Boston Celtics' Kyrie Irving plays against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the first quarter of an NBA basketball in Boston, Friday, Jan. 5, 2018. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 43.95 DK - 45.09
Welcome to NBA Monday! After some pretty interesting weekend slates without any football, we open up the week with a very solid 6-gamer. We don't have a full slate on our hands by any means, but there is a ton of info to decipher through. We kick things off with Kyrie Irving, who's coming off quite the impressive stretch of games. He's been consistent all year, but has stepped in over 40 fantasy points in each of the last 4 games. He got up to 60 in one, which is an upside we're not used to seeing with him in Boston. He may be finding his scoring groove and we could be looking at 25+ real-life points on a nightly basis for the recent future. Tonight, he sees a match-up against the Nuggets that couldn't be better. On the season, they rank 27th against point guards. Jamal Murray is a bad defender, but so is Nikola Jokic, who doesn't protect the rim much at all. Kyrie is sitting with a tag of $9k, which is fine. He needs you in the low 40's and should be there if this game stays close. Irving is the only real expensive PG on the board and deserves a whole lot of attention in all formats.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 21.5 DK - 22.27
We're assuming J.J. Barea is once again out, so make sure that is the case. If Barea plays, Ferrell could very easily see just 25 minutes and be a negligible play at best. As of now, he's locked into 30+ and one of the top value plays on the entire slate. He typically sees close to 35 minutes with Harris and Barea out, which would put him in a spot to hit value by halftime. Ferrell is always producing when on the floor and especially when he's allowed to get in a groove for more than 5 or 6 backup minutes. He's always been a productive PG that can both score and assist with high efficiency. The Mavs just struck gold with Dennis Smith Jr., who you simply can't put on the bench. Ferrell is one of the better young PG's in the league and will eventually have his own starting role. He matches up with a Heat team tonight that isn't too scary. Aside from matching the Mavs with a slow PACE, they're an average defense at best, ranking 14th against PG. Ferrell is extremely safe if given opportunity and this price is just ludicrous for 30+ minutes.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 21.93 DK - 21.32
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 19.71 DK - 20.31
First things first, make sure Tyreke Evans is out. He's missed each of the last 2 games and it's allowed both of these guys to be in play. They will still get minutes if Evans plays, but not nearly as many and you just don't know which one will get the bulk. We finally saw Mario Chalmers flash his upside last game with 42 fantasy points in 32 minutes. It's what he was doing 3-4 times a week with Conley injured last year. You then have Andrew Harrison, who's looked at more of a long-term option, though clearly not as talented just yet as Chalmers. This would be a spot you can ignore, but the match-up is too strong. We know the Suns play faster than anyone in basketball and it's a big factor as to why they rank 23rd against point guards. I do prefer Chalmers as I think he's a lot better of a DFS player, but Harrison is perfectly fine in cash games. Again, make sure Tyreke Evans is ruled out before you let these guys go. He's currently questionable and ould very well return, squashing the crazy value both of these guys currently hold with 25+ minutes.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 31.38 DK - 31.95
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.62 DK - 25.86
The top tier of shooting guard is pretty interesting tonight. You have Victor Oladipo and Tyreke Evans, but neither are in perfect spots. Oladipo is great in tournaments, but Batum is finally locking down the SG position like we know he can. Evans has a phenomenal match-up against the Suns, but is questionable with an illness. I couldn't blame you for playing either, but we're going to focus on a duo in Denver with a lot more certainty. Denver is actually favored here by 1 in this game with a 205 over/under, so Vegas expects it to be a close one. Marcus Smart has already been ruled out for a couple weeks, so the Celtics are stuck at SG. They will try to play big and put Brown at the 2, but it creates some mismatches at the 4. Rozier and Larkin will also see some time, but are undersized and certainly don't work well in this match-up. Both Gary Harris and Will Barton are big SG's that play physical and put points on the board. Harris, who's always a bit safer, is locked into 30 FP here. He gets to 45 all the time and will be there if he sees the friendlier of 2 defensive match-ups. Will Barton is reliant on his jumper, but it's usually on. He's cheaper than Harris and still has that 45-50 FP upside in a close game. The Celtics defense is not the same without Marcus Smart, so you can toss out the DVP numbers. Both of these guys can be played in all formats.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.27 DK - 28.74
Shooting guard has a lot of interesting options, but it's definitely one of the weaker positions on the slate. There isn't much to get excited about in the mid-range and it's why we're on Nicolas Batum. The NBA lineup optimizer loves him at this price and I have to agree. He's playing a lot like the Nic Batum we knew in Portland, who was putting up 40 FP on a nightly basis. He's always been a productive player when on the floor that does a good job of spreading himself around. In fact, he posted a 5x5 when in Portland. If you don't know, that's 5 points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. It's not an easy thing to do for anyone, but especially a guard. The point is that he's extremely versatile and able to put up FP in so many different ways. He's definitely fallen off to a degree in Charlotte, but has been picking himself up as of late. With 20+ in 8 of the last 9 and 30+ in 3 of those, he may be getting back to the player he's expected to be. The match-up with an undersized Oladipo is a solid one and he should have no problem scoring. He'll also be out there for a guaranteed 35+ as he'll be assigned to Oladipo on defense. Batum is never exciting to roster, but he's solid in all formats as a guy that most definitely won't burn you.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 52.4 DK - 51.35
