Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
What better way to spend your Superbowl Sunday than playing DFS and staring at your phone when everyone else is chatting about the Big Game (TM) and eating guacamole? I say there is none. We actually have a pretty interesting slate today, with lots of bad defenses, some injury news, and plenty of good big money playoffs. Let's go!
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 55.38 DK - 58.88
With a fair amount of value and fast paced match-ups going today, it's hard to imagine that Westbrook isn't the highest owned big money play on the slate. His recent game log tells something of a scattered tale - several excellent performances in pretty tough match-ups, and then some eggs lain in good match-ups with New Orleans and Brooklyn. Well today certainly qualifies as one of those good match-ups. The Lakers are playing the very fastest pace in the league this season, and have something of a carousel at the point guard position while they try to figure out what their plan is defensively. Hart seems to represent more defensive security than Ennis and Clarkson, but none of these guys can hope to hang with head-of-steam Russ. I love him in a game that should feature a lot of up and down basketball.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 25.56 DK - 24.97
Harrison was relatively low owned when we played him against Detroit, and we were certainly the better for it. He got the start and played admirably, posting a 18/4/8 line that was good for 7x points per dollar. He's now got two excellent performances on these prices in his last 3 games, and the opportunity should be secure with Tyreke shelved for a while. I'd really like to key in on the assist numbers here. With 6+ dimes in 4 of his last 5 games, we're finally seeing an extended stretch where Harrison is acting more like a distributor and less like an under-qualified shooting guard. The match-up is anything but a favorable one, but this is more of a case of a price/opportunity mismatch than anything else.
FanDuel left Kemba Walker off the main slate for whatever reason, but he looks like a great value against Phoenix.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 22.2 DK - 23.18
A similar story to Harrison in terms of opportunity, but as last game showed, there will be some risk around the performance here. Unlike Harrison, Selden is very scoring dependent. When things are clicking like in the Indiana and Phoenix games he can absolutely go off on these prices, but if the game script goes against his favor he can disappear on you as well. This Toronto match-up is a tricky one to analyze, because while the Grizzlies are 11.5 point underdogs and should have a tough time scoring, they will also need someone who can shoot out there to try and keep them in the game. I'm ultimately ready to accept the risk here given the short slate and the other options available on main slates.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 26.42 DK - 26.49
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.85 DK - 31.91
If you're spooked by Selden, you could do a lot worse than just running out the Knicks shooting guard duo. Hardaway managed to make just a single shot from the field in the Milwaukee game and still almost paid these prices, putting together an excellent 7 boards, 4 assists, and 3 steals. As for Lee, you need to squint a little bit to see why he's a play here, but it mostly comes down to how much time he spends on the court. Yes, he's one of the original Dante Cunningham All-Stars (awarded to players who can play high 30s minutes and barely pay minimum prices) but the Knicks do rely on him to do more than they used to. He's paid his prices well in 4 of his last 6 games, and has shown that Hardaway's return will only dig into his performance a little bit.
Also considered: Both sides of the Batum/Booker match-up, but do you trust that Phoenix can hang in any given game? They seem like a great GPP pairing. Both are on the expensive side for their fantasy production, but if that game stays close it will likely be because of their contributions.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 53.75 DK - 54.22
Serious competition for Westbrook's "big money play" slot, and with some of the value floating around I wouldn't be surprised to see our line-up optimizer try to sneak in both. This is a very tricky match-up to evaluate for Giannis, though, for a couple of reasons. First of all, DVP stats are not especially useful for him because he's covered by whoever can try and manage it on the opposing team (as opposed to just the opposing SF, PF, PG, or whatever). He's running the point less with Bledsoe around to be sure, and drawing a steady diet of Demarre Carroll could depress his performance somewhat. Still, Brooklyn is playing a top 5 pace with a bottom 8 defensive efficiency. I think he's a big time play for any format.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.97 DK - 31.29
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 24.55 DK - 24.56
After Giannis, I think it is something of a toss-up between these cheap plays. I am very bullish on Carroll here in spite of a poor last game, because he is literally the only snowball's chance in hell that the Nets have to keep Giannis in check. Carroll's last two performances have been somewhat underwhelming to be sure, but I'd ask you to look beyond that and key in on the minutes. Carroll was paying these prices on high 20s minutes with some regularity, and it looks for all the world like his rotation is settling in at 34-35 minutes per game.
As for Prince, a quick look at his game log should let you know you are sort of playing the lottery. His role is largely game script dependent, and the Hawks are happy to jerk Prince's minutes around at a moment's notice. For how bad this team is, though, they're only 5 point dogs to an almost as bad Knicks team, leading me to believe that Prince's minutes should be more secure than usual. If you think he's a favorite to play 30+ minutes here like I do I actually think he is one of the safer plays on the slate.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.45 DK - 32.76
I'd like to play Ingram here even in a not-so-good match-up with OKC, but only if I get a full assurance that this groin injury is nothing serious. Be sure to stand by and check twitter religiously before putting him into any cash game lineups. If he is marked as 100%, Ingram will be in all of our cash game lineups thanks to his expanded role in the offense recently.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.24 DK - 32.26
Melo's minutes have been relatively stable this season, and like most players, that means he is pretty much fairly priced. He hasn't lit the world on fire at these prices necessarily, but that is largely because the Thunder have the ability to pick which of their superstars sees the lion's share of the looks on any given night. The last time the Thunder squared off against the Lakers Melo wrecked them, putting up 27 points and 36 fantasy points in just 27 minutes of play. It's no accident - the Lakers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing 3s this season (though you could count Carmelo as a 3 or a 4 of course). Nonetheless, he seems like a great option in a fast paced game.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 44.33 DK - 43.55
I feel like an abused spouse recommending Porzingis these days, making excuses when he lets me down and constantly trying to point to better times from the past. But like, there have been better times in the past! It's true that his early season insane usage is a thing of the past with Hardaway playing full minutes, but I can't believe that he's gone from pushing 45+ fantasy points a game to this 30 fantasy point a game imitation of himself. The Knicks have been working Porzingis' minutes back up slowly, but he's locked back into 35 minutes a game and has a phenomenal match-up against the Hawks terrible bigs. Atlanta has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards and the most to opposing centers, so there is nowhere for them to hide here. I am loving Porzingis in any format, and will be happy if my opponents are scared off. I miss you, baby. Come back.
Also considered: Frank Kaminsky. Killer match-up, and we know what his opportunity should look like, but the price is getting a little scary. I was also looking at Serge Ibaka here, but he's another guy whose minutes are very difficult to project. In close games he can play anywhere between 29-33 minutes, but he can lose minutes for everything from foul trouble to blowouts in either direction. In a game where Toronto is so heavily favored it might just be prudent to stay away.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.66 DK - 35.12
Center is a little bit rough today. We are basically left deciding if we want to go with a steady and unexciting performer (looking at you here Steven) or taking a risk on a big upside play elsewhere. Adams has averaged a flat 5x points per dollar over his last 4 games, and the encouraging sign is that we're seeing his average minutes crest to all time highs. He's pulled his average rebounds per game on the season up to 9, but if you zoom in on his last 11 games he's averaged nearly 11 rebounds per game. The Lakers have actually been a bit better against opposing centers than they have been in the past, but nonetheless I love locking Adams in at center and forgetting about it for cash games.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.44 DK - 34.99
High risk, high reward. It's impossible to imagine taking Randle in a worse match-up for only $1,000 less for me, but for big tournaments? Sure. We've seen his minutes fluctuate from 26 to 36 depending on the day, and if the Lakers are meant to hang here they'll need a big aggressive body to match Adams athleticism. Hint: that's not Brook Lopez. Randle was stymied in their last meeting, but he also played just 23 minutes. This one's not for the feint of heart, but I could see real upside here.
Another upside play: Enes Kanter. I could absolutely see people going there, but do you trust the minutes? A seriously great option for big tournaments though.
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View Comments
umm. whats with the fanduel pricing on toronto and portland guys? I can't be the only one that sees this. And the hornets suns game was left off the slate..
Brian I see it...you ain't paying 7800 for Mo Harkless?
I looked on DK , and MO is $3100.... I am guessing they just messed up, should work in our favor today. I bet some newbies pay $7,800 for him though lol.
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