James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
Welcome friends to a Super weekend of DFS NBA action. While I eagerly wait for my Eagles to play in the big game on Sunday, I’m passing the time by pouring over the top plays in our projection systems picks for Saturdays’ hoops action. We’ve got the Process, the Brow, the Beard and the King, and hopefully some value to make them fit. So let’s take a look at our top picks at each position, shall we?
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Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.51 DK - 29.66
There are a lot of good ways to pay up tonight, and while $10K for Steph Curry isn’t ridiculous, he has struggled to reach value in four of his last seven contests, so we’re going to look in the middle tier at the point guard where we have several good value plays. First up we have Darren Collison and the Pacers hosting the Sixers tonight. Philly is ranked 28th overall defensively at the point, and this matchup is ripe for Collison to run all over the likes of T.J. McConnell and Jerryd Bayless. Collison has been a solid daily fantasy basketball play over the past couple of weeks, paying 5X points per dollar or better in four of his last five games maxing out at 8.6X against the Cavaliers last Friday. The Sixers play the fourth fastest pace in the game at 101.9 which will force the Pacers to step things up a bit and present Collison with a couple of extra shots. They also give the ball up more than any other team in the game which means Collison, who averages nearly 2.5 steals per game through his last seven could pad his upside making him an excellent play in all formats.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.52 DK - 30.74
Sticking with the middle tier, we have an attractive play from one of my favorite games to target tonight. The Pelicans travel into Minnesota to play the Wolves which gives Jeff Teague the best matchup a point guard can ask for. New Orleans has surrendered 46.1 FP on average to opposing point guards this season, and over their last ten games that number has jumped to 51.8. This is good news for Teague who is bouncing back from a pair of outings where he shot just 1 for 16 but in the following two games has shot 62.5%. Even when the shot wasn’t there Teague was still doing his DFS owners good by dishing out plenty of assists and picking up some steals. Now that the scoring is back on track, Teague has the potential to open up a big outing. Our system is calling for Teague to hit his floor of 30, while a 40 point ceiling is not out of the question.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.13 DK - 27.42
The Clippers host the Bulls this afternoon in the Staples Center, in a game that you have to play the all day slate to gain access to it on FanDuel, while DraftKings is just ignoring it altogether. If you’re one of those adventurous types who enjoy playing the all day set, there is something to be said for targeting this game as the early line from Vegas projects a 222 total and the Bulls are a prime defense to take advantage of. At the point Chicago is ranked 19th overall defensively and Milos Teodosic, who has been locked into 27-31 minutes for the last eight games is an excellent play at the position. Since returning from a three game absence early last month, Teodesic has averaged 22.6 FP per game with 33 FP upside.This game has a combined pace of 100.7 and Teodosic should have plenty of opportunity to hit his floor at this price.
Consider Elfrid Payton, especially on DraftKings
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 55.62 DK - 59.3
Our NBA lineup optimizer is loving several big name studs tonight who project for both sky high raw point totals, and top point per dollar plays as well. First of those studs is the Rockets James Harden. Harden is having a tremendous first half of the season and will once again be a top contender in the MVP race if he can stay healthy and continue at his current pace. As we approach the break Harden leads the NBA in points per game (31.5), three pointers (176), and fantasy points per game (54.5). He put together one of the best fantasy outings we’ll see all season against Orlando on Tuesday and in the other four of his last five games he has come in at or just below 5X PPD. The Cavs are pretty tough at the two, allowing just 20FP on average over their last five games, but don’t fear the beard. Harden’s a fantastic play in a game with a 100.3 pace factor and is an excellent way to drop $11K in salary.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.35 DK - 44.88
Along with Harden, there are several good ways to drop over $10K in salary tonight, and we are going to have to make some difficult decisions when all is said and done, so if we need to save some salary at the two and can’t afford the beard, then we’ve got Victor Oladipo against a weak Philly perimeter. The Sixers are the fifth most generous defense at the two, giving up 46.4FP on average to the position. Oladipo has seen his price drop significantly in the past week thanks to some less than impressive outings but he should have little trouble against J.J. Redick and the Philly back court. If you just can’t quite make Harden happen, then Victor O. Makes for a solid alternative in cash games.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.98 DK - 31.06
There isn’t a lot to love at shooting guard after Harden and Oladipo, but there is some solid value to be had. Out of the upper tier, Evan Fournier is leading the PPD projections in the early run of our optimizer at the position, primarily due to his scoring ability. Fournier has scored 19 or more points in 4 of his last five, and 17 or more in six of his last seven games. The one game in which he fell below those thresholds, he only posted 12 against the Rockets on Tuesday, but he tweaked his ankle in the game prior, so perhaps it was bothering him more than he let on. He got back on track against the Lakers on Wednesday, scoring 19 to pair with two rebounds, four assists, and a steal. Fournier has flashed the potential for 6X upside, but not often enough to bank on it, as cash games go however, as long as he remains locked into 27-33 minutes a game Fournier is about as safe as they come.
