Bill Murray prepares to hit out of a bunker onto the third green during the celebrity challenge event of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am golf tournament Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2017, in Pebble Beach, Calif. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
Business is booming as the fourth straight week with a playoff on the PGA Tour ended with Gary Woodland hoisting the Waste Management Phoenix Open trophy this past Sunday. He beat out local boy Chez Reavie on the first playoff hole after a wild final round that started with 13 golfers within three shots of the lead. Look for the excitement to continue as the players now head to one of the most historic and iconic courses in America.
This week the PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach, California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Like two weeks ago at the CareerBuilder Challenge, the players will be dealing with a three-course rotation with a 54-hole cut including the Top 60 and ties. Jordan Spieth returns as the defending champion and joins a loaded field that includes three of the Top 5, five of the Top 10, and 17 of the Top 50 players in the World.
All three courses come in under 7,000 yards and while the weather can play a huge factor in the final score, the average winning score has been -17 over the past five years so scoring will be at a premium. Different players have had success on different courses but overall, Monterey Peninsula ranks as the easiest of the three while Spy Glass ranks as the hardest of the three.
From a fantasy standpoint, it makes sense to employ a stars and scrubs strategy in both cash games and GPP formats this week as each player gets an extra round with the three-course rotation. With the emphasis on birdies and scoring, that means the fantasy scores will be much higher and less likely that a scrape by six of six team will not necessarily cash in all formats.
Let's take a look at each of the courses and previous winners here at Pebble Beach then jump into the top stats in my model and top picks when looking at Course History, Current Form, and Stat rankings.
**Click HERE or the images above to see a breakdown of each course over at PGATour.com **
With shorter courses, wider fairways, and smaller greens a big emphasis will be on approach shots if players are wanting to shoot low scores. I also list Proximity from 100-125 yards as a key stat as that is the area where the most approach shots will come from this week. With smaller greens, it will also be important to get up and down so I have included Strokes Gained: Around the Green. The Par 5's are also a great spot for players to make up a ton of scoring so combining that with Birdie or Better % is a great way to find upside.
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag Counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (6/1)
Draftkings ($11,700)
FanDuel ($12,800)
The world #1 is back this week after a hot start to the season where he has finished T2 a the WGC-HSBC Champions and won the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He now returns to Pebble Beach where he has been near dominant in his career. He has finished Top 5 in three of the last four years, has won here twice(2010 & 2009) and nearly won the US Open here in 2010 if not for an epic final round meltdown. He always stands out from a statistical standpoint as well ranking 7th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1st in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 10th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 1st in Par 5 Scoring and Birdie or Better %. He is the most expensive golfer on both sites but with some of the excellent values down below and a 54-hole cut event, he can be used in all formats this week.
Pat Perez
World Golf Ranking (#19)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($10.300)
Perez is back on American soil this week and returns to an event he has been very comfortable at over the years. He has made the cut here in six straight years including a T14 last year and two Top 10 finishes and has made the cut in 13 of his 15 trips to Pebble Beach. He started the season out in style with a win at CIMB Classic in October and has been very consistent with two other Top 5 finishes(CJ Cup & tournament of Champions) and has finished no worse than T34(OHL Classic) in five starts on the PGA Tour. He hasn't been the greatest off the tee in 2017-18(97th) but has been on point with the approach shots ranking 25th on Tour and 16th in the field when looking at my sheet. Speaking of the stat ranks on my sheet, he also ranks 17th in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in Bogey Avoidance, and 9th in Birdie or Better %. At his current price, he is a safe play in all formats.
Jason Day
World Golf Ranking (#10)
Vegas Odds (10/1)
Draftkings ($10,900)
FanDuel ($12,300)
After going through his first winless season in four years in 2017, Day came out hot with back to back T11 finishes at the CJ Cup and WGC-HSBC Champions before picking up win #1 at the Farmers Insurance Open in his third start of the season. He somewhat fooled the fantasy world(myself included) after withdrawing from the Pro-Am on Wednesday which was good news for those who played him as was only owned around 12% on average in GPP formats. He now comes back to Pebble Beach where he has been very consistent making six of seven cuts in his career with four Top 10 finishes including a T5 last season. Like I mentioned with DJ, I think we can easily fit one of the top priced players in our cash lineups this week and Day also makes a very high upside GPP play.
