Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 61.2 DK - 64.65
Welcome to NBA Thursday! We kick things off in Oklahoma City, where the Suns and Thunder face-off in a game with a 228 total and 10 point spread. It's easily the highest total on the slate and we'll be targeting this game quite a lot. To no surprise, things get going with Russell Westbrook at the PG position. He just put up 72 fantasy points against the Suns a week ago and is playing his best basketball. The Suns play faster than anyone in basketball and rank bottom 10 against every position. Against PG's, they sit at 27th on the season and 28th since the ASB. Elfrid isn't necessarily a bad defender, but this team has no motivation to play defense, instead pushing the offense and getting the ball to the scorers as quickly as possible. Westbrook is the only true superstar on this slate with Karl-Anthony Towns the 2nd most expensive at just over $10k. He'll likely be popular because of it, but that's fine. This is one of the 3 best possible match-ups for Westbrook and I'll do my best to have him in every single lineup. There's no opportunity cost in the price range.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 43.32 DK - 44.69
Let's head to the mid-range. In doing so, we skipped Steph Curry. He doesn't have the best match-up on paper, but the game against the Spurs is at least interesting if it stays close. We'll instead look at Kemba Walker, who has a phenomenal match-up with the Brooklyn Nets. On the season they rank dead last in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing point guards. We love targeting Kemba at home and it's rare to see a 218 total in that arena. This is literally an ideal scenario for Walker. He's very well rested and I can't think of a situation I would rather he be in. Personally, I'll have him locked into all of my cash games and at least most tournaments. It's a branch I'm willing to die on tonight.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.68 DK - 25.79
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.51 DK - 34.67
Both of these guys saw extended minutes against the Wizards in an OT thriller. You can't count on 35+ again, but it's fair to expect 35 out of Dragic and 28-32 from Johnson, at the very least. This match-up against the Sixers is as solid as could be (25th) and Vegas likes this game quite a bit with a 209 total and tiny 1 point spread. Both of these guys produce when on the floor and you have to love the prices. For Johnson, he's coming back from injury and finally healthy. He only needs you to get you 20-25 fantasy points. Dragic has to find you 30, but that shouldn't be tough if it stays as close as Vegas thinks. Dragic is obviously the safer of the two, but the price reflects that and I couldn't blame you for playing either in any format. Personally, Westbrook and Kemba are in most of my lineups, with 25% on Dragic/Johnson as of now.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 41.34 DK - 43.53
We're right back to this PHO @ OKC game at SG and it shouldn't be a surprise. With a ludicrous 228 total and fair 10 point spread, Vegas thinks the game is high-scoring and close enough to the point where the starters will play a full complement of minutes. These 2 teams did play each other just 3 games ago, so it's hard to not at least look at that game. Booker put up 57 fantasy points in that game and single-handedly kept Pheonix in the game. He's just as good on the road and this Thunder squad is not very scary against SG's at this point. After the loss of Andre Roberson, they've ranked 21st against the position. With Elfrid at the 1 and Warren at the 3, we won't see either of the solid defenders have the benefit of moving over. Booker is still fairly priced on both sites and I really love him in both cash games and tournaments. He's one of the stars that I most definitely want on my cash game team.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.22 DK - 25.22
D-Wade isn't going to excite you with over 30 minutes, but we know what we're going to get now. He's locked into 24-28 minutes and is going to touch the ball on every possession. When on the floor, he's held a 30.6% usage rate, per NBAWowy. Wow. Before I checked that, I assumed it was in the 23-25% range. At 30% Wade is dominating the ball like a 2016 Russell Westbrook. The minutes are obviously small and he isn't all that good anymore, but it's obvious why we're seeing the consistent fantasy points. He has flashed some upside at 40 FP and faces off with a Sixers squad that ranks 24th against the position. Wade is an elite option in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 40.38 DK - 40.95
Paul George is playing average basketball and putting up a consistent 35-45 fantasy points a night. If he gets his shot going, we'll be looking at 50 with ease vs. the run-and-gun Suns. He has some of the safest minutes in all of the league and will very rarely see under 37 or 38. They just hold a tight rotation and don't have anyone to cover big minutes at the 3. He put up a solid 44 against the Suns a week ago and had a terrible game from the field. He made up for it with 14 combined peripherals, which is why this match-up is so easy to rely on. Worst-case scenario, the game gets out of hand and you settle for 40 out of George. Best-case, the game stays close and he gets hot. His price is extremely fair on both sites and I'll have a hard time excluding him from any cash game. Westbrook and George can both hit value together and I have no concern playing both on the same team.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 35.35 DK - 34.66
I'm usually not a big fan of targeting Paul George defense, but he hasn't been great this season. I'm not sure if it's the loss of Andre Roberson or just the wear and tear of the season, but the Thunder have been substantially worse against SF's over the last 10-20 games. On the season, they rank 6th against the position. Last 10? 21st. Last 20? 24th. Paul George is still a good defender and Warren won't see many easy shots, but we may see him move over to Devin Booker down the stretch and open things up for Warren against a smaller defender like Huestis. We're targeting this Thunder side a ton and it's not a bad idea to get exposure to Phoenix outside of Devin Booker. If it stays close, we're going to see 4 or 5 guys hit value with ease. I don't ever love T.J. Warren in cash games, but this is a weak SF position and he should hit value if Vegas is even close to right.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 20.91 DK - 20.91
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 25.59 DK - 24.47
We haven't touched on this game just yet, but it's one we should be paying attention to. In what could very well be a preview of the WCF, the Spurs and Warriors will face-off in Golden State. Popovich never gives these guys his real looks in the regular season, but they typically keep it close and have no problem running a bit with 'em. Tonight, I think both Kyle Anderson and Rudy Gay are in play. With Pau Gasol out, I think it's clear how this game turns out. Aldridge and Green at the 5 with Casspi or Durant at the 4. That allows the Spurs to go small as well and give these SF's big minutes. They both fit into this style a lot better than a Bertans or Lauvergne, so it only makes sense that the Pau Gasol minutes go here. Anderson is a little safer, but I'm fine with Gay in all formats if you truly think it does stay competitive. He is perfect for this game and could put up 35 fantasy points and nobody would blink. We'll touch on this game more, but just know it's one that can be stacked in tournaments and has plenty of cash game appeal at the same time.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 27.83 DK - 28.75
I'm sure you're very surprised by another Thunder starter. 'Melo was right here in the picks article a week ago against the Suns and ended up with 25 fantasy points in 31 minutes. He hasn't been any bit like the old Carmelo, but we have actual consistency and a concrete role. He's only $6k, so you're just fine with that 25-30 you see on most nights. If he gets hot from the field, you can easily see 40-50. The Suns rank dead last by a huge margin against the PF position at 47 FPPG allowed and it's no surprise with Bender and Chriss there. Carmelo is going to put up another 25 fantasy points and could very well go off. He's going to be popular and I suspect I'll be on that train when it departs. He's an interesting fade in tournaments, but you have to consider the weaker PF position. If you can afford to pay up, either of these next 2 guys make for a great option.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 41.12 DK - 40.91
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 38.42 DK - 38.12
If we're being honest, power forward is obviously one of the weaker positions on this slate. To me, I see a ton of traps. I suspect a lot of ownership will fall on guys like Olynyk, Johnson, Morris, and Gibson. All 4 of them are fine, but could very easily disappoint in their given match-ups. If you are forced to pay down, I like RHJ and Bender the most. However, I'll be doing my best to combo Carmelo Anthony with one of these guys. We touched on Gay and Anderson at SF, but like I said there, I don't mind targeting this game a ton if you think it stays close. This could turn into a nail-biter and I wouldn't be surprised to see the starters get extended minutes across the board. Ok, let's look at this match-up. With Pau Gasol out of the lineup, it's assumed these guys will end up matching up at the 5. Both are good defenders, but that really doesn't matter. For LaMarcus Aldridge, he's the only way the Spurs can stay in the game. He's going to get fed and will touch the ball on almost every possession. At just around $8k, he should have no problem getting to 40 fantasy points. For Green, he's too versatile for LMA. He will stretch the floor with ease and come through with his typical 15 combined peripherals. The Warriors look to Green in big games and this is certainly considered one. Depending on how your roster is built, I like these guys equally in both formats. Take your pick.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 41.92 DK - 43.08
We have a slate with both the Suns and Nets, so it's no surprise that we're all over 2 of these offenses. We only touched on Kemba Walker from Charlotte, but you can easily look at Batum, Lamb, Williams, and Kaminsky in at least tournaments. We're now at Dwight Howard, who has been playing exceptionally when on the floor. You definitely have to be worried about the recent dip in minutes, but he got up to 30 minutes last game against Philly and put up 45 fantasy points. He now sees a match-up against a Nets squad that ranks dead last against the Center position. By a decent margin. If you think the game stays close, he should get there without much issue. If you need to pay down, let's look at a guy with a ton of consistency.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.94 DK - 32.15
I guess we'll wrap things up with another OKC Thunder. Why not? The Suns play faster than any other team in the league and have no problem giving up value to everyone in the starting lineup. We're also not looking at a typical lineup. The Thunder run a very tight rotation and the starters often see close to 40 minutes. Adams typically grabs around 35, which would put him at a safe 35 FP projection. I'm sure you get the point by now, but this Suns defense is atrocious. They sit 26th against Centers, but 29th over the last 20. They just can't get worse as a team defense and we know Steven Adams isn't the guy to let things go easily. He's going to be all over the boards and have no problem grabbing 10-15 points under the rim from PnR's or putbacks. I like Dwight Howard a ton as well, but have no problem with Steven Adams if you're lacking Thunder exposure in the slightest. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below with any questions! Thanks!
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View Comments
Pricing is not accurate. Seriously guys?
Yeah a lot of these players Fan Duel prices are listed much lower than they really are. Curious if your projections change at all.
It was a data feed issue - we don't enter these manually of course. It'll be updated shortly.
NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
Losing big with Fanduel tool = all 25 lineups been horrible for the last week!