Kyle Larson races during the NASCAR Cup Series auto race in Brooklyn, Mich., Sunday, Aug. 13, 2017. Larson won the race. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
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Welcome back to another exciting season of daily fantasy NASCAR. We are now just 10 days from the 60th running of the Daytona 500 so I wanted to put together a season preview series looking at each team and driver and their average fantasy production on each track type from 2017 and their outlook going into the 2018 season. If you are new to fantasy NASCAR, especially on DraftKings, be sure to check out my strategy article coming out soon covering some basic strategy for cash games and GPP formats.
The first team in this preview article series that will see no changes in their drivers going into the 2018 season. Both Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray are back in the #42 and #1 after a successful 2017 season. Larson broke out in a big way in his fourth NASCAR Cup Series season with four wins, 15 Top 5's, and 20 Top 10 finishes. McMurray didn't record a win in 2017 but did pick up three Top 5's and 17 Top 10's and posted the ninth-best average finish(14.6) in the series. Both drivers also made the Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs and will be looking for even more in 2018. Now let's take a look at how each driver performed when looking at the fantasy numbers.
Larson came hot out of the gates in the 2017 season and almost took home the Daytona 500 before running out of fuel in the final laps. He then went on to finish runner-up at Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Phoenix coming so close to grabbing his second career win. He got that win the next week as he started from the pole at Auto Club Speedway and battled through multiple late-race cautions to eventually grab the checkered flag. That win propelled him to a huge breakout season where he won twice at Michigan and then Richmond sending him to the playoffs as the #2 seed. He easily made it through the Round of 16 with three straight Top 5 finishes and followed that up in the Round of 8 with a 10th and 13th place finish and looked like he was in a great spot to advance. That was until he got to Kansas where an engine failure put an end to his playoff run and was the start of a terrible four-race stretch where he blew two engines and was in two crashes. He did, however, close the season out on a high note as he finished third to Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch at Homestead and very well could have won the race. Let's dig in and look at his fantasy performance on each track type last season.
Larson absolutely dominated the two-mile tracks in 2017 winning the California race and then followed it up by winning both Michigan races making it three straight there. The only thing keeping him out of the lead in average fantasy points per race(Truex led) was the fact he started from the pole twice and was limited in place differential points. Can anyone touch him in 2018?
He has yet to pick up a win at a one-mile track but has been oh so close and itis just a matter of time before he enters Victory Lane at one of these tracks. He started the season with four straight runner-ups at Phoenix, Dover, and New Hampshire x2 then finished 5th at Dover and despite blowing an engine at the Phoenix in the playoffs finished third with an average of 72.6 DraftKings points per race. From a fantasy perspective, he was most dominant at Dover where he led a total of 378 laps.
Larson took a big step forward on the mile and a half tracks in 2017 as he finished with eight Top 10's and 12.9 average finish in the 12 races. It could have been so much better as well if not for a blown engine at Kansas and a crash at both Texas and Charlotte. He also picked up more than double the laps led in 2017 with 362(177 in 2016) and finished with the third-most DraftKings points per race behind Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick.
Going into 2017, short tracks were Larson's kryptonite as he tallied just four Top 10's in his first 17 races as a part of a full-time ride with a 17.1 average finish. He turned things around last season as he picked up three Top 10's in six races including his first career short track win at Richmond. He also led more than three times as many laps in those six races last year(353) than he did in the previous three years combined.
Like I mentioned in the intro, Larson nearly came away with the Daytona 500 to kick off the year but ran out of gas. He wasn't great on restrictor plate tracks last year(no Top 10's) but he wasn't terrible either finishing 13th or better in three of the four races. He was also running inside the Top 3 at the summer Daytona race in the closing laps before being contacted by the #17 of Stenhouse and going airborne. That left him with a 29th place finish and after the four races ended up 15th in average DK points per race.
Larson has been very consistent on the 2.5-mile tracks in his career and went into the 2017 season with six Top 10's and no finish worse than 12th in nine races. The success continued at Pocono where he came in 7th but went downhill after that as he was involved in an accident at Indianapolis finishing 28th and then struggled the next week in the second Pocono race and came in 33rd. The negative place differential in those final two races left him with an average of just 19.1 DK points per race. Look for a bounce back in 2018.