Kevin Streelman
World Golf Ranking (#167)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,300)
FanDuel ($8,700)
Streelman has been as consistent as anyone this season making all eight cuts with a Top 10 and four Top 25 finishes. He also comes back to Pebble Beach having finished inside the Top 20 in back to back years and has made the cut here in six of his last seven trips. He also stands out in some key areas when looking at the stats as he ranks 23rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 18th in Proximity from 100-125 Yards, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, and 7th in Scrambling. While he has lacks overall upside and hasn't won on Tour since the 2014 season, he does make a solid cash game play on both sites at a discount considering his 80/1 odds in relation to others in his price range.
Chesson Hadley
World Golf Ranking (#68)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($8,500)
FanDuel ($9,500)
If you thought Hadley's fall season success wouldn't carry over, you were dead wrong as he picked up his fourth Top 5 finish this season last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and has now made the cut in all eight events he has played. What has really stands out and the reason he comes up big in my stats model this week is his approach shots as he ranks 4th on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Approach and #1 on my sheet(weighted 2016-17/2017-18 stats). He is also ranked 20th on my sheet in Proximity from 100-125 yards and 9th in 125-150 yards. That isn't the end of it either as he also ranks 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Birdie or Better %, and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. He missed the cut here at Pebble Beach in his last trip in 2016 but had recorded back to back Top 10 finishes in 2014 and 2015. I will have exposure to him in all formats this week.
Scott Piercy
World Golf Ranking (#121)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($9,400)
Piercy is coming off his first missed cut of the season and that combined with his mediocre history here(MC in both 2010 & 2011 and T55 last year) could help bring his ownership back down into the sub 10% range this week. I don't trust him for cash games but think he makes an excellent addition to a stars and scrubs GPP lineup this week and what I like most is that he fits the mold when looking at the stats. Looking at my sheet, he ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 18th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 12th in Proximity from 125-150 Yards, 27th in Par 5 Scoring, and 12th in Birdie or Better %.
$10K+ Range
Dustin Johnson and Jason Day lead the way in tags in the upper tier and will be two of the top owned golfers in almost every format thanks to all the values in the bottom tier. I have no problem going overweight on them and feel we can find some lower owned pivots from the obvious chalk plays in the bottom tiers to separate ourselves. While Jordan Spieth comes in third in tags in this tier and fifth overall, his sentiment rating is dropping fast after another terrible putting performance. He has lost at least -1.7 strokes to the field in four straight tournaments and now ranks 195th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the season. Ouch! If you are looking to go contrarian and believe he can turn it around, this may be the week to use him GPP formats.
Rory McIlroy and Jon Rham will likely come at big ownership discounts this week making them both excellent GPP pivots off the chalk if you locked in in the chalk in the lower tiers. McIlroy is not only making his first appearance on the PGA Tour this season but also his first appearance at Pebble Beach. He does have some solid form on the Euro Tour with Top 5 finishes in three of his last four events(Omega Dubai Desert Classic, Abu Dhabi HSBC Champions, British Masters). Rahm has seen his ownership drop each week since the Tournament of Champions and will very likely see another drop this week with a loaded top tier. He was in contention at the WMPO last week before a final round meltdown that saw him lose -3.2 strokes to the field Tee to Green. I look for a bounce-back this week as he returns to Pebble where he posted a Top 5 last season in his first trip. Looking at my sheet, Rahm also ranks #2 in average DraftKings points over his last five events and best of all you don't need a ton of exposure to be overweight on the field.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
Jagerbombs...love the spreadsheet. Thanks for all the work on it. Is it possible for me to change it though? Like instead of 30% on SGA can I make it 35 or 40? Then it maybe give me a different ranking of players. I’m decent at the basics of using computer/documents do not sure if I’m missing something or because it’s free that you put out(which I appreciate) it’s just set the way you have it?
Watch his UTube video.....very informative