Consider Bradley Beal in a nice matchup against Orlando.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 55.61 DK - 56.63
All hail the King! We have some decisions to make in the top tier tonight, as LeBron James and James Harden are both priced the same on FanDuel. Our NBA optimizer is projecting them equally as well. On DraftKings, the edge goes to Harden, despite his higher price tag but it’s ever so slight. While LeBron has struggled to reach value in his last couple of games, don’t let that deter you here. The Rockets have the 24th ranked defense against the small forward position and just last weekend James was only 2 boards shy of back to back triple doubles. Personally, I want to lean Harden, but the other options at SF are less appealing than the ones at the two, so I may find myself siding with the King out of necessity.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 25.83 DK - 26.05
Aaron Gordon is questionable after missing two games already with a strained hip, and if he is held back for a third straight contest, then Jonathon Simmons shoots to the top of our projections. Simmons sees his usage jump 4% with Gordon off the court and has a prime match up against the Wizards who are ranked 25th overall defensively at the position. When Orlando traveled into Washington last month, Simmons scored 23 while dishing out five assists in 32 minutes. If Gordon plays Simmons is still in consideration despite taking a slight hit, but he is a much more attractive play with Gordon ruled out.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.22 DK - 29.05
This is why I feel James is going to be hard to avoid at the three. Robert Covington has been just plain terrible at times for the past month, but he has also had flashes of brilliance as well. It’s for this reason I’ll limit Cov to tournaments only. Last night against the Heat RoCo underwhelmed for the second straight game posting a 13/2/2 line in 34 minutes. Despite the roller coaster game logs, Covington has scored an average of 24.5 FP over his last eight contests which is a sign that hopefully he is starting to figure things out, but until he starts putting up those numbers on a consistent basis I’m steering clear in cash games.
Consider P.J. Tucker if Eric Gordon remains out.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 23.61 DK - 22.89
Luc Mbah a Moute has drawn two straight starts for the Rockets with Trevor Ariza out, and will continue to do so with Ariza missing at least the remainder of Houstons’ current road trip. Eric Gordon also remains questionable for tonight’s game which adds to the appeal, as Mbah a Moute sees his usage jump 2.1% with both of those guys off the court per NBAWowy. Luc didn’t do a whole lot in his first start against the Magic despite 39 minutes on the boards, but he looked better against the Spurs his last time out. The Cavs haven’t been great defensively all season against the power forward, And over their last ten have been absolutely terrible defending against the position allowing 56.8 FP on average. Mbah a Moute is a fine cash play, and is cheap enough that if he really gets going he could easily crush value, so be sure to consider him in your tournament lineups as well.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.13 DK - 28.57
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 30.76 DK - 31.02
I was trying to choose one of these two guys to write up, but they’re really quite similar, and either one can be considered, depending on your salary needs. Taj Gibson is the more affordable play across the industry, coming in several hundred less than Markieff Morris. Both have had mixed results over their last few games, easily paying value at times while underperforming at other times. Gibson will take up with Nikola Mirotic making his debut with the Pelicans, who was an average defender at best in Chicago. Morris meanwhile will cost you a bit more, but he does see his usage increase now that the Wizards are without John Wall, and though Orlando may be ranked average against the position, the Magic are still the fourth worst overall defense in the game. Either of these guys is a fine way to go in cash games, though I’ll give the upside edge to Gibson who while priced cheaper, has flashed 40 FP upside twice in just the last few weeks.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.48 DK - 33.19
