Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Waste Management Phoenix Open

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Waste Management Phoenix Open

Welcome back to another week of daily fantasy golf. Jason Day walked away with his 11th career win this morning on the sixth playoff hole at the Farmers Insurance Open. It capped off the biggest event of the season so far as we got to see the return of Tiger Woods. He definitely made things exciting as he birdied the 36th hole on Friday afternoon to sneak in under the cut. He came away with a T23 and shot par or better in all four rounds so there is a ton to take away from this performance as he moves forward in the 2018 season.

This week the PGA Tour travels to the desert for the Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale. One of the most fun and most entertaining tournaments of the year where a record-setting 204,906 people attended the Saturday round last year and just over 655,000 for the entire tournament. The focus for most fans attending is the one-of-a-kind 16th hole that is completely enclosed with a stadium-style atmosphere where fans will cheer and boo loudly unlike any other event on tour. Just check out some of the highlights.

Before getting into the course history, current form, and stats picks for the week let's take a look at the course information, past winners, and key stats.

Course Information

TPC Scottsdale
Par 71 - 7,266 Yards

**Click the pic above or HERE to check out the course breakdown on PGATour.com**

 

Hole Composition & Approach Shot Distribution

Past Winners

• Hideki Matsuyama(-17)
• Hideki Matsuyama(-14)
• Brooks Koepka(-15)
• Kevin Stadler(-16)
• Phil Mickelson(-28)

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Ball Striking(more weight to Approach)
• Proximity from 150-175 Yards
• Par 5 Birdie or Better %
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par 4 Scoring

With fairway bunkers and water in play on quite a few of the holes, I will be looking at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee but will be weighing Strokes Gained: Approach(the other calculation in SG: BS) much higher this week as the scores will be much lower than at the Farmers. For cash games, I could also see including Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling as well. As you can see with the approach shot distribution chart above, there are a ton of approaches that will come from the 150-175 yard distance so I will be looking closely at Proximity from that distance. Then comes one of the biggest weights for my model this week, Par 5 Bridie or Better %. I looked back at the leaderboards over the past few years and what I found was a lot of the players finishing near the top of the leaderboard who picked up more than half their strokes on the three Par 5 holes. There were also a ton of eagles made by those inside the Top 10 so instead of just simple Par 5 Scoring, I will be looking at Par 5 Birdie or Better %. With an extra Par 4 hole on the Par 71 setup, Par 4 Scoring will also be weighed.

One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag COunts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.

Top Course History Targets

Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Draftkings ($11,500)
FanDuel ($12,400)

You can't talk course history here at TPC Scottsdale without leading off with Hideki. He returns as the back to back champion and finished T2 and T4 the two years before that. He comes into this year's event with some good form as well with two Top 5's(CIMB Classic, Sentry ToC) and finished T12 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open even after a third round 73. I am concerned at all about the few blips last week considering he finished with a T33 and missed cut at the Farmers prior to his wins the last two years. Statistically, as expected, he has dominated here ranking 1st in DK points, SG: Total, SG: T2G, SG: BS, SG: APP and 2nd in SG: OTT. Fade at your own risk.

Zach Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#48)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($10,600)

Early in his career, ZJ was alright here with a T24, MC, WD, T12, T24 from 2005-2010(didn't play '08) but has been very consistent here at TPC Scottsdale lately with a Top 15 finish in each of the last three years and ranks among the best in multiple categories in that time.

He also comes in with some excellent form to start the year having made all five cuts with no finish worse than a T23 with two Top 10's. That is music to my ears for cash games over on DraftKings where he comes in under $8K this week. He should be limited to GPP only on FanDuel where he is in the mid $10K range.

Top Current Form Targets

Cameron Smith
World Golf Ranking (#58)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,200)

Consistency plus DraftKings value is brought me back to Cameron Smith this week. After picking up just six Top 25's all of his rookie season, he has already posted five in his first five events to start the 2017-18 season including two Top 10 finishes and ranks 7th in the field in DraftKings scoring over his last 24 rounds. Statistically, he gets a knock as he ranks outside the Top 60 on my sheet in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Approach but does rank 9th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and he also ranks 21st and 25th in Par 4 and 5 scoring respectively. This is his trip around TPC Scottsdale but at a price in the mid $7K range on DraftKings, he will be a core piece to my cash games lineups and I will also be using him in GPP's as well as he could be under-owned in a stacked price range.

Brendan Steele
World Golf Ranking (#51)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($9,600)

Steele also fits the form model this week as he ranks 7th in average finish and 6th in average DraftKings scoring over his last five tournaments. In that time, he has finished no worse than 29th and picked up a win at the Safeway Open as he defended his title back in October. The wind got the best of him in the final round at last weeks Farmers Insurance Open as he shot 76 but that shouldn't be an issue this week with the forecast calling for no more than a 6 mph wind throughout the week. He also returns to TPC Scottsdale where he has had a lot of success with finishes of T6, T6, T26, T17, T16 over the past five years. He also fits the stats model this week ranking 16th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Par 5 BoB%, and 19th in overall BoB%. He is a safe play in all formats.

