Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
It’s Saturday night in the NBA and the action tips off at 7:30 ET. We’ve got seven games on DraftKings, and six on FanDuel. There are several teams playing on the tail end of a back to back, and Friday night brought with it a key injury, that along with some poor defenses, and a game with a 234 projected total coming out of Vegas will shape how we maneuver our lineups tonight. Let’s take a look at our system’s top picks.
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 56.21 DK - 59.16
The marquee game on tonight's slate sees the Thunder head west to Oakland for a shootout with the Warriors. Russell Westbrook has put the sluggish start to the season in the rearview, and has the pedal to the floor as OKC makes a push for playoff seeding as we make our way into the final part of the season. He only dropped 17 points against the Kings coming out of the All Star break, but it was enough to give him his second straight triple double, making for 18 on the year. Steph and Co. don't pose much of a threat here as the Dubs are average defending against the point, and they allow for a significant pace up as they play second to only the Lakers in pace of play. This game has the highest projection coming out of Vegas and it isn't even close. Triple double number 19 is all but guaranteed tonight, and our projection system loves Russ with the top raw point projection of the night.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 29.11 DK - 30.88
Though Russ is clearly a top play, raw points alone aren't enough to make it in NBA DFS, we need to maximize our value, and get the most bang for our buck. Thats where points per dollar come in to play, and at the position J.J. Barea leads the pack. He's coming in projected well above the 5X PPD mark, even in a slow match up with the Jazz. As I write this, Barea is doing very little at the end of the third quarter of the Mavericks game in L.A. against the Lakers, with 11/1/4. Tonight Barea's price is down significantly compared to last night, he really doesn't need to do much at these prices to pay value, and that's where the appeal comes in. Defensively the Jazz have struggled as of late against the position, and are ranked in the bottom third over their last ten games. Simply put for the price and the opportunity, J.J. Barea is just in too appealing spot to pass up, and is priced well within consideration for all formats.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 41.51 DK - 42.81
Kyrie Irving and the Celtics came out of the break last night in a sound defeat of the Pistons. With Boston riding a three game skid into the break, Kyrie had more to prove than just the flat earth theory, and his 18/5/6 line with a steal in just 28 minutes was just the boost the Celtics needed to keep pace with Toronto. They'll look to ride the momentum tonight in New York as they visit the Knicks. New York has the 11th most generous defense at the position this season, and over their last ten games have fallen to the bottom ten. Boston is a mere four point favorite, so if New York can keep it interesting then Kyrie should see all the run he can handle. I don't love the price on DraftKings here, but on FanDuel, as a second PG, I think we'll see enough value at the other positions to work Kyrie in with Russ which is a solid plan of attack for cash games.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.98 DK - 31.2
Originally, Andrew Wiggins was going to be my third option at shooting guard, but I'm seeing chatter that Jimmy Butler went down in Friday night's game against the Rockets, and it seems pretty serious. With Jimmy Buckets out, Wiggins becomes a much more appealing play. Per NBAWowy.com Wiggins sees his usage jump 4.3% with Butler off the court, boosting him from a good play, to a solid play worth considering in all formats. Especially given the matchup. The Bulls are a bottom five defense, not just at the two, where they allow nearly 40FP on average, but overall, Chicago's team defensive rating is the fifth worst in the game. I was planning on having a ton of exposure to this game prior to the Butler injury, but now, the potential for value coming out of Minnesota tonight is off the charts.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.87 DK - 38.97
After Wiggins, we have two plays from the same game, that are both in consideration, as both are similarly priced, and have almost identical projections. First up we have C.J. McCollum of the Blazers. After the OKC/GS game, this game has the second highest projection of the evening at 220. McCollum has been impressive shooting the rock lately, scoring 22 or better in each of his last three games. The lack of peripherals is what has hurt his fantasy value. Tonight he sees the best matchup a shooting guard can ask for in Devin Booker and the Suns. Phoenix is allowing on average 44.6 FPPG to the position this season, and over their last ten games, that number jumps by 10. McCollum is an excellent way to go, particularly in cash games, but certainly is not the only way to go, so let's take a look at Booker.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.64 DK - 39.67
Sticking with the Blazers/Suns contest we have the aforementioned Phoenix shooting guard Devin Booker. While McCollum will cost you less on FanDuel, Booker is the cheaper play on DraftKings, but both are priced so close to each other it really just comes down to whose minutes you trust more? Booker has picked up 36 and 37 minutes in his last two games, bookending the break, though last night he contributed little more than 27 points, which cut into his value significantly. That's not at all who Booker is though, as we see with his career highs this season in points (24.2), assists (4.8), and rebounds (4.4) per game at the break. The more I look at the position, the more I feel unless news breaks and a big time value play opens up, I'll most likely end up splitting my exposure between McCollum and Booker paired with Wiggins, and maybe even a little bit of Donovan Mitchell for good measure.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.57 DK - 33.68
Any doubts in regard to T.J. Warren and how the small forward's role in the Phoenix rotation might be affected with Elfrid Payton joining Devin Booker and Josh Jackson in the Phoenix backcourt were instantly crushed last night when Warren posted 43.1 FDP in just 34 minutes against the Clippers. A sharp contrast from the five points and one rebound he notched against the Jazz in 21 minutes prior to the break. Warren still has a prominent role in the Phoenix offense, and should see another chance to showcase it tonight against a Portland defense ranked in the bottom ten at the position in their last five contests. Warren can easily crush value at these prices in the right matchup, and tonight's matchup is just right.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 26.1 DK - 26.38