Here’s another play for the all day slate. Lauri Markkanen will miss a second straight contest on paternity leave. Paul Zipser drew the start in Markkanens’ spot on Wednesday in Portland, but it was Bobby Portis who saw the most benefit, picking up 28 minutes and posting a 8/10/2/1/1 line. If Portis can stretch 25 or more minutes per game on a consistent basis he has what it takes to post double doubles on the regular and be a prime value play in the world of NBA DFS. With Markannen absent yet again the potential is there and Portis is an excellent play to consider if you run the all day set, in all formats.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 53.23 DK - 54.66
Center’s kind of funky tonight. There isn’t a lot of value, and unfortunately, right now the top guys are in the best positions. Thompson and Cappella have to contend with each other. Gortat just isn’t the same with Wall out of commission. RoLo has to deal with the Clippers who are stingy at the five. So we find ourselves looking at Joel Embiid playing in his first back to back of his career. The Process saw just 31 minutes against the Heat last night, and finished with a double double, scoring 17 points and 11 boards. He would’ve had a much better payoff if not for the 6 turnovers. Tonight he’ll look to bounce back against Myles Turner and a Pacers team allowing the third most FP to opposing centers. My only concern with Embiid is despite his only playing 31 minutes last night, if he gets winded early in the B2B does coach Brown limit him tonight? It’s for this reason I may try to keep my exposure to Embiid restricted to tournaments, but only if I can afford this next guy.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 60.3 DK - 60.34
I had to do a double take when I saw Anthony Davis listed as a center, but with Boogie Cousins down for the year, and the addition of Nikola Mirotic to take over at the New Orleans four, here we are. What can I say about Davis that we don’t already know? His only downside is his own fragile shell. When he can stay healthy AD is one of the most explosive players in the NBA, and a daily fantasy basketball stud. He’s got a 60 FP floor, and 70-80 FP upside. The risk lies in the slightest injury and he’s down for the count. That said, the brow sees a strong matchup tonight against a Minnesota defense ranked tenth worst at the position and he has been on an absolute tear ever since the loss of Cousins. Unless some serious value opens up (and it very well could, see below) I’m going to do all I can to fit Davis into my cash lineups tonight.
Consider DeAndre Jordan if you're playing the all day set.
Hassan Whiteside left last night’s game against the Sixers after 18 minutes with an illness, and Bam Adebayo crushed in 29 minutes paying over 10X PPD. Keep an eye on this situation and if Whiteisde is ruled out then strongly consider Bam.
Thanks for reading, and good luck out there tonight. As always, post your questions below or pop into the member chat. Keep an eye out for the news and update article as we draw closer to the 7PM lock time for the main slate. Cheers!
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View Comments
NBA sheet for today. Eight games on DraftKings and nine on FanDuel :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
The Sixers are like 5th in defensive deficiency. I know it doesnt matter for fantasy puproses but in the real world of basketball the Sixers are a good defensive team. They just play at a high pace and turn the ball over so give up a lot of fantasy points. But the reason they are currently a play off team is there defense and rebounding.
Dude, I am a Sixers fan through and through. I've watched most every game this season. I know their strengths and weaknesses, and I agree that's why they currently sit where they are. I also know they have the fourth best team defensive rating in the game. When speaking of Collison and Oladipo, I was referencing their DvP from a fantasy perspective where Philly has given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing point guards on average this season, and the seventh most to opposing shooting guards. I'm not taking anything away from the Sixers, believe me, just pointing out why the system was targeting them at those positions.