Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/28/18

The first Sunday of many without the NFL to muddy our NBA waters. We have two smaller slates going today, but there's actually plenty of value in each. Between Boogie's season ending injury, at least four bad defenses, and plenty of star power - this is a DFS NBA slate you're going to want to play. Let's pick 'em, boys.

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Point guard

Chris Paul FD - $9600 DK - $9600
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 46.48 DK - 46.78
The early slate has a ton of value on it, but I'm not going to look a heck of a lot further than stacking some premier rockets in a match-up with a Phoenix team that plays the league's 4th fastest pace and the 3rd worst defensive efficiency. Paul is one of the most calculating point guards in the game, and Phoenix's glaring defensive issues should lead to piles of assists for him. Paul's last 5 games paint a mixed past, but this is where it's crucial to take match-ups into account. His two bad games were in two incredibly slow match-ups with Dallas and Miami, who are currently tied for the 3rd slowest pace in the league. I love Paul in all formats.

Kyle Lowry FD - $7700 DK - $7800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.18 DK - 39.08
The late slate version of Chris Paul? Lowry gets the Lakers, who play the league's fastest pace, albeit with better defensively efficiency. People aren't going to be happy to see Lowry in this article given how he's been performing recently, and I totally get it. He's been an embarrassment to the game in his last two contests - you'd need to add his fantasy point totals together to get a respectable performance. But context really matters here. Lowry shot a combined 5 for 24 from the field in those games, which not only crushed his fantasy totals, it likely just deterred him from taking more shots. In a game that should feature more possessions in transition, I'm expecting a bounce back in a big way. Shooting percentage tends to normalize over time, and barring any injury, Lowry should get back to his true form here.

Other guys to consider on each slate: Eric Bledsoe for the early slate, and Russell Westbrook late - though it might be tough to afford him.

Shooting Guard

Jrue Holiday FD - $7700 DK - $7500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.83 DK - 39.05
The easy reason to play all the New Orleans guys today is Cousins' devastating season ending injury. Taking high 30s minutes and 18-20 shots a game out of the lineup is going to cause a huge opportunity vacuum, and since none of the Pelicans' prices have corrected yet, they are all dramatically on sale here. Throw in a match-up with a Clippers team that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season (thanks Lou-Will!) and you have an absolute no-brainer for the early slate.

J.R. Smith FD - $3500 DK - $3800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 19.34 DK - 19.71
Speaking of guys whose prices haven't corrected to current opportunity, Smith went out there and played 37 minutes against Indiana, putting up 34 fantasy points in the process. With everything in turmoil in Cleveland, it stands to reason that they'll likely try to stick with what's working. And for these prices? The floor should be absurdly high on a short slate. It's a price and opportunity mismatch.

Other guys to consider on both slates:
I prefer Eric Gordon over James Harden between the Rockets' shooting guards, just because I think you have other good spend up options here. Harden hasn't topped 34 minutes since returning from injury, and I'm not banking on him doing so in what is likely going to be a lopsided affair. On the same token, I think Gordon could benefit from things getting out of hand, and the price is right on his minutes as-is.

For the late slate, I think either DeMar DeRozan or Avery Bradley are fine filler options, depending on how much salary you have available. Both are projected for similar points per dollar in our system. While the cosmetics around playing DeRozan against the Lakers appear better, the Cavs have been simply horrendous on D this year, and more JR Smith won't likely make them much better in that department.

Small forward

Wesley Johnson FD - $4900 DK - $4400
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.4 DK - 24.08
Back to back excellent games for Johnson on these prices, and he's been great in every game but one since his role was expanded against Houston on 1/15. He's been an absolute monster defensively, and you could even see him draw extended minutes here given how small the Pelicans will likely go. Another very easy value play, and a guy we'd consider playing on a full slate much less a 3 gamer.

Brandon Ingram FD - $6000 DK - $5600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 29.59 DK - 29.65
There aren't a lot of fantastic small forward options on the late slate, but I think Ingram looks like a solid one. It's not a great match-up with Toronto, but you're buying low on Ingram's price if you think his minutes return to where they were pre-injury. They've been trending upward with 33 in his last 2 contests, and while Vegas has the Raptors favored by 9.5 points here, I think it's a risk worth taking. Ingram will be priced 10% higher once his minutes return, and we're getting enough of a bargain that it makes up for the minutes risk.

Other guys to consider for each slate:
Our system likes TJ Warren for the early slate, but there are obvious blowout considerations here. If the game stays close, though, you could see a big performance from him.

On the late slate, I imagine Paul George will get some run. It's simply a very shallow slate for the position. Covington goes up against OKC in a terrible match-up. The Raptors, Kings, and Pistons don't field the position for DFS purposes. The Spurs' plan is anybody's guess in an almost assured blowout. And LeBron is in a rough spot with Detroit (though I do think he's playable). I think we're just going for floor at SF late today.

Power forward

Anthony Davis FD - $11700 DK - $10900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 57.67 DK - 57.67
Davis' price is an actual joke on DraftKings, and will rise in short order in the absence of Cousins. It's very hard to believe he doesn't shoot 22+ shots here, and as we've mentioned countless times, the Clippers' interior defense is very overrated. They've allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, and again, the opportunity is just through the roof here. On the same token...

Blake Griffin FD - $8700 DK - $8600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 45.78 DK - 47.21
The Pelicans rank dead last in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing power forwards, and their interior defense just got even weaker. Our model shows the Pelicans running Davis at the 5 and attempting to go small, which could work normally, but should get them soundly punished against the Clippers excellent offensive bigs. Blake's game log paints an uninspiring picture, but again, the best possible match-up for opposing power forwards just got even better. I'd really like to run him in cash games in particular.

Serge Ibaka FD - $5600 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.53 DK - 28.11
A late slate value play. Ibaka thrives in fast paced games since he's athletic enough to get up and down the court and get maximum value from the extra possessions a transition game provides. He's only playing about 28-30 minutes per game these days, but that should be plenty of time to accumulate value against a Lakers team that's allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing power fowards this season.

For the late slate, power forward is pretty rough. I'd lean Ben Simmons if you can afford it, even in a tough match-up with OKC. The price is still too low.

Center

Tristan Thompson FD - $3600 DK - $4400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 23.43 DK - 23.08
Kevin Love FD - $7100 DK - $7400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 36.77 DK - 39.9
Both Cleveland "centers"? Why not? Thompson played 31 minutes as a part of Cleveland's new game plan, and was excellent on a fantasy points per minute basis. It stands to reason that his skills will be more useful than ever against Drummond here. Love is still just a solid value option at these prices, but he's more of a DraftKings play with his multi-position eligibility. I'd much rather play Tristan for cash.

For the early slate, oy. Let's break down your options in one line each.

New Orleans, Milwaukee, and Chicago don't field the position for DFS purposes.
Clint Capela is in a great match-up, but very expensive.
The Suns can't decide what they want to do, but if Monroe starts, he'll be overwhelming chalk.
DeAndre Jordan is in a great match-up, but has only played 30 minutes a game since returning from injury. GL on this one my friends.

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