Sticking with the middle tier of pricing, we have the Celtics rookie phenom, Jayson Tatum. Tatum saw 20 minutes last night against the Pistons, and did little more than shoot in that stretch. He ended the night with a 15/1/0/1 line, and came in well under value against one of the easiest teams to target at the position. Tonight he'll look for redemption against a Knicks team that was below average to begin with, and now have lost their top weapon in Kristaps Porzingis. They'll stick Michael Beasley, who has one of the worst defensive ratings in the NBA on Tatum, which should present Tatum with the opportunity to perform more like he did in the Rising Stars Challenge, which would more than satisfy our cash game needs.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.57 DK - 24.99
This spot was going to be occupied by Jimmy Butler, but it seems safe to say that he will not be available tonight, and with that, it seems safe to say that Nemanja Bjelica is going to draw the start in his place, and become a tremendous value play. Bjelica started four games in January while Butler dealt with a knee injury and averaged 33.4 minutes and 26.78 FP per start. If this injury is as serious as it seems, Bjelica could be looking at an extended run in the Minnesota starting five, which makes now the opportune time to get in before the price climbs, as it will likely do relatively quickly. I'm fairly confident I'll be writing more about Bjelica as an every lineup guy in the news and update article, because I'm sure the system is going to have him everywhere tonight, and I'm going to almost surely follow suit.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.93 DK - 29.92
We've got nine teams tonight playing on the tail end of a back to back, and this game is the only one on the evening where both teams are coming in fresh. The Thunder returned from the break on Thursday night with a win over he Kings in Sacramento. Carmelo Anthony did little more than score in that one, but it was enough to pay value. Melo's price has dropped to a season low on FanDuel, and is not far off from a season low on DraftKings. He only needs to net you about 28 fantasy points to keep things competitive, and that shouldn't be too much to ask against a Warriors team that has fallen off defensively in the interior lately, allowing the third most FP to opposing power forwards in the last ten games. Despite the steady decline in cost, Melo has succeeded in posting 30+ FP performances in four of his last eight games prior to the break and for the price is an excellent option in cash games and tournaments in this exciting matchup.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.73 DK - 34.53
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.46 DK - 27.94
We've already looked at this game several times from the Timberwolves side, and we're going to once more, but we're also going to take a look at Bobby Portis on the Chicago side while we're here. Portis opened up the second half against the Sixers and was phenomenal. He posted career highs in points (38), and threes (6), in a season high 34 minutes coming off the bench and ended the evening paying 8.3X PPD. If you think he can continue to see that type of run then 5X shouldn't be asking too much even against a stingy Minnesota defense. If you worry about minutes looking at Portis, then look to the opposing Timberwolves and Taj Gibson. Gibson hit the All Star break with 12 double digit scoring performances in his last 14 games, including a career high 28 points against the Lakers to close out the first half. Gibson has been a constant source of value in the DFS basketball world this season and benefits greatly from tonight's matchup against a Bulls team that play a 100 pace and surrender the seventh most FP to the position. I like Gibson for the safety, but Portis has the potential to knock down some tournaments if he picks up the minutes.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.28 DK - 39.11
We have covered plenty of value plays tonight so paying up at center should not be a problem, and that's fantastic news, as two of our top plays are in the top tier in the form of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. We'll get to the Timberwolves All Star big guy in a moment, but first let's look at Rudy Gobert. While I prefer KAT in the pace up contest against the Bulls, for significantly less, I am content settling on Gobert if the savings are necessary. The Frenchman has shown the ability to put up a 40+ FP performance with ease, as he did last night against Portland. While the Blazers are one of the leagues tougher opponents for a big man, the Mavs interior is a mess this season, and over the last five games, they have been a bottom ten defense at the five. This game has one of the lowest projections coming out of Vegas, but for the price and opportunity, if there's a play to target from this game, Gobert is an excellent one.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.28 DK - 46.15
Karl Anthony Towns posted his league leading 52nd double double of the season last night against the Rockets. It was his fourth straight, and his 12th in his last 13 games. When you're among the league leaders in rebounds per game, (Towns' 12.1PG is fifth best in the NBA) the double doubles come easily. Towns finds himself in a great spot tonight. Not only does he go against the games second most generous team to the position, but he also stands to see a 2.5% bump in usage with the loss of Jimmy Butler. With Westbrook and Kevin Durant being the only $10K plays on the board tonight, paying up for Gobert or Towns shouldn't be a herculean task. You can't go wrong with either, if you need the extra salary then Gobert is fine, but I give the slight edge to Towns, and will try my best to squeeze him in, particularly in cash games where he should easily hit value.
Thanks for reading, good luck out there tonight. Be sure to look for the news and injury updates post about an hour before we lock tonight. Cheers!!
image sources
Week 12 DraftKings and FanDuel cash game NFL plays.
DraftKings and FanDuel Week 11 cash game NFL plays
Week 10 NFL cash game picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings
View Comments
No more NBA sheets?
thank you for the write up...some great picks last night...any tips on memphis tonight with Tyreke out?...Ty
Whats up with optimizer??
???