When it comes to the world of daily fantasy basketball, 3 or 4 names stand above the rest. Giannis Antetokounmpo is definitely one of them. He’s the only real superstar on this slate and can be afforded with ease(especially on FD). He’s been playing as good as ever and came with another 50 burger after dicing up Brooklyn for 70. He’s been over 50 for 4 straight after his struggles and it’s why you should never put a “never again” tag on anyone. Especially a superstar with a fluctuating price tag. He’s in line for another 50+ fantasy points tonight and always has a ceiling for so much more. This match-up with the 76ers is a fine one. Ben Simmons and Robert Covington are decent defenders, but we know it’s all about PACE and a close game when it comes to Giannis. Philly plays fast and Vegas certainly thinks it stays close. If you can make it happen, Giannis is the clear top play on this slate.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 38.75 DK - 38.35
With Giannis in such a solid spot, you can’t think a recently injured Jimmy Butler is going to be very popular. For one, Thibodeau doesn’t care. He played 35 minutes in his first game back and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get back over 38. He looked perfectly healthy when on the floor and didn’t miss a step on his drive. He sees a match-up against Bazemore and Prince, who have the Hawks sitting as the 25th ranked team in the league against small forwards. Butler is in a top 5 spot tonight and will be targeted like he’s in the opposite. I’ll make sure I have plenty of exposure in both cash games and tournaments, where it’s very possible on this slate. It’s also not impossible to play both of the above guys and have a pretty normal lineup. Just don’t ignore Jimmy Butler for the sole fact of Giannis Antetokounmpo being more exciting.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 25.17 DK - 25.61
If neither of those guys floats your boat or you just need a filler, Jaylen Brown is a great way to go. He's simply not exciting to roster and will never win you a tournament, but he's uber-consistent and will also never be the reason you lose a cash game. He regularly sits between 22 and 28 fantasy points, occasionally giving or taking 5. His price has stuck around $5500 for a while now and is there on both sites, needing you 25 in cash games. He's guaranteed 34+ minutes with Marcus Smart out as they will expect him to cover Harris and Barton, who play most of their minutes at SG. He'll then also get his normal SF minutes, so I wouldn't be surprised to see close to 40. Especially if Terry Rozier ends up sitting and the Celtics have nobody outside of Semi Ojeleye with some size. Brown is always a great option in cash games and you have to like the match-up against an extremely underwhelming Nuggets defense. I won't go looking for Brown tonight, but he's a great filler for the price.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 42.5 DK - 41.95
To start, this is the weakest position on the slate. We still have some decent options that should hit value, but nobody really stands out. If you’re able to pay up, Ben Simmons is in a great spot. He’s always a very weird guy to project as you never really know where he’s going to match-up on the court, but we’ve seen this game play out recently. He stuck with Giannis for most of the game and put up 16-8-9 in just 30 minutes. It’s certainly a stat like that makes sense against a team that struggles rebounding and in the paint in general. Assuming this game stays close, we’re looking at another 5-8 minutes out of Simmons and a bit more production. I’m always hesitant to target a superstar against the Bucks defense, but Simmons is a guy that can put up 50 fantasy points in a low-scoring affair. When you add in an abnormally high O/U for a Bucks game, you have a recipe for success out of Simmons. At a weak position, I’ll be trying my best to get here in both formats.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.42 DK - 29.75
If you've been playing DFS NBA this season, you hopefully play a lot of Taj Gibson. Certainly if you're a cash game player. He's been an elite value option all season long and the price just won't rise. He will occasionally fall to 20 (oh no!), but typically sits between 30 and 40 fantasy points. Tom Thibodeau treats him like an agile youngster and looks to give him 35+ minutes when the game is close. If not, expect 30-32. This game currently holds the highest O/U on the slate at 215 and holds just a 5.5 point spread in the T-Wolves favor. Gibson is going to be covered by John Collins and Ersan Ilyasova, who are nobodies on defense. The Hawks rank 13th against PF's on the season, but 28th over the last 20 games. That's also when Dewayne Dedmon came back, so it may be worth trusting a bit more over the season numbers. Gibson is locked into 20 fantasy points with a high likelihood of 25-35. At PF in the mid-$5k's, I'll take it every single day.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 46.8 DK - 48.38
I would say this one is pretty easy. Who's the worst team in the NBA against Centers? The Atlanta Hawks. Oh, Dewayne Dedmon was out for most of the year and they took a big hit with him gone. Nope. They ranked dead last when he got injured and are sitting dead last in the last 10 games. Dewayne Dedmon is certainly no solution. He's not the worst rebounder, but plays no defense and is terrified to leave the paint. Towns is one of the more athletic big men in the league and will have to see someone else after just a few minutes. My guess is Muscala or Ilyasova, who the Hawks are comfortable with and have a bit more of a chance on defense. Towns will still dominate this match-up and should be in the 40's or 50's if it stays close. His price is under $10k on both sites and makes sense in all formats if you have the funds. This is an optimal match-up and we know 35+ minutes are a lock if the game is remotely close. He's safe as can be with as much upside as anyone at the position.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.17 DK - 36.26
If you're not looking to pay up at Center, I get it. I'm probably going to end up in the same boat. Here we have Al Horford in the low-$7k's in a terrific match-up. He's playing the best basketball of his career and meshing with Kyrie Irving like we haven't seen before. They'll also be without Marcus Smart, who Horford does battle with for shots. He's a safe bet for 13+ shots tonight and could get well beyond that if hot. He's not reliant on his scoring, however, as one of the better passing big men in the league. He obviously still needs to score to some degree, but can go for 50 fantasy points with 15 points. He can also go for 60 with 25 points. His price is very fair on both sites and will need you in the low 40's to make you happy. I do prefer Towns if you have the funds, but Horford is safe and has plenty of upside at the price. This is a game we've been targeting a lot and this is a good position to get exposure You can go with Jokic too, but the match-up just isn't as good.
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NBA sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing