Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/31/18

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Point guard

Damian Lillard FD - $9400 DK - $8900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 45.5 DK - 47.38

Welcome to NBA Wednesday! We're usually looking at one of the biggest slates of the week on Wednesday, but it's not the case here. With just 8 games on the board, our player pool is a bit more concentrated. That's not to say there isn't just as much to get into. We have a lot of weird spots and some injuries that are affecting a ton. We're going to kick it off in Portland with Damian Lillard, who'll host the Bulls in the Moda Center. The Bulls have been better against point guards since Kris Dunn went out, but are still ranked just 21st in the league. We know how dominant Lillard is and he much prefers playing at home. He's playing the best basketball of his career right now and won't be slowed down against a lackluster-at-best Chicago Bulls squad. Vegas has the game sitting at a 214 over/under with the Blazers favored by just 6, so they fully expect him to be in there for 35+ minutes in a fast-paced affair. His price is still fair on both sites under $10k and will only need to have you one of his average games. The match-up is tremendous and the

Yogi Ferrell FD - $4300 DK - $5100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 22.27 DK - 22.93

I've been targeting Ferrell for a few weeks now and while his production has been up and down, you can't argue with the opportunity. He's locked into 30+ minutes off the bench and is in the game when competitive down the stretch. He now sees the match-up we all look for when targeting PG's, the Phoenix Suns. They rank 25th against the position and play at the league's fastest PACE, so it's a perfect environment for a quick guard like Ferrell that excels in the open court. Vegas expects this game to be close and holds a much higher total than most Mavs' games. Ferrell is still underpriced on both sites and can be played in all formats. There's obviously a lot to miss out on at PG, so make sure you have a concrete plan to pay up elsewhere if Ferrell is your man of choice.

Isaiah Thomas FD - $6100 DK - $5600
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 23.56 DK - 25.42

Kevin Love was injured to start the game last night and it's going to open up a ton of usage for this Cavs squad. Love and Thomas have been fighting for 2nd fiddle behind LeBron, so this will open it up completely for Thomas. He played 32 minutes last night against the Pistons and put up 25 fantasy points in a tough match-up. He's going to be in the 40's on a nightly basis very soon and I wouldn't be surprised to see that start tonight. The Heat defense is underwhelming at best and will be focused on Lebron. Against PG's, they rank dead average at 15th in the league. Dragic is an average defender and doesn't have much help behind him with Whiteside, who's an overhyped rim protector. Thomas is still far too cheap on both sites and an elite play in every format. Lock him in for 25 with the upside for 50. Remember, this is Isaiah Thomas we're talking about. Don't be surprised when we're looking at 40-50 every game. It just takes times.

Shooting Guard

Jordan Clarkson FD - $7200 DK - $7000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.46 DK - 36.56

Lonzo Ball is still out, so you know Jordan Clarkson is going to be in play. He’s been absolutely phenomenal in Ball’s absence and has been leaned on for 30+ minutes in every close game. He’s typically more of a cash game player that will sit around 30 FP, but he flashed some upside last week with 47 and 59 FP in back to back games. His usage has gone from % to % with Lonzo, so it’s obviously making quite a huge difference. His price is still fair on both sites and he’s a guy I’m willing to plug in at SG in both cash games and tournaments. The match-up against the Magic is certainly a good one, considering they rank 27th against point guards. Clarkson is also way too big for Payton, so there’s going to be a match-up issue as well. He only needs you in the mid-30’s and it shouldn’t be much of an issue if the game stays close. The Magic are already a bad defense and are no struggling without either of their big men. Clarkson is priced up a little, but not to the point where he should be. As a side note, he’s gone 2-of-18 from behind the line the last 2 games, so give him a break. They will start falling and the upside will immediately return.

Evan Fournier FD - $6400 DK - $6500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.79 DK - 32.03

Shooting guard is always one of the weaker positions on the slate and tonight is no different. In the mid-range, Hardaway, Batum, and LaVine all make sense, but we’ll be focusing on Evan Fournier. Fournier is counted on as the top scorer on this Magic team with Vucevic out and is now missing Aaron Gordon, who’s the only real competition for shots. Fournier has been Uber-consistent of late with 25-30 in most. The huge minutes are locked in if the game is competitive and it certainly should be against the Lakers. Vegas hasn’t dropped a line yet, but expect a number around 212-215 with a spread under 5. Fournier, individually, will see KCP, Caruso, and Hart on defense. KCP is a good defender, but the Lakers rank 23rd as a team against shooting guards, so there’s nothing to worry about. It doesn’t matter how good of an individual defender you are when you have Brook Lopez and Julius Randle under the rim to help. Fournier is going to put up another 25 fantasy points and has a realistic upside for 40 if the game goes as expected. He’s fairly priced on all sites and makes sense in both formats.

Small forward

Jonathon Simmons FD - $4700 DK - $5300
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.76 DK - 27.13
Mario Hezonja FD - $4100 DK - $4800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.21 DK - 26.62

If Aaron Gordon is out once again, both of these guys have to be considered. With Simmons, he's just a consistent line of production. He's going to see the minutes and shots no matter what and you can be sure that 20-25 fantasy points will follow. With Hezonja, he's a bit more reliant on Gordon sitting. He saw 25 minutes in each of the last 2 games and put up an equal 25 FP in each. He's nowhere near as strong of a play as Simmons is for me, but he has upside. Simmons is where I'll be headed in all formats, where I can guarantee myself 30+ minutes from a legitimate scorer against the Lakers. He'll also be seeing the Lakers weaker defenders. Against small forwards, they rank 29th in basketball. Give Hezonja a yell if Gordon is out, but play Simmons in all formats at a way too cheap price tag.

