Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/4/18

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Point guard

Dennis Smith Jr. FD - $6200 DK - $6700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 32.35 DK - 33.36
Point guard offers a lot of decent options in a similar price range today, and frankly some of this is going to come down to a matter of preference. I'm likely going to be grabbing DSJ for a few reasons. The first, of course, is the match-up. The Pelicans have been the 5th worst teams against opposing point guards all season, and have been even worse than that with Rondo on the court. Smith's maximum effort style should lead to a terrible time for Rondo, and I think Smith will smell blood in the water here. And it's not like Smith is particularly expensive for his production. He's been paying 5x points per dollar in typical match-ups when he plays his minutes, and this match-up is certainly a few cuts better than typical. Love him as a play in any format.

Tomas Satoransky FD - $5700 DK - $5600
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.59 DK - 28.57
At first glance this one takes a little more squinting to look as appealing as the Smith Jr. play, but I think that's just a sample size issue. The fact of the matter is that Satoransky was routinely paying 6x+ on these prices until stumbling in a couple of brutal match-ups with Golden State and Toronto. He seems to be very securely playing 33-35 minutes per game in close match-ups, and given that Vegas has the Wiz favored by just 3.5 points, I think Tomas gets his full run here. Now some might look at the match-up and feel concerned on account of the Pacers' excellent overall defense-versus-position stats against point guards this season, but not me. Most of that was acquired with Collison running the point. In their last 10 games, the Pacers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per games to opposing PGs. Not concerned at all about playing Satoransky here.

Also considered: Rajon Rondo. You also need to keep an eye on the Wesley Matthews situation. If he's out and Barea gets a start we could see a monster game out of him.

Shooting Guard

D'Angelo Russell FD - $7500 DK - $7300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.25 DK - 39.73
Lou Williams FD - $8200 DK - $7700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.05 DK - 41.6
It's the game with the highest total on the slate but a healthy bit, and I like the shooting guards going both ways in it. Russell simply looks underpriced if he is going to play 32-38 minutes per game. He has the ball in his hands a ton, and is just the kind of shot creator the Nets need to keep things interesting. As for Williams, it's pretty clear that the Clippers hope to play him 33-37 minutes per game off the bench, and while we saw that it doesn't always work out that way against the Knicks, I think the upside is too great to pass up on. The Nets pair a top 6 PACE with a bottom 6 defensive efficiency, and I think Williams chews them up.

Also considered: Both Bradley Beal and Jrue Holiday. They are both sort of the same to me today - similar plays that I view as a slight cut below Lou-Will.

Small forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11000 DK - $10000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 53.98 DK - 54.41
As of now Giannis is the leader in the clubhouse in terms of big money plays, and I know that might have some people feeling a little concerned. The man who owns one of the most consistent game to game performances (per our own Doug Norrie's research) this season has been quite a bit less so recently, including an epic 13 point stinker against the Pistons. He bounced back reasonably against the Pacers, scoring 50 fantasy points in a remarkable 43 minutes. If there's a fly in the ointment with Giannis it just has to be the assist numbers. With a growing number of ball handlers earning playing time in Milwaukee (Jason Terry being the most recent addition) Giannis seems to have the ball in his hands less and less, and that's certainly a disquieting trend. The thing about today though is that we have precious little in the way of attractive big money payoffs. You're paying top dollar for Brow or Embiid when they are hit or miss on those prices, or you can get Giannis at a discount to recent prices. Not an easy call, but I don't mind the Greek here.

Robert Covington FD - $5300 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.92 DK - 24.61
And I also don't mind the man who rates to be covering him. We stuck our necks out and played Covington on Friday at just 5% ownership in cash, and it paid off handsomely. RoCo played 33 minutes against the Hornets and tallied 33 fantasy points, an excellent performance on these prices. The minutes trends are all looking positive on Covington, and it's hard to imagine that changes here given how much the 76ers will likely call on him to cover Antetokounmpo. Seems like a high floor option at a relatively dicey position.

Also considered: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I believe in the 30+ minutes, and he's awfully cheap for those kind of minutes. Just keep an eye on his status to ensure he will have similar opportunity today.

Power forward

Anthony Davis FD - $12300 DK - $11700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 61.21 DK - 61.3
If Giannis doesn't suit your fancy, I think a pretty strong case can be made for Davis here. I said this on Friday's podcast, and I stand by it now: I don't think anything fundamental has changed that makes me believe Davis will sustain 80+ fantasy points or whatever going forward. But he doesn't really need that kind of performance to be a good value on these prices. Dallas is kind of a funny match-up for him here. On one hand they're playing the 3rd slowest PACE in the league. On the other hand, their defensive efficiency is just a hair better than Brooklyn's. That doesn't tell the whole story of how they'll defend a singular talent like Davis, though. Dirk clearly can't hang here, which leaves the heavy lifting to Powell. I don't think he's up for the task, and I think Davis makes the most of the few possessions he will get to put up some big numbers here.

Markieff Morris FD - $5600 DK - $5400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 27.65 DK - 27.95
Of all the mid-range options at PF today, I think I like Markieff best. The minutes appear to have re-stabilized over 30, and the performance has followed. He's paid a steady diet of 5x+ points per dollar on these prices recently, and gets an excellent match-up against Thad Young here. Thad's perennially on the list of our favorite guys to pick on for DFS purposes, and this year has been no exception. His lax style also pairs up very poorly with Markieff's frenetic approach, and given that Morris' floor seems to be around 5x it's hard to see anything but upside in running him out there here.

John Henson FD - $5500 DK - $4600
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.33 DK - 26.94
Right, so this one doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. A lot can go wrong for Henson in any given game. He's a foul trouble risk, he doesn't score a ton, and he's one of the first guys to go if the Bucks decide to play small. I like him in this match-up though because Milwaukee will need SOME answer to Philly's size down low. Henson is sort of rebounding dependent, but I think he can put together enough value to pay it off assuming Embiid doesn't run him off the court with foul trouble. Henson doesn't come without risk, but I think he's a pretty good PF2 option.

Let's talk about Montrezl Harrell. Okay? Great match-ups recently, and excellent performances on these prices. He was high owned in cash on Friday and crushed it. But did you see how he played just 15 minutes when the game was a little bit closer. Please don't play this guy at $5,000.

Center

DeAndre Jordan FD - $7900 DK - $7600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.33 DK - 41.51
I've been saddened by the lack of opportunity to dabble in DJ this season, but it looks like we might have our chance here. Jordan is coming off a vintage performance against the Knicks, and I like his odds of rolling that back against the Nets here. It's easy to forget that prior to the last four games (all of which featured wonky game scripts) Jordan was playing 32-37 minutes per game and paying these prices handily. And one of those games was against this anemic Brooklyn front court. The Nets truly have been awful against opposing centers this season, allowing the very most fantasy points per game against them. Love DJ in any format.

Enes Kanter FD - $6200 DK - $7000
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.65 DK - 34.51
If you're looking for a little upside, though, I don't mind running Kanter out there. The minutes have been all over the place of course but we know what he's capable of when the situation breaks right. With Cauley-Stein's status uncertain we could very well be looking at a game where Kanter is going up against some combination of Kosta Koufos, Z-Bo, and Skal - and if that happens you can greatly expect to see the Knicks dumping him the ball early and often. Or he could play 17 minutes. That's the fun of big tournaments, though, isn't it? I far prefer DJ for cash, but knowing me I'll have to put a few bucks on Kanter in a GPP and spin the wheel.

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