Top 10's, 131 laps led, and a +32 place differential. I talked about Elliott above who has only raced here twice and while Kevin Harvick has just one win here in his career, he has been money for fantasy over his last six with three Top 5's and 177 laps led, good for the fourth-best average DraftKings points per race. The last two years haven't been too kind to Kurt Busch in Fontana as he finished 24th and 30th but he still sits Top 5 in average DraftKings scoring over the last six years with four straight Top 10's before that with a +31 place differential.
Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson absolutely dominated the two-mile tracks in 2017. Truex finished 4th here at Fontana and 6th and 2nd at Michigan with 225 laps led. Larson did one(two and three) better as he won all three races on the two-mile tracks in 2017 leading 208 laps and looking even further back, has won four straight races on the two-mile tracks. Kyle Busch wasn't as dominant as those other two drivers with just 61 laps led last year on the two-mile tracks but he did finish Top 10 on all three which was good for 48.8 DK points per race. As you can tell by his 18.2 average finish he has been very inconsistent on these tracks over the last two years and throughout his career. When looking at the average finish on the two-mile tracks over the last two years, Chase Elliott sits right at the top with a 5.0 average finish. He has made six starts on these tracks in his young career and finished Top 10 in every single one with three runner-ups at Michigan. Trevor Bayne has just one Top 10 finish on a two-mile track in his last seven races but shows up on the average DK points per race list as he picked up 39 place differential points last season. This emphasizes the importance of qualifying, especially for the value plays.
Can anyone stop this run by the #4 team and Kevin Harvick? He has won three straight races, led 433 laps, and has averaged almost 30 more DK points per race than any other driver. Kyle Busch has been the best of the rest so far with three straight Top 10's and back to back runner-ups to Harvick. He was the #1 dominator last week as well leading 128 laps in the middle of the race. Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin join Harvick as the only three drivers to pick up three Top 5 finishes through the first four races. Maybe the most impressive on this list is Aric Almirola who has taken over the #10 car for Stewart-Haas Racing. He has back to back Top 10 finishes, almost won the Daytona 500, and has yet to finish outside of 13th in any race.
Kevin Harvick($11,500)
It would be pretty crazy to fade the #4 team right now with the role they are on winning three straight races. Harvick has only won here once in his career and while he finished outside of the Top 10 last year(13th) it was the first year in a Ford and he had finished runner-up in 2015 and 2016 leading a total of 176 laps in those two races. I fully expected to see his salary go over $12K so the fact that it only went up $100 makes him a top target in all formats.
Kyle Larson($10,000)
He dominated the race last year leading 110 laps and he is the two-mile King at the moment as he has taken four straight races on them overall(three on Michigan). Larson has also led the way for the Chevy team who is struggling early in the 2018 season with the new body. He and Chase Elliott are the only two Chevy's with multiple Top 10's so far. Considering he is the fifth most expensive driver this week, I will be targeting him in all formats, at least until we see qualifying and practice.
Clint Bowyer($8,000)
The Stewart-Haas Racing team is one to be reckoned with right now and Clint Bowyer is having a terrific start to the season himself. He has one Top 5 and two Top 10's and is averaging 40.8 DK points per race and while he has been up and down here at Auto Club Speedway in his career, is coming off a terrific 3rd place finish last season.
A.J. Allmendinger($6,000)
Other than a Top 10 at the Daytona 500, it has been a slow start to the season for the Dinger but he comes back to a track where he has had some success in the past. He has a Top 10 finish in two of his last four races here at Auto Club Speedway and has finished inside the Top 20 in seven of his last eight races here. Providing he qualifyies outside the Top 20, he makes a top value target this week at a $6K price tag.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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With 13 cars failing pre-qualifying tech, NASCAR has adjusted the rule allowing all teams to start on new tires.