T.J. Warren FD - $7100 DK - $6700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.25 DK - 35.55

Devin Booker missed last game and it resulted in T.J. Warren playing 35 minutes against the Grizzlies. He put up 35 fantasy points in a tough match-up and now sees another one against Harrison Barnes and the Mavs. Barnes is a solid defender, but the Mavs rank 20th against small forwards and don't have much of a team defense around him. It's not why we're targeting Warren, though. Assuming Booker is out, he sees a usage bump from 26% to 29%. It doesn't seem like much, but it's an extra 3 or 4 shots and 3 or 4 assist opportunities. His price is sitting right around $7k on both sites and you're looking for about 35-40 in cash games. if Booker is out, I think he gets there against a subpar Mavs defense. If Booker plays, I think you can do better at a position with LBJ at the top and some solid value below.

Power forward

Bobby Portis FD - $4500 DK - $5900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 16.67 DK - 17.03

Lauri Markkanen has been ruled out for personal reasons and Nikola Mirotic is questionable. Even if Mirotic plays, Portis is going to see extended minutes. If Mirotic is also ruled out, Portis has to see over 30. We know he's one of the more productive DFS players in the entire league when on the court, but typically sees just 15-20 minutes. If given the 30 minutes he could easily see, count on 30-40 fantasy points. He's held close to a 25% usage on the season and is currently sitting at 1.47 FP per minute. His price is still fair on both sites, though he's obviously much friendlier on FanDuel at just $4500. He's going to demolish value on both sites if Mirotic is ruled out and is still a borderline cash game play if Mirotic is ruled in. Aminu is a decent defender, but he's not big enough to cover Portis and has a horrible team defense around him. This game is expected to stay close and I can't find many reasons to stay away from Portis.

Jeff Green FD - $3700 DK - $3800
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 18.33 DK - 18.55
Jae Crowder FD - $3700 DK - $3800
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 10.27 DK - 10.41

Kevin Love is going to miss 6-8 weeks with a hand injury, so both Jeff Green and Jae Crowder are going to be in play for a while. On first glance, the NBA Lineup Builder has Jeff Green at 23 minutes and Crowder at 27. I think Crowder gets over 30, but the 23-25 is fair for Green with Channing Frye still looming nearby. Even at under 30 minutes, he has to be considered. Green has been exceptional when on the floor for the Cavs (1.31 FP per minute) and is utilized a ton from a scoring POV. As for Crowder, he's more of the guy in the corner that will benefit from LeBron and Isaiah driving. With that being said, he's a big part of this team and may be asked to step up with Love. I could easily see a situation where Crowder really steps it up over the next 2 months and becomes the utility guy the Cavs have so desperately needed. The situation is still pretty unclear minutes-wise, but we know both of these guys are going to see excess opportunity against an average Miami Heat defense. I prefer Crowder, but understand going either.

Ben Simmons FD - $9000 DK - $8800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 47.89 DK - 46.69

If you're able to pay up at power forward, Ben Simmons is a phenomenal way to go. We always want to target the Brooklyn Nets and tonight is no different with just a 6.5 spread and 211 over/under.He has been a little annoying as a superstar, putting up a lot of games in the 30's. It's ok, however, as his price is falling and he's still over 50 a bit too often for the tag. When having one of "his nights", it's extremely easy to see right off the bat. This is a match-up that seems ideal for a guy that derives his upside from getting into the heart of the defense and taking advantage. Against paint scoring, they rank dead last in basketball. Against power forwards, dead last in the league. The Brooklyn Nets are an atrocious defense in every way and are the worst down low. With RHJ and LeVert both out, it'll have to be some DeMarre Carroll or Spencer Dinwiddie (???) on him. Good luck with that Brooklyn. Without so many superstar options to pay for on this slate, I have a lot of interest in both Simmons and Embiid. We'll get to the ladder in a second, but it's hard to stay away from such dynamic players when facing the Nets.

Center

Joel Embiid FD - $10500 DK - $10400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 52.06 DK - 53.63

Embiid rested for the first time in about a month last game, so he should be fully rested and ready to go here. He has a match-up against the Nets that could simply not be better. Aside from sporting guys like Jarrett Allen and Tyler Zeller under the rim, they play at the league's 3rd fastest PACE. This allowed guys like Embiid to not only dominate, but to do it more than in most games. Embiid has been the Sixers best player this year and it's really not close. He's locked into 45 fantasy points in close games and is regularly close to 60. The Nets don't have a single body that can contend with him and it's fair to expect dominance throughout the entire game. His minutes have been over 30 game in and game out, so they should certainly be there right after being rested. Embiid is my favorite center on the slate and possibly my favorite way to pay up. I'll have a ton of exposure in all formats.

Marc Gasol FD - $7900 DK - $8300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 40.97 DK - 41.21

If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Joel Embiid at $10k+, take a look at a far more affordable Marc Gasol. He doesn’t have the same intrigue in terms of upside or excitement, but he’s one of the more consistent players in the entire league and sees a very friendly match-up with the Indy Pacers. Against centers, only the Nets and Hawks are worse. Yikes. Gasol is getting 34+ minutes in every close game and putting up 40-50 in most. He obviously goes through weird stretches and this is one, but he’s a steady big man that can be locked in for 40 FP against the Pacers. Not only is it a huge PACE-up game for the Grizzlies, but they also match-up very nicely against the Pacers. Gasol should have plenty of fun and is an elite option in the mid-$8k’s on both sites. I still prefer Embiid if you’re able to afford him, but don’t do anything crazy to get there.

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