Daily Fantasy NBA - Consistency, Scoring and Fun Facts from the First Half of the Season

While not technically the halfway point of the NBA season (most teams have played 56-57 games which really represents about 68% of the season) it's always fun to take part of the All-Star Break and break down some trends and numbers.

On Monday, we looked back at some of the top (and bottom) individual game performers prior to the All-Star Break. Today, let's just take a cursory look at some other fun factoids.

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Top Fantasy Performers and Consistency Ratings

The age old question we get goes something like this: "Is so-and-so safe tonight?" Safety is such a relative term regarding daily fantasy performance and varies based on the risk tolerance of the person asking as well as the context in a given player on a given night. That being said, we can take a look at some of the top fantasy performers this season and see how they compare to each other.

This chart plots out the top, per-game fantasy scorers on the season (with Demarcus Cousins removed) and compares their coefficient of variation (standard deviation/ mean performance) to get a sense of what top scoring superstars are "safer" than others. Of course, this doesn't factor nightly salary into the equation but there are some things that stick out. First off, we all know Anthony Davis is volatile because of his propensity to leave games early. But considering his average performance, and just how far to the right of the graph he lives, this really tells the story of why rolling him out in cash games makes for such a dicey (and often heartbreaking) proposition.

Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook and Giannis Antetokounmpo live alone in their own little world of nightly crushing. Davis's inconsistency is wrapped (almost entirely) in his health (or lack thereof). Giannis and Westbrook both have incredibly consistent minutes on a nightly basis and contribute across all parts of the box score. This is the perfect recipe.

Curry is something of a surprise considering how we often think of him as scoring dependent. But he's been a remarkably well-rounded player again this season. He's averaging the second-most rebounds of his career (5.2/ game) and the Warriors have played in fewer blowout games, leading to more consistent minutes (he has that same CV of minutes, .11, as Westbrook and Giannis).

I'm not shocked by Oladipo's place in the scatter considering the clustering of defensive stats along with some volume scoring games.

Players Dependent on Actual Scoring

This list is mostly, as one would expect, traditional shooting guard types who primarily play off the ball and rely on running through screens to get open looks. But Irving and Murray are the two point guards who see an outsized dependence on actual scoring.

Other fun facts:

• • Draymond Green sees 21% of his fantasy scoring from assists. He’s the only non-point guard (I’m counting Ben Simmons as a PG) in the top 16 of this ratio. He's actually 4th, overall, in the league in assists per game. That's remarkable considering his position, though more understandable considering he's unselfish and playing with three generational shooters.
  • Tim Hardaway’s standard deviation of 13.3 Fantasy Points on an average of 28.17 per game is the thing of nightmares. That’s what you get from a guy who spent the month of February shooting 22% from three and January at 40%. He's all over the place on a night-to-night basis. His coefficient of variation is a whopping .47 which makes Anthony Davis seem positively safe by comparison. Here's a chart that outlines the peaks and valleys of his season: