Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Welcome back to another exciting season of daily fantasy NASCAR. We are now just 20 days from the 60th running of the Daytona 500 so I wanted to put together a season preview series looking at each team and driver and their average fantasy production on each track type from 2017 and their outlook going into the 2018 season. If you are new to fantasy NASCAR, especially on DraftKings, be sure to check out my strategy article coming out soon covering some basic strategy for cash games and GPP formats.
It was a year of change for the Stewart-Haas Racing team as they switched manufacturers and transitioned from Chevrolet to Ford. While many(including myself) believed it would take some time to make the necessary adjustments, they surprised us all in the first race of the season as Kurt Busch won his first Daytona 500. The team also welcomed veteran driver, Clint Bowyer, on board as he took over for the retired and future Hall of Famer, Tony Stewart. The 2017 season also ended up being the final one for Danica Patrick in the #10 car. Aric Almirola will replace her after spending the previous six season in the #43 for Richard Petty Motorsports. Kurt Busch's win at Daytona and Kevin Harvick's win at Sonoma propelled the two drivers into the playoffs as the only two on the team as Clint Bowyer finished 18th and Danica Patrick 28th in the regular season standings. Busch was eliminated in the first round after finishing no better than 19th in the first three races of the playoffs but Harvick made it all the way to the final four finishing third behind Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch. Let' snow take a look at each driver and their fantasy performance last season.
It was a slow start to the season for Harvick who picked up just two Top 10 finishes in his first six races but finished the regular season with 15 Top 10's in his final 20 races including a win at Sonoma to earn him a berth in the Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs. He started the playoffs with a 3rd place finish at Chicagoland which proved to be enough to get him through the first round despite finishing 36th and 17th at New Hampshire and Dover. He then went on to finish Top 10 in five of the next six races including a win at Texas to move on to the final four but ended up coming up a couple positions shy at the finale in Homestead. Overall, it was a successful season for Harvick who wiped two more tracks off his winless list and now has just two remaining with Pocono and Kentucky. Let's take a look at how he performed at each track type from a fantasy perspective.
Harvick has been dominant on the mile and a half tracks through his career with 12 wins, 106 Top 10's, and over 4,000 laps led in 194 races. Even with the manufacturer change in 2017, Harvick was still a dominant force with a Top 10 in 11 of the 12 races including six Top 5 finishes for an 8.3 average finish(8.8 in 2016). He also improved his average start position in 2017(4.9) which, overall, hurt us a bit from a fantasy perspective as he finished with negative place differential points in seven of the 12 races. His dominator potential definitely made up for the place differential, however, as he led laps in nine of the races for a total of 729 on the season(640 in 2016). Add this all up and he finished second behind Martin Truex Jr. in average DraftKings points per race(63.4). Considering he and the entire team should see improvements in their second year with Ford, the sky is the limit for the #4 team.
Despite having just one win in 51 career races on 2.5-mile tracks, Harvick has posted an 11.9 average finish, best of any track type. I mentioned earlier that Pocono was one of the two remaining tracks where he hadn't recorded a win and he came so close in 2017 with two runner-up finishes and finished sixth at Indianapolis. Despite leading no laps and having just a +10 place differential in those three races, Harvick finished with the third-best average DraftKings points per race behind Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski.
Harvick grabbed his first career victory at Sonoma in June but still finished second in DraftKings scoring as Brad Keselowski, who finished 3rd, picked up 20 place differential to just edge him out. Things didn't go as well at Watkins Glen in 2017 as he started 20th and finished 17th for just 30.5 DK points leaving him with the 6th best average between the two races.
He showed some consistency on the short tracks in 2017 with Top 10 finishes in four of the six races but with just 25 laps led and a +17 place differential overall he finished with the 8th most average DraftKings points per race.
After a two year stretch where Harvick led 2,183 lap son one-mile intermediate tracks, he has struggled leading just eight total laps in his last 10 races including none in 2017. He did finish with four Top 10's in six races last year but qualified well overall which left him with just one race with double-digit place differential and a -4 overall. All things considered, he finished with the ninth-best DraftKings points per game average.
After finishing inside the Top 5 in seven of his last eight races at 2.5-mile tracks, Harvick struggled in 2017 with finishes of 13th at Fontana and 14th and 13th at Michigan. He led zero laps and posted a -19 place differential ranking him 21st on the track when looking at average DraftKings points per race.
Restrictor plate tracks have been the worst of Harvick's career where he owns a 16.1 average finish and it was even worse in 2017 as he recorded finishes of 22nd and 33rd at Daytona and 23rd and 20th at Talladega. Best to avoid him at the plate tracks unless you are getting elite place differential value.
2018 Outlook: Considering the jump to Ford in 2017, Harvick had a very successful season making it all the way to the final four. From a fantasy perspective, he was also a very consistent option finishing fourth in DraftKings points per race overall. With a full season and another offseason under their belt with Ford, I see Harvick besting his 2017 season with at least three wins and like I mentioned in the HMS preview, I think he battles deep into the playoffs with Chase Elliott for the final spot at Homestead.
It was an incredible start to the 2017 season for Busch as he won the biggest and most prestigious race the sport has to offer, the Daytona 500. How big was that win? Just look at the reaction from crew chief Tony Gibson. Even with all the media appearances following the win, Kurt showed up at Atlanta and grabbed a Top 10 but that was the end of the momentum as he followed it up with finishes outside the top 20 in five of their next six races. Consistency is not a word we used with the #41 team last season as they finished with just six Top 5's and had more finishes of 20th or worse(17) than Top 10's(15). The Daytona 500 win got him into the Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs but finishes of 19th, 37th, and 20th saw him eliminated in the Round of 16. From a fantasy perspective, Kurt was almost unplayable throughout the year and finished 29th overall in DraftKings points per race. Let's break down his performance on each track type.
The place Kurt and the #41 team were consistent in 2017 was the road courses and despite not picking up a win, finished third in average DK points thanks to a 6th at Sonoma and 7th at Watkins Glen. It came as no surprise as Kurt has a win, 10 Top 5's and 17 Top 10 finishes on road course with a 15.4 career average finish, his best at any track type.
Not only did Busch win his first Daytona 500 but it was also his first career win on a restrictor plate track in 67 tries. He followed up that win with a 6th place finish at Talladega but couldn't replicate that success in the final two races where he finished 28th and 25th. He averaged 53.4 DK points per race in the first two races but just 3.1 over the final two leaving him 19th overall on the season.
Kurt had six Top 10's on the mile and a half tracks in 2017 but with four finishes outside the Top 20, he took a step back with an average finish of 14.9(11.3 in 2016). With an average starting position of 10.8, he also hurt us from a fantasy perspective with negative place differential points in seven of the 12 races while picking up double-digit points just once. Consistency on these tracks will most definitely be a target area of improvement for the #41 team in 2018.
Looking at average finish, Auto Club Speedway has been Kurt Busch's best track throughout his career(12.8) but he didn't fare so well last season finishing 24th. On the opposite end of career average finishes, Michigan has been one of his worst tracks(19.5) but he fared much better than that in 2017 with finishes of 12th(35 DK points) and 11th(37.5 DK points).
He has been very consistent at Pocono over his career with three wins and 19 Top 10's in 33 races and it continued in 2017 with a 4th and 13th place finish. Unfortunately, Indianapolis has not been too kind to Kurt where he has just five Top 10's in 17 races and he struggled once again last season with a 29th place finish after qualifying 12th.
Despite having nine career wins on short tracks, the consistency has never been there with a 17.4 average finish. He kept that trend alive in 2017 with a 37th at Martinsville and 25th at Bristol followed by three straight Top 10's at Richmond, Bristol, and again at Richmond before another disappointing finish at Martinsville in the playoffs(22nd).
Outside of a Top 10 at the first New Hampshire race, his season on the one-mile tracks was a disaster, to put it bluntly. He finished 20th or worse at five of the six races and for fantasy, ended up with a -97 place differential overall. Whoa!
2018 Outlook: The #41 team will have a new crew chief in 2017 as Billy Scott(former chief for the #10 with Danica Patrick) will take over for Tony Gibson who is moving into an unnamed role(at this time) within the organization. Hopefully, the new pairing will help Kurt and the team find more consistency in 2018 as it plagued them all 2017 season. I do feel Kurt picks up at least one win this season and makes it back to the playoffs but like last season, I don't think he makes out of the Round of 16.
To say the Clint Bowyer's journey in NASCAR has been a roller coaster would be a huge understatement. He joined the Stewart-Haas Racing team in 2017, taking over for Tony Stewart, and it marked his third team in three years and fourth of his career(Richard Childress Racing, Michael Waltrip Racing, HScott Motorsports, SHR). The good news was that 2017 was his best year over the past four as he tallied six Top 5's, 13 Top 10', and a 15.5 average finish. The bad news was that the winless streak keeps climbing as he hasn't entered Victory Lane since Charlotte in October of 2012. From a fantasy perspective, he made a very serviceable GPP play last season as his salary was consistently in the mid $8K range and his ownership was consistently in the 10% range while he finished 19th in average DraftKings points per race overall.
When it comes to road courses, Bowyer should always be on your radar as he holds a 12.5 career average finish with nine Top 5's and 14 Top 10's in 24 races. Two of those Top 5's came last year as he was runner-up at Sonoma and 5th at Watkins Glen while gained 19 place differential points between the two races. Even without a win, he led all drivers in average DraftKings points per race.
Outside of a 31st place in the first Dover race, Bowyer had an average finish of 9th on the one-mile tracks with three Top 10's and no finish worse than 13th. He also gained positive place differential in four of those races and double-digit place differential twice. He finished 10th in DK points per race on the one-mile layouts.
From a pure racing standpoint, Bowyer was consistent on the short tracks with two Top 10's at Martinsville, one at Bristol and finished inside the Top 20 in five of the six races. The big issue for fantasy owners was that he qualified inside the Top 10 in five of those races and ended up losing place differential points in half the races and ended up -18 overall.
Bowyer got loose and took a hard lick at Indianapolis leaving him with a 30th place finish and 2.5 Draftkings points. He fared much better at Pocono with a 17th(30 DK points) in the first race and 6th(41.8 DK points) in the second race. Overall, he finished 21st in average fantasy points per race.
While Bowyer has never picked up a win at Auto Club Speedway, he has been consistent and picked up his eighth Top 10 and now has a 13.7 career average finish. Michigan, on the other hand, has been one of his worst tracks and with finishes of 26th and 23rd he now owns a 17.7 career average finish with less than a 50% Top 10 rate(11 in 24 races).
He was right on par with his 17.6 career average finish on the mile and half tracks in 2017 with a two Top 10's and a 17.9 average finish. What hurt us the most from a fantasy perspective was the improvement in qualifying moving to better equipment(14.4 average finish) which led to losing place differential points in half of the races and losing double-digit place differential points four times. He did provide excellent GPP value at Atlanta and the first Kansas race with 49 and 56.8 DK points respectively thanks to posting double-digit place differential points in both with finishes of 11th and 9th.
The highlight of Bowyer's plate track season was at Daytona in July where he came oh so close to that first win with Stewart-Haas Racing. Outside of that race, it was disappointing with finishes of 32nd at the Daytona 500 and 14th and 35th at the Talladega races.
2018 Outlook: In his second full season with Stewart-Haas Racing, I can see a big improvement across the board and maybe even a streak-ending win. Even if he doesn't grab that win, he should be consistent enough to sneak his way into the playoffs on points considering he was only two spots away last season. For fantasy purposes, as long as his salary remains in the mid $8K range and he continues to qualify well he will be a nothing more than a GPP pivot play most weeks.
In his final season with Richard Petty Motorsports, Almirola turned out to be a very viable fantasy asset. He averaged just a $6,300 salary on DraftKings and while he only picked up three Top 5's and six Top 10 finishes, he picked up positive place differential points in 17 of his 29 races with double-digit place differential points in 10 of them. After a dispute between sponsor Smithfield Foods and owner Richard Petty, the #43's main sponsor for the last six seasons will move on to Stewart-Haas Racing taking Almirola with them. He will jump into the #10 car that was previously occupied by Danica Patrick. Let's take a look back at how he performed on each track type in 2017.
The #43 team's plate track setup was on point in 2017 as Almirola led all drivers with an average of 57.3 DK points per race. He missed the July Daytona race with an injury after a hard crash in May but finished Top 5 at the Daytona 500 and in both Talladega races. On top of that, he gained nine, 18, and 21 place differential points in those races. He steps into arguably much better equipment with SHR and will likely still come very cheap and should be at the top of your value list in all four plate races.
Almirola was also one of the top value plays at the two-mile tracks as he finished 19th at Fontana(started 31st) and 12th at Michigan(started 24th). Qualifying was the main factor for the value as he gained double-digit place differential in both races. This will be something to watch in 2018 as he may not present the same value with better equipment and possible better qualifying positions.
With his injury in last season, he only got in one road course race as he finished 21st at Watkins Glen after starting 29th.
Phoenix International Raceway(now ISM Raceway) has been one of Almirola's best tracks in his career(17.0 average finish) and it showed in 2017 as he finished 17th(38 DK points) and 9th(48.5 DK points). On the flip side, New Hampshire has not been as kind to Almirola(two Top 10's in 15 races) and in 2017 he finished 24th(17.5 DK points) and 26th(23.0 DK points). Dover wasn't too kind to him in 2017 either as he finished 25th in the October race(missed first race due to injury) after starting 14th and tallied just 11 DK points.
He was right on par with his career average finish(21.5) this past season as he finished with one Top 10 and six Top 20 finishes(20.7 average finish). He missed two of the races as he was injured at Kansas in a hard crash but returned to the track in October and grabbed a 9th place finish.
He grabbed his 9th career Top 10 on a short track in the first Richmond race and with a +16 place differential, finished with 52.5 DraftKings points which was 7th best that day. From a racing standpoint, he was consistent with three other Top 20 finishes on short tracks but good qualifying hampered his fantasy success.
Almirola posted a career-best finish at Indianapolis(13th) and also picked up 13 place differential points which had him 7th in DK points that day. Unfortunately, his struggles at Pocono continued in 2017 as he was involved in a crash on lap one leaving him with a 38th place finish.
2018 Outlook: Taking the jump to a bigger team with arguably much better equipment, I fully expect to see Almirola find more consistency in 2018. The only issue with his fantasy value is, with that better equipment, he could end up also qualifying more consistently inside the Top 20 which limits his overall value. While I don't expect to see a win from the #10 team, I do see Almirola setting a career-high in Top 10 finishes.
Stay tuned as the Chip Ganassi Racing 2017 review and 2018 outlook article will be out within the next week. If you would like to start researching for the 2018 season, grab a copy of my race by race trends sheet below(click on the pic) showing drives salaries and DraftKings for every race last year as well as average points per track type. Cheers!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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