Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) grabs a rebound against the Utah Jazz during the second half in an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won 102-73. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 43.61 DK - 44.67
Welcome to NBA Monday! Super Bowl Sunday delivered us a big surprise with an Eagles W, but now we have to move on. We have 7 games to look at and none that really stand out. None really stand down either as useless affairs with low totals. Every game Vegas has dropped so far is sitting between a 210 and 214 total. They're also all within 6 points, so expect them to be close. We'll open up point guard with the most expensive option on the board, Kemba Walker. Walker and the Hornets have been absolutely phenomenal as of late and his chemistry with Dwight Howard is impeccable. He's seeing 35-40 minutes in most games and saw just 34 last night against the Suns. He should be plenty ready for a full run tonight against a weak Nuggets defense. On the season, the Nuggets rank 23rd against point guards. Jamal Murray is an average defender, but the problems come when you get past Murray. Jokic and Lyles are atrocious rim protectors and it's why they rank 26th in FG efficiency in the paint. His price is getting up there, but it makes sense when you look at the consistency and constant ceiling. Don't be afraid to start off at PG with some safety.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.48 DK - 31.61
There's a difference between chasing points and jumping on a guy that's in a different spot than we're used to. Ricky Rubio isn't playing like this for no reason. He's had the ball in his hands a ton over the last 5 games (24% usage) and has been a lowkey consistent option for the better part of a month now. He's shooting a lot more than he ever has and seems to be asserting himself as the controller of this offense. Donovan Mitchell is currently questionable and would obviously steal some usage, but he's been in for all but 1 game, so it's not a deal-breaker. If you've been playing NBA DFS this year, you're well aware of this match-up. The Pelicans rank dead last against point guards and have absolutely no hope of stopping anyone. Do yourself a favor and watch the last Jazz game. Ricky Rubio is involved and he's going nowhere. The match-up is perfect and there aren't many better options at the position. His price has risen, but he's still fine for 30+ in cash games and 40+ in tournaments if the game stays close. I do prefer him just slightly over Kemba Walker for the $. Personally, I have 100% Rubio, but that's admittedly optimistic.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.28 DK - 28.47
If you're looking to pay down a bit, you can't do much better than Darren Collison. It's never what you want to go off of, but just go ahead and take a look at those box scores. Consistent is the only word that can possibly come to mind. While his minutes are a bit jumpy between 25 and 35 depending on how close the game is, he always gets to that 20 FP mark. He's typically looking at 28-34, which is incredible for under $6k. The match-up against Washington is a bit of an unknown without Wall, but they've been pretty bad. Since he went out, the Wizards rank 29th against PG's. Satoransky and Frazier are both subpar and don't have anyone underneath to make up for it. Both of these teams play slightly above average speed and it's why we're seeing a 213 total. Collison is extremely safe with a 24+ floor. He's also a gem in tournaments as he can hit 40 with ease if this game stays close. Point guard is always a pretty packed position, but you have to at least consider the consistency that Collison provides at the price.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 41.17 DK - 42.39
What did you expect with John Wall out? Aside from a 4-5% usage bump, the ball is in his hands all game long and he's the one with it down the stretch. He's been over 47 fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 games, hitting 67 a week ago. We're looking at Beal work into his prime and it's a beautiful sight to watch. He's one of the smarter guards in the league and it's why he garnered so much attention at UF as just a freshman. The team stunk and didn't have much working for them, but he stood out because of the IQ. The margin is obviously much smaller in the NBA, but the point still stands. He understands how to attack certain defenses and does a good job of changing his game if need be. He's not just scoring with Wall out, either. He's putting up 7+ assists and rebounds and has been all over the floor. This game against the Pacers is expected to be close (-2.5), so look for Beal to pick up at least35 minutes with the possibility to work towards 40. Victor Oladipo is a fine defender, but there's a reason the Pacers rank 17th against SG's. They play fast and don't help much underneath.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 20.05 DK - 20.42
With Donovan Mitchell and Rodney Hood both questionable to play, there's a good shot we see a lot of Alec Burks tonight. Even if that means 25 minutes, that's plenty. He's far too cheap for his talent as a guy that's basically guaranteed to produce when on the floor. He's sitting well over 1.3 FP per minute this year and seems to take over every time he has the ball. If it weren't for the disgusting injury history, we're looking at 35 minutes and a keystone starter in Alec Burks. He's still young and recovering, so they won't let him go over 30 minutes. Fortunately, we only need about 16-20 to make us happy at $3600. He will be over that number with ease if given the opportunity. It really just comes down to Donnie Mitchell. If he plays, you can find better value than Burks. If Mitchell is out, Burks is locked into 24+ minutes and 20 fantasy points. The match-up is tremendous against a Pelicans squad that sits 24th against SG's. Make sure he's going to get minutes and plug Burks in for the extreme, yet reasonable value.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.87 DK - 27.23
