Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 58.47 DK - 61.82
Big surprise, but we're going to lead it off with Russell Westbrook here. If I had to make a guess, he's the guy who has led this article far more often than any other PG. His price is as high as ever at high-$11k's and you have to love this match-up. If you could pick any match-up in the league for Westbrook, it's the Phoenix Suns. They play faster than anyone in the league and play 0 defense on the perimeter. Against point guards, they rank 23rd. Since Elfrid Payton came to Phoenix, they have sat at 27th. He's not necessarily a bad defender, but they have no interior defense and don't really try to. This game holds a 218 total and a -8 spread, so Vegas thinks it stays high and tight. It's going to cost you a pretty penny to pay up for Russell Westbrook, but you only get a few chances a year to see a match-up like this for him. If you can afford him, I see no reason not to.We will touch on the rest of this Thunder core as well against a fast-paced Suns team.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 16.06 DK - 16.44
If paying down is your goal at point guard, there’s a great chance Mario Chalmers ends up as the guy. We’re looking at a questionable Andrew Harrison, who is truly close to 50/50. Already seeing 15-20 minutes a night, Chalmers should have no problem getting over 25 if Harrison is ruled out, with the possibility for 30-35 as long as the game stays close. Against point guards, they rank 20th in basketball. Murray is not only a lackluster defender, but he doesn’t have any help behind him. Chalmers is an electric player when on the floor and can easily put up 40+ FP if the game stays close and he grabs the minutes. If Harrison is out, Chalmers will slide in and become one of the top value plays on the entire slate that can be played in both cash games and tourneys.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 23.33 DK - 23.46
If Andrew Harrison ends up playing or you just want to pay down at another spot, Cory Joseph is a phenomenal pivot. With Darren Collison out until at least the 4th, you can bank Cory Joseph as one of the top value plays on the board. He's been over 30 minutes in 3 of the last 4 games and got up to 36 in 2 of them. At just under $5k, you're only needing 20-25 fantasy points. His FP outputs have been weird, but he has no problem getting into the 40's if the game stays close. He's a great shooter, but has also stuffed the stat sheet quite nicely while inserted into the starting lineup. The Bucks are nothing to be afraid of, ranking 21st against point guards. They could also be without Giannis, which would put their defense into shambles. Joseph is a lock for 25 fantasy points and has a ceiling well over 40. I prefer Chalmers if Harrison is out, but we just don't know yet.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 32.2 DK - 32.83
You’re looking at an SG position tonight that has a whole lot of different ways to go. On the high-end, Oladipo and Booker can produce. Neither are musts, but have good match-ups and an affordable price. It’s not the prettiest bunch of talent, but we know 4 or 5 of these guys will surpass value and the prices are nothing to worry about. With Giannis Antetokounmpo ruled questionable, we could be looking for some huge opportunity tonight. We know Giannis holds a 30% usage rate and when he disappears this offense is in a lot of trouble. Middleton, along with Eric Bledsoe, can actually score by themselves and will be leaned on to do so if Giannis is eventually ruled out. The match-up against Indiana is nothing to write home about, ranking 13th, but Oladipo is a bit undersized and Middleton will be able to get his shots no matter what. He’s only in play for me if ABC is ruled out, but you can just lock him in for 35+ safe FP if Portnoy would ever sit down. Let’s get to some more SG options, yay.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 40.06 DK - 41.16
Beal is another guy in the mid-range that you have to love. Ever since John Wall went out, he has been the clear leader of this offense. He's held a 26% usage rate ever since and is still priced fairly at $8k. Why? He has his fair share of off-nights, occasionally putting up FP numbers like 18 and 24 FP. Around those weird outliers, you have the usual 40-50 FP that can be counted on in most games. Tonight, he faces off with DeMar DeRozan and the Raptors, who are one of the Wizards bigger "rivals" in the eastern conference. Beal can be guaranteed to play 35 minutes and shoot 20 times. If the game stays close, it'll be because he has a solid game. There is always a slight risk with Beal just having a terrible night, but he will put up 40+ in this match-up on most nights. If Giannis is out, I like Middleton more. If Giannis plays, gimme the Brad Beal.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 39.83 DK - 40.6
Small forward is pretty interesting tonight. At the top, Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable with an eye injury. If he plays, you can certainly consider him against a fast-paced Pacers squad. You then get to Kevin Durant, who always has a lot of upside and is facing a pretty weak Hawks squad. You then get to Paul George, who's in a phenomenal match-up and coming off of 2 very solid performances. You also have T.J. Warren questionable on the other side, so the Suns defense may be in even more shambles than normal. George is always a little bit risky as the 2nd fiddle in this offense, but he'll certainly get to 35 and always has the monstrous 60 point upside. Don't stray from the near-$9k price tag.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.12 DK - 25.33
