Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Atlanta Motor Speedway
Track - 1.5 Mile Intermediate
I may be a bit biased as I attended Speedweeks in Daytona but the entertainment value was absolutely through the roof. From the Truck race where Johnny Sauter won to the Xfinity race that saw Tyler Reddick win by the closest margin in NASCAR history and finally the 60th running of the Daytona 500 where Austin Dillon in the iconic #3 car for Richard Childress Racing took home the win on the 20th anniversary of Dale Sr. winning there. It was also very special for me as Austin Dillon was my very first interview and I may now be a fan for life. Speaking of interviews, I also got to talk to Bubba Wallace who came in second this past weekend in his first race as a full-time Cup driver.
Now the grind really begins as the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this Sunday. It will be the first mile and a half race of the season and one of the driver's favorite tracks as the surface is one of the oldest in the sport where tires wear down quick and cars slide around making it a big challenge. After 20 years since its last repave, Atlanta was scheduled to have the work done following last seasons triple-header weekend but the drivers got together and pretty much begged track owner Bruton Smith to hold off. It worked and they decided to patch it for this season and so hopefully the hot weather forecast won't affect the surface or the racing in general.
For fantasy, we completely flip our strategy from last week where we targeted place differential heavily. We now get back to dominator fantasy where we must really pay attention to practice speeds, especially 10-lap averages to help figure out who is going to lead laps and produce a ton of fast laps. I mean, just look at Kevin Harvick here at Atlanta. He has not won a race here in the last six years but has led 835 laps and has averaged over 40 DraftKings points per race than any other driver.
Let's now take a look at some of the trends and pre-qualifying picks going into this weeks race.
Like I mentioned in the intro, Kevin Harvick has been dominant here at Atlanta lately from a fantasy perspective. Despite not winning or even picking up a Top 5, he has averaged 110.4 DraftKings points in those two races as he has led a whopping 423 laps with 100 fast laps. The only thing that kept him from winning last year was a late pit road speeding penalty. Brad Keselowski took advantage of Harvick's mistake last year and ended up passing Kyle Laron with seven laps to go to take home the win. He finished ninth in 2016 after starting 17th and that combination gives him the second-best average DK points per race over the last two years. Chase Elliott finished 5th last year and 8th in 2016 and combined to pick up 22 place differential points and 35 fast laps to come in third in average DK points per race. Jimmie Johnson won his fifth career race here in 2016 after starting 19th and despite a 19th place finish last year still sits inside the Top 5 of average DK points per race. Atlanta has been one of the mile and a half tracks Martin Turex Jr. has not dominated recently but he has been consistent finishing Top 10 in back to back years giving him the fifth-most DK points per race. Each and every one of these drivers listed above should be on your radar this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson won back to back races here at Atlanta in 2015 and 2016 and was a huge fantasy asset in both those years as he started 19th and 37th in those races to provide elite place differential value. The wins were his 4th and 5th of his career and he has also finished Top 5 in over 50% of his 26 races here. He struggled last year finishing 19th but the #48 team wasn't great on mile and a half tracks and I fully expect that to change in 2018 in the new Chevrolet Camaro ZL1. Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne sit second on the career win list here at Atlanta when looking at active drivers with three wins apiece. Kahne has two more Top 5's but Kurt leads the way when looking at the fantasy numbers as he has led more laps(749), had better place differential and has a better average finish(15.6). Kyle Busch is the only other active driver with multiple wins here(2) but surprisingly has just six Top 10 finishes in 19 career races. He also has the second-best career average finish(15.3) of the drivers with more than two races here. He will be looking to bounce back after a poor performance last year when he started 3rd and finished 16th(-13 PD points) and led zero laps. Kevin Harvick started his career here at Atlanta with a win and 3rd place finish back in 2001 but struggled for a long time after that with just three Top 20 finishes in 12 races. Like I mentioned above, however, he has been dominant from a fantasy perspective lately with 835 laps led in his last six races and nine Top 10's in his 11 races here.
The entire field in the Monster Energy Cup Series will be working overtime to try and catch up to what the #78 team and Martin Truex Jr. have been doing with their mile and a half track program. He not only finished all 12 races in 2017 inside the Top 10 but also won seven of them including the championship race at Homestead. On top of that, he led 1,208 laps and led and led the field with an average of 95.5 DraftKings points per race. Kevin Harvick is next up on the list. He only won once on a mile and a half tracks last season but finished Top 10 in 11 of the 12 races with six Top 5's and 729 laps led. He did this despite a change in manufacturer from Chevrolet to Ford last season. Kyle Busch also won one race on a mile and a half tracks last season but was not anywhere near as consistent with seven Top 10 finishes but made up for it with 519 laps led giving him 52.8 DraftKings points per race. Bubba Wallace filled in for Aric Almirola last season and impressed at Kentucky finishing 11th after starting 17th. He brings a ton of momentum into this weekend after a runner-up at the Daytona 500 but will likely be high owned and worth a fade until we see more from him on the mile and a half tracks. Denny Hamlin started the season out very inconsistent on mile and a half tracks finishing outside the Top 20 in three of the first four races but turned it around with Top 10 finishes in each of the final eight races which include his win at Darlington. He didn't lead a ton of laps(250) and only picked up positive place differential in four of the 12 races which limited him to an average of 41.8 DraftKings points per race.
Kevin Harvick($10,100)
He almost won last year's race after leading 292 laps but a pit road penalty left him with a 9th place finish. Altogether, he has led 100 or more laps in five of his last six races here and averaged 98.1 DraftKings points per race and that is without a win in that span. On top of that, he comes at a $300 discount from Martin Truex Jr. who tops the salary this week. I will be targeting the #4 in all formats regardless of qualifying position.
Chase Elliott($9,500)
Chase has raced here in Atlanta in the Cup Series twice and finished inside the Top 10 both times(8th & 5th) and also picked up positive place differential in both. That helped him get to the second-highest average DK points per race on this track behind Harvick. He was also solid on the mile and a half tracks this past season with nine Top 10 finishes in those 12 races with seven of them inside the Top 5.
Kasey Kahne($6,200)
Kahne might be overlooked this week as he moved down to a lesser team and struggled on the mile and half tracks last season with just two Top 10 finishes. One of those Top 10's, however, came here at Atlanta after starting 29th giving up a tremendous fantasy day. It was his 10th Top 10 here in Atlanta in 20 career races and he is just too cheap to pass up with those stats.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
I am not a big NASCAR fan but am trying to learn the DFS game. Your cheat sheets and videos are awesome!! It is also making me want to watch the races!!
Thanks Robert.
Adding to the video/article, I like Dibenedetto as a punt to help get 3 of Hamlin, Truex, Kyle Busch, Harvick in a lineup.