There's no getting around the weirdness that is Jonathon Simmons. When he gets the minutes, there is no debating what goes on. He's going to be around 1FP per minute and you really just have to figure out how much he's going to play. He's seeing between 25 and 35 a night and they have been pretty unpredictable. However, this match-up against Miami makes a lot of sense for Simmons. He also played 35 and 31 minutes the last 2 times these teams played, so it seems to line up just about right. Simmons is sitting all the way at $4500, so you only need 20-25 to be happy in cash games. You're looking at the clear worst position on this slate and you have to go somewhere. You also need to pay down in a few spots, so why not take out 2 birds with 1 stone. Simmons still gives you a lot of upside and can't really hurt you at his depressed price. He's a fine play in all formats, though I'm not asking you to get excited.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 32.36 DK - 31.99
We look at Bradley Beal a lot with John Wall out and rightfully so, but Otto Porter picks up just as much usage. He obviously doesn't have the ball in his hands a ton, but it ends there a lot more with Wall out. He's shooting just as much as Brad Beal and has been more efficient. His price is up, but you have to expect it when you're seeing 30+ every night and 40+ on most. He's a completely different player with Wall out of the lineup and should be regarded as such. The match-up on paper isn't great against Indy, but I don't see Lance Stephenson or Bogdanovic slowing down Porter. He's a lot bigger than both and has dominated far superior defenders in just the last few days. Small forward is ugly and you're almost hard pressed to find anyone, so paying all the way up may not be a bad idea. I see Porter finishing around 40 once again tonight, but wouldn't be surprised to see over 50 if he gets hot from behind the arc.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.39 DK - 33.15
With Nikola Mirotic in New Orleans and Lauri Markkanen ruled out, lock in 24+ minutes for Bobby Portis. That may not seem like much, but he's a guy who's putting up 20 FP a night in 15 minutes. Now that we can count on 24+, it's safe to assume 25 fantasy points with a realistic 45 point upside. He's been over 28 FP in each of the last 2 games since Mirotic was traded and I don't see that changing tonight. For one, the Kings rank 24th against power forwards. Zach Randolph is a fun offensive player, but is absolutely atrocious on defense. He's not only slow, but has shown poor effort. Portis shoots a ton and is involved in what seems like every single offensive possession. His rice is rising, but it's not high enough. I'll have Portis in all of my cash games ao one of the weaker positions on the board.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.39 DK - 30.06
If Hassan Whiteside is ruled out, Kelly Olynyk is a great option. He played 40 minutes against the Sixers with him out last game and can be locked in for at least 30. If Whiteside plays, completely ignore Olynyk. The match-up against Orlando isn't anything to excited about, but it's nothing to be scared of either. Both Gordon and Hezonja are pretty average and play next to a useless rim protector, so Olynyk won't have an issue getting anything done. He's always a very productive player when on the floor and is close to a lock in cash games if given the opportunity. Vegas expects this game to be close and look will be in there down the stretch if it does. It's hard to love such a volatile player, but you know you're getting production if Whiteside is out. I still prefer Portis for the price, but I don't hate the idea of going both in the mid-range and hoping for a combined 60-70.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.62 DK - 42
If you want to pay up at power forward, Blake Griffin is certainly an option. I don't think he's anywhere near a must, but you want to absolutely pay attention to what's going on here. He's seeing the ball in almost every possession and is seeing isolations a lot more often than he did in Los Angeles. It's almost like they're utilizing the superstar instead of trying to get the superstar to fit into their system. Hey Clips, give it a try. The price is up there for Griffin, but you can see the 60 fantasy points ready to explode. He's doing everything when out there and is just waiting for his shot to fall for the upside to come. The match-up against Portland is an interesting one. On paper, Aminu is solid. In real-life, he's struggled immensely with Griffin. He's far too big and can bully him underneath with ease. You don't have to pay up here, but Griffin should be good for 40 fantasy points at a somewhat affordable price tag.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.7 DK - 39.92
We're going to look at the 2 best rebounders in the league here at Center. They're both facing teams who can't figure out how to rebound. Starting with DeAndre Jordan, he's as safe as you can find. Now that he's back healthy, you can count on 15+ rebounds and 10+ points every single night. In a match-up with Salah Mejri and the Mavericks interior, I can't find a reason to stay away. We're also looking at a Blake Griffin-less Clippers, so there's a lot more to go around in the paint. Expect 30 fantasy points out of Jordan as a floor with the upside for a lot more if it stays close. The Mavs have absolutely no skilled big men and I don't think anyone will have a lick of success at stopping him from grabbing rebounds. His price is yet to get over $8k, so you can go with DJ in all formats imaginable. Center is somewhat deep tonight, but Jordan is clearly my favorite cash option.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 44.8 DK - 45.86
If you're able to pay up at Center, you can go, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, or Nikola Jokic. Davis always has 70 point upside and the Jazz have been worse against centers, but he still is facing Rudy Gobert at nearly $12k. I'll go elsewhere in my cash games. Here we have Andre Drummond and the Pistons facing off with Portland, who we've already touched on. They have a putrid interior that the likes of Griffin and Drummond should carve up. Nurkic isn't a bad offensive player, but he stinks at rebounding and doesn't play much help defense. That's a problem against a team that sets more screens than almost anyone. Drummond is playing better than ever and it's hard to not rely on 15 points and 15 rebounds. As long as this game stays close, we could easily be looking at another 60 from Drummond. It doesn't seem so crazy anymore, either. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below if you have any questions!
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