 

Who the Stats Like

Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Draftkings ($11,400)
FanDuel ($12,500)

No player fits the stats model or overall model this week better than Jordan Spieth. He is the only player on my sheet to rank Top 5 in all four categories and it starts with the stats. He is 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking(also see rolling report below), 2nd in Proximity from 175-200 yards, 6th in Par 5 BoB%, 3rd in overall BoB%, and 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. He has only played here twice but both times comes away with a Top 10 finish(T9-2017, T7-2015). He is coming off another successful season in 2017 where he won three times including another major and while he is still looking for his first win this season, has played well with a 9th at the Tourny of Champions and T18 at the Sony Open(all four rounds under 70). With all the value in the $7K range on DraftKings, I think we can consider Spieth in all formats this week.

J.J. Spaun
World Golf Ranking (#117)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($8,800)

For my final play in the stats section, I wanted to look closely at Fantasy National Golf Club and find a player who has been trending when looking at Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and also provides some value as I will be loading up on Spieth and Matsuyama in the upper tier. Enter J.J. Spaun who, looking at the last 24 rounds overall, ranks 4th in this field when looking at Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. I mentioned in the key stats write up that I was weighing Approach higher than Off the Tee and this is where he has excelled ranking 2nd and has gained strokes vs. the field in eight straight and 10 of his last 12 events. To top it off, Spaun played TPC Scottsdale for the first time last year and tied for 4th.

 

Who is being Mentioned on FanShareSports(DraftKings)

$10K Range

As expected, Hideki is very likely going to be the highest owned player this week as he returns with incredible course history and ball striking. Rickie Fowler hasn't been as good in his trips here but does come back with back to back Top 5 finishes and despite letting people down(myself included) last week, is getting a ton of attention and will also be highly owned. Third on the list is Jordan Spieth who has played here twice and finished Top 10 both times. Spieth's issues over his last three tournaments have been the putting as he has lost strokes to the field in each tournament(Sony, ToC, Tour Champ). I think he figures out this week and of the three, is my favorite play in this tier.

I honestly thought Rahm would be higher on this list but his fall down the leaderboard on Sunday at the Farmers is likely the reason. If you think he will be in the 15% range in GPP's, jump on board as he has shown he can score a ton of DraftKings points in hurry and has also done well here in his two trips. He is also 4th in DraftKings scoring over his last 24 rounds of golf(via Fantasy National Golf Club). The player I will be targeting at the lowest projected ownership in the tier is 2017 Player of the Year, Justin Thomas. There is a very high probability he is the lowest owned player in this tier(I think sub 15%) and it makes sense as he has missed the cut in back to back years at TPC Scottsdale after T17 in his first trip. He didn't exceed expectations at the Sony Open with a T14 but did shoot all four rounds under 70 and finished 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. The best part is that you don't need a ton of exposure to have more than the field and we know he is more than capable of crushing a field.

 

$8K-$9K Range

Daniel Berger and Webb Simpson sit atop the $8K/$9K range in start recommendations and it makes sense as both have two Top 10 finishes here in their last three trips.  Both players also have some strong form coming in as Webb finished T36 at the CareerBuilder and T4 at the Sony Open and has shot in the 60's in six of his last eight rounds. Berger has made the cut in all four official tournaments this season and comes in off a T14 at the Sony where he shot all four rounds in the 60's with a Sunday 64. With my early exposure set on Spieth/Thomas in the $9K+ range, I will likely be fading Berger just due to not being able to afford to roster enough to have more exposure than the field. Harris English has a very reasonable price considering he is coming off a T8 at the Farmers and a T11 at the CareerBuilder challenge. While the course history is not consistent, he does have Top 10 finishes in two of his last five years here at TPC Scottsdale. There is also a falloff after Berger and Webb meaning English likely won't see more than 15% ownership share.

I talked about Ryan Moore in my video and he is my GPP pivot in this range. As of Wednesday afternoon, he has just six tags(3 for start) and is likely going to be around 5% owned. He struggled to score last year(-2) finishing with a T61 but has some excellent course history with Top 20's in the four previous years with a T6 and T4 in 2014 and 2013. He will be making his first appearance in 2018 but it doesn't concern me as he finished T11 in 2016 in his first new year appearance. Again, with lower ownership, you are not going to need much exposure to be overweight on the field.

 

$6K-$7K Range

Both Zach Johnson and Kevin Chappell will be 15%+ in GPP's this week at $7,700 on DraftKings. I am leaning Zach Johnson as he comes back to TPC Scottsdale with excellent course history with Top 15 finishes in three straight years and has been very consistent so far this year. At least for cash games, I am not worried about the Spaun chalk as he hits on almost all areas I am targeting this week. He finished 4th last year in his rookie season,  has decent form this year making six of eight cuts with a runner-up and four Top 25 finishes and also has nice stats ranks(32nd in SG: BS, 22nd in Prox from 150-175, Top 40 in Par 4 scoring and Par 5 BoB%, 32nd in Bog Avoid).

This is an excellent range to make some pivots for GPP's as it will be very chalky and I will be starting with Adam Hadwin. He will likely be in the 5% range this week and comes back to TPC Scottsdale with Top 20 finishes in back to back years. He has also been consistent this season going 6/6 in cuts made(outlier being ToC where he finished last) including a T3 at the CareerBuilder Challenge. Another player I will have some exposure to in this range is William McGirt. He is also going to be around 5% owned this week with just nine tags so far(7 for start) and comes back with some very consistent course history having finished 32nd or better in five straight years. The form is also there as he has made all four cuts this season including two Top 10's at the Shriners and RSM Classic in the fall.

Also Consider: Brain Gay, Robert Garrigus, Martin Laird

 

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Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.