Nwaba has now been over 30 minutes in each of the last 4 games and has to be considered as one of the better plays on this entire slate. The Bulls are a perfect example of what a lot of NBA teams will do this 2nd half of the year. If you want to dive in a little bit, go read tabout how not all tanking teams are created equal. We looked at Paul George first because of his price, but Nwaba is the guy I'm locking into every lineup. The Mavericks are a lackluster at best defense and have ranked 19th against the SF position. Vegas has this game at a 214 total with just a 1.5 spread, so expect it to stay close and relatively high-scoring. Nwaba is a guy the Bulls have decided to give minutes to in this 2nd half and you can almost lock in 25 fantasy points and 30+ minutes. The price is fair on both sites and this is not the guy who will end up hurting you.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 29.55 DK - 29.62
We first have to make sure T.J. Warren is ruled out. If he plays, Josh Jackson doesn't need to be played at $6k. If Warren misses, however, he can be locked into 35+ minutes and has to be considered an elite play in all formats. He put up 50+ FP last game with Warren out and ended up playing 40 minutes. That was an extremely tough match-up with the Grizzlies, who don't often give up games like that to perimeter youngsters. He now sees the Thunder, who are all but down to run the floor and put up points. Jackson is an elite rookie when on the floor and has sat at a 1.26 FP per minute on the year. He's not only a great shooter, but stays involved even without the ball. With a 218 total and 8 point spread, I have no problem targeting this game like crazy. Certainly a lot of my SF exposure will come from this affair.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.78 DK - 30.75
Melo is continuing to see minutes and is a bit too cheap at just $6k. he hasn't bee the greatest point per minute producer, but you know the shots will start to fall and there is no better spot for that to start in. Against power forwards, the Suns rank dead last. 30th. Bender and Chriss are both atrocious defenders and aren't very comfortable coming out of the paint.Melo loves playing in fast-paced games and especially needs it as the 3rd option on this Thunder team. He's not exciting at this point in his career, but is certainly considered safe at the low price tag. He'll be locked into my cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 39.43 DK - 40.59
To put it simply, Blake Griffin has sucked. He was playing well in his first few games with Detroit, but has struggled mightily ever since. He's still been over 30 fantasy points in most games outside of the last week, but I actually don't really care at all about the recent struggles. He is still the same guy we're used to and is now at an insane $7.4k price tag. It's the cheapest Griffin has been in years and while it's not the wrong price, it's hard to stay away if you think this game remains close. Personally, I probably end up with 100% Griffin. Aaron Gordon isn't a strong defender and Griffin is going to continue seeing a ton of looks in this offense. I see no real reason to avoid him unless you think the game is a blowout. Don't let a little bit of volatility scare you away. He's on a new team and adjustments are necessary. This match-up is great and the price is unbeatable.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 52.68 DK - 53.15
I don't know if this is a popular thought, but I think Andre Drummond is a top 3 center in the league. He was once an amazingly-talented 7-footer with weird instincts and horrible foul tendencies. He has turned that around like crazy this year and has looked like a genuinely smart player on most occasions. Statistically, he's been right up there as the 1st o 2nd best Center behind DeMarcus Cousins. His price has definitely risen, but he can put up 60+ FP without blinking. He gets a match-up tonight against the Magic, who rank 25th against the Center position. Vucevic is not a good defender and has no problem giving up 20 rebounds to a good enough big man. Drummond can put up 20/20 on any night and Vegas has this game at a 214 total and 2.5 point spread. Give me 30 minutes of Andre Drummond against this team and I'll give you at least 50 fantasy points. That works in any format.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 20.7 DK - 20.63
Cristiano Da Silva Felicio is a pretty interesting/weird player. When you can put up 25 FP against the Hornets and Timberwolves and throw 8 in there against the Nets, you have to be. If you watch him play, he relies on energy under the rim. he isn't very skilled, but has a huge body and can succeed against a team that has other big bodies to contend with. He sees a Mavericks squad tonight that will toss Salah Mejri and Dwight Powell at the 5. You can never call Cristiano Felicio safe, but he's safe and should have no problem putting up 20+ fantasy points.I will do my best to pay up for an Andre Drummond or Dwight Howard, but I won't be mad at all if I have to pay up for Felicio in a few spots. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below or join the live chat!
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Friday NBA sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
How is Cory Joseph a lock for 25+? Just look at his last two games 10/5/2 in 36 minutes and 0/2/3 with three turnovers in 31 minutes. He could very well go off but he's not a lock for anything.