Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - TicketGuardian 500

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TicketGuardian 500

ISM Raceway - Avondale, Arizona
Track - One-Mile Intermediate

It was another dominating performance from the #4 of Kevin Harvick last week in Las Vegas. He led 214 laps on his way to back to back wins and with those two wins and three stage wins, he now has 13 playoff points. To put that in perspective, Austin Dillon is second in that category with five playoff points and no other driver has two. It was also another week of struggles for the Chevy camp as only one(Kyle Larson #42) finished Top 10, however, Ryan Newman turned out to be a great value play finishing 11th after starting 25th.

This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to ISM Raceway, formerly Phoenix Raceway. The track is currently under construction with a huge $178 Million dollar project underway, most notably adding grandstands around turn two where the drivers will notice the biggest change come fall. The start/finish line will be moved right in front of those new grandstands and the restart zone will be the first to be in a turn. It will definitely change the strategy for the playoff race here, adding to the many changes to this year's playoffs.

From a fantasy perspective, picking out those one or two dominator drivers will be key as there has been at least one driver to lead 100 or more laps in each of the last six races with one driver leading 190 or more in three of those six races including last fall's race.  The fast laps have been much more spread out as at least seven drivers have tallied double-digit fast laps in each of the last five races. Place differential will always be something to focus on but is much more dependant on qualifying. There have been four or five drivers to gain double-digit place differential in five of the last six races.

Let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race.

 

Last Six Winners at ISM Raceway(Phoenix)

• 2017 Fall - Matt Kenseth (started 7th, led 62 laps)
• 2017 Spring - Ryan Newman (started 22nd, led 6 laps)
• 2016 Fall - Joey Logano (started 4th, led 58 laps)
• 2016 Spring - Kevin Harvick (started 18th, led 139 laps)
• 2015 Fall - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (started 3rd, led 22 laps)
• 2015 Spring - Kevin Harvick (started 1st, led 224 laps)

Top 5 Current Track History at ISM Raceway(Phoenix)

Looking at consistent fantasy scorers, only one winner(Kevin Harvick) shows up in the Top 10 of DraftKings scoring over the past two years(four races). Alex Bowman leads the way as he raced here in November 2016, filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr, started on the pole and ended up leading 194 laps and finished sixth. Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are the only two drivers who have finished each of the last four races inside the Top 10 and three of the four races inside the Top 5. Chase Elliott has also been very consistent here at Phoenix with three Top 10's in his four races and no finish worse than 12th. He also led 140 laps here last year but the only thing that scares me this time around with Bowman and Elliott is the lack of success and speed out of the Chevy camp, specifically the Hendrick group.

Top 5 Career Track History at ISM Raceway(Phoenix)

There has been no driver who has dominated here at Phoenix quite like Kevin Harvick and that is trouble for the field as he is also the hottest driver in the series. He has eight career wins here and while he hasn't won since March 2016, he has now finished 6th or better in 11 of his last 12 races here including a stretch where he won six races in an eight-race span. Wow! Kyle Busch has just one career win here but he has been very consistent with 17 Top 10's in 25 races including five straight and seven of his last eight trips. He is also second to Harvick when looking at average DraftKings points per race over the last six races. I talked about Elliott above as he has just four career races and improved last year leading a ton of laps. Brad Keselowski is still searching for his first career win here at Phoenix and has just eight Top 10's in 17 races but ranks fourth overall when looking at average DraftKings scoring over the last six races, just ahead of Alex Bowman whose results are a bit skewed with that 2016 performance. Not on the above list is Ryan Newman who has been up and down here like most of the field but has two career wins including one last Spring where he came through the field from the 22nd starting position. He has also finished at third of the races here inside the Top 5 so there is most definitely upside. And we can't go through career track history numbers without mentioning Jimmie Johnson who has four career wins, 20 Top 10's in 29 races and an amazing 10.0 average finish. This could be the week he breaks through for his first Top 10 of the season and should be low owned.

Top 5 Current Track Type History(One-Mile Intermediate)

I won't be putting much weight, if any, on the track type performance this week as all three tracks(New Hampshire, Dover, Phoenix) in this category are very different. Phoenix as a tri-oval with 9°-11° of banking, New Hampshire is also flat with 12° of banking but is shaped like a larger version of Martinsville(paperclip), and Dover is an oval but has much more banking at 24°. It is more of a visual thing and looking at the 2017 numbers, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Larson dominated these tracks as all three had over 70 DraftKings points per race.

Top 5 Current Form (Three Races)

There is no surprise who is at the top this week when looking at form through three races. Kevin Harvick has now won two straight races while dominating with 395 laps led for and for the season is averaging 84.3 DraftKings points per race. Martin Truex Jr. is still looking for his first win in 2018 but rebounded nicely as well after a poor Daytona 500(18th) and has tallied Top 5's in two straight races. Ryan Blaney sits third in average DK points per race on the season thanks to those 118 laps led at Daytona and two Top 10 finishes. Justin Marks only raced once(Daytona 500) and proved to be a nice value with a +17 place differential. The Ford camp has been the strongest manufacturer early in the season and one of the most consistent drivers has been Team Penske driver, Joey Logano. He is the only driver in the series to finish all three races inside the Top 10 and has picked up positive place differential in each race good for an average of 49.4 DK points per race.

Pre Qualifying/Practice Targets

Kevin Harvick($11,400) & Kyle Busch($10,500)

Before seeing any practice or qualifying, these are my two targets for dominators points. Kyle finished seventh or better here in five straight races and Top 10 here in nine of his last 11 races leading 75 or more laps three times. Kevin Harvick is the hottest driver in NASCAR right now coming off back to back dominating wins and comes to a track where he has finished 6th or better in nine straight and 11 of his last 12 races including six wins and 1,167 laps led.

Aric Almirola($8,100)

It has been a very positive start to his time in the Stewart-Haas Racing #10 car. Almirola has finishes of 11th, 13th, and 10th and has +43 place differential points through three races and sits sixth in average DK points per race of those drivers to race every race this season. He is also coming off a Top 10 here last fall and has a Top 20 finish in 11 of his last 12 races at Phoenix.

Ty Dillon($6,400)

It has been a rough start to the season for Dillon and the #13 car who have finished 39th, 26th, and 24th through three races. They could definitely get things turned around this week at a track Ty has done very well at in his young career as he has finished 11th and 16th last season and 15th in 2016. The price is right to give it shot this week should he qualify outside of the Top 20.

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.