Road Courses have been his Achilles heel in his career as he went into 2017 with just one Top 10 and four Top 20 finishes in six races. That struggles continued last year as he finished 26th at Sonoma and 23rd at Watkins Glen and after starting on the front row in both of those races, ended up with a -46 place differential leaving him witan a ugly average of just .1 DK points per race.
2018 Outlook: Big things are in store for Kyle Larson as he enters his fifth season in the Monster Energy Cup Series. He broke out in a big way with four wins in 2017 and I truly believe that is his floor in 2018. He has won three straight Michigan races so there is no doubt he is the overwhelming favorite there and it is only a matter of time before he enters Victory Lane on a mile and half track as he finished runner-up four times in 2017 with six Top 5 finishes. I am predicting five to six wins this season and a trip to the final four at Homestead where he very well could be the favorite with three Top 5 finishes in five career races.
McMurray hasn't won in the Cup series since the fall race at Talladega in 2013 but he was consistent in 2017 with 17 Top 10 finishes(8th most in the series) and made the playoffs for the third straight year. In terms of fantasy numbers, he wasn't as consistent as in real life as he finished with the 23rd best average(20th when you remove part-time drivers) when looking at DraftKings points per race. The issue was that he led just 21 laps all year, picked up positive place differential just 11 times and double-digit place differential just four times. Let's take a look at how he did at each track type this past season.
McMurray picked up Top 10's at California and both Michigan races last year but also qualified inside the Top 10 at each race limiting his place differential points. Overall, it was a successful year as he finished with the 9th best average DK points per race in those three races on two-mile tracks.
The one-mile tracks(New Hampshire, Phoenix, Dover) have not been his best tracks throughout his career but he much better in 2017. He finished Top 20 in all six races with three Top 10's and an 11.7 average finish. Two of his four double-digit place differential races also came at Dover. He finished with the 12th best average DK points per race over those six races.
McMurray was much better on the mile and half tracks in 2017 with eight Top 10's in 12 races with an 11.8 average finish after struggling in 2016 with just three Top 10's and a 16.6 average finish. The issue from a fantasy perspective was that he also improved his qualifying(10.5 average starting position) limiting him to just four races with positive place differential.
He finished 10th at Sonoma and 14th Watkins Glen but once again qualifying inside the Top 10 at both races hurt his fantasy value as he tallied negative place differential in both races.
The year started off with a hard crash at Martinsville when McMurray was running inside the Top 10 with under 30 laps to go. He then went on to finish 14th or better at both Bristol and Richmond races before struggling at Martinsville in the playoffs finishing 29th. Once again, qualifying near the front limited his place differential and his lack of success at Martinsville left him 28th in average DK points per short track race.
While McMurray has four career wins on restrictor plate tracks(two at Daytona & two at Talladega), it is his worst track type when looking at average finish(21.7). That inconsistency continued in 2017 as he ended up with finishes of 28th and 14th at Daytona and 2nd and 37th at Talladega.
Indianapolis has been one of his better tracks throughout his career and he even has a Brickyard 400 win under his belt. He has just one Top 10 since that win in 2010 and came in 15th last season after looking strong in qualifying as he started on the second row. Pocono, however, has not been one of his better tracks(19.9 average finish) and it didn't get much better in 2017 as he finished 37th and 26th there.
2018 Outlook: He has winning upside on the restrictor plate tracks but I won't go as far as to predict a win there this season. I think he stays consistent on the intermediate tracks but if he comes anywhere near as successful in qualifying he makes a tough play in fantasy most weeks with minimal place differential upside. I do, however, think his consistency will get him bck into the playoffs in 2018.
Stay tuned as the Chip Ganassi Racing 2017 review and 2018 outlook article will be out within the next week. If you would like to start researching for the 2018 season, grab a copy of my race by race trends sheet below(click on the pic) showing drives salaries and DraftKings for every race last year as well as average points per track type. Cheers!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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