Indiana Pacers' Victor Oladipo, right, dribbles past Atlanta Hawks' Dennis Schroder, of Germany, in the third quarter of an NBA basketball game in Atlanta, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017. Indiana won 105-95. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
It’s Saturday in the NBA and we have six games scheduled. Theres a seventh 5ET contest that sees the Thunder traveling into Detroit, if you’re interested in playing the all day slate, but for our purposes here, we’ll focus on the main slate tipping off at 7PM. We’ve got some poor defenses to take advantage of, while two of the best in the game battle it out in Oakland. Let’s check out our projection system’s top picks.
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Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 47.36 DK - 49.47
We start things off in the Golden State where the Warriors will host the visiting Celtics tonight. Vegas has yet to release a line on this game, likely due to Kevin Durant's appearance on the injury report with a sore foot. KD is probable and likely will play, but regardless, expect this one to be a competitive, high scoring affair. Our focus for now however is on Steph Curry at the point guard spot. Steph is coming in as one of the top overall plays in our NBA lineup optimizer, despite going against a top five defense against opposing point guards. One of the main reasons would be the price. Steph remains a value on FanDuel where he is still well below the $10K mark, and even on DraftKings, he is down to just over $10K. For a player whose recent game log has him coming in just around 50 FP per game, while running the boards at least 33 minutes in his last seven contests, Steph continues to be a fantastic value in cash games.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 28.11 DK - 28.45
My other favorite game of the night has the Pacers hosting the Magic. Our first focus from this game, but certainly not our last will be Indiana’s PG Darren Collison. Collison returned to the Pacers last night after a personal matter kept him out of Wednesday’s game against the Suns. Collison has been a key factor in The Pacers success this season as they hold onto a playoff spot approaching the All Star break. He’s averaging 12.7 points, 2.7 boards and 5.2 assists per game, while shooting just under 50% from the field and averaging just over 30 minutes per game. Orlando has the 27th ranked defense in the NBA, and surrender the fifth most fantasy points to the position. Collison has a solid floor of 25FP with potential to hit a ceiling of 35 if the Magic can keep it competitive, and is a play I’ll consider in all formats for the value.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 32.47 DK - 33.34
We’re not going to focus a lot on this game as it has the lowest combined pace factor at just 97.9, but let’s just stop for a moment and appreciate the recent surge of Dennis Smith Jr onto the NBA daily fantasy radar. Over his last seven games DSJ has averaged 32 minutes per game and scored double digit points in each game, eclipsing the 20 point mark four times in that stretch. He hasn’t been content with just the scoring either, contributing to all facets of the game as evidenced by the 5 assists and 3.5 rebounds he’s been averaging. Though the price is on the rise, if his current play proves consistent then there is still plenty of room to grow as he has hit a ceiling over 40FP twice in just the past two weeks, while averaging 33.6 FP in that stretch. Add in a matchup against the third worst team at defending the point and we have a solid cash play with plenty of tournament appeal as well.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 47.02 DK - 47.43
We can’t talk about the Pacers without talking about Victor Oladipo. Oladipo has taken control of the Pacers offense this season, scoring over 20 points in four of his last five games, coming just a point shy of 20 in the fifth one. He’s locked in at 32-36 minutes per game and tonight takes on the 18th ranked defense against point guards in the game. His 30.4% usage is well above the rest of his teammates, and will benefit him greatly in the game with the highest projected total of the four games that Vegas has released numbers on as of Friday night. Victor O. Is inching close to the $10K club, which is concerning, and certainly diminishes his upside, but against the poor Orlando defense, I’ll take Oladipo in cash without hesitation.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.28 DK - 28.07
In the middle tier we have Kent Bazemore of the Hawks. Bazemore has been having an impressive month of January, shooting 44.2% from the field, while averaging 13.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He’s coming off a monster outing against the Hornets last night in which he posted a season high 26 points and paid 7.4X PPD. The Wizards are the tenth ranked defense against the two this season, but over their last ten games they’ve been allowing 10 more FP on average and are a bottom ten team in that stretch. Bazemore may not have another 7X game in him tonight, but 5X should be well within his reach in a competitive game with the second highest projected total of the night. As cash plays go, we can do much worse.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 38.11 DK - 39.37
Sticking with the same game, we are going to cross over to the opposing bench and look to Bradley Beal of the Wizards. Beal is coming off a phenomenal outing against the Thunder where he paired 41 points with 12 rebounds and seven assists, in 45 minutes of playing time. It was the fourth time in his last six games that Beal has gotten at least 40 minutes, and the third time in his last four that he has scored 26 points or better. Bazemore’s offensive game has been impressive lately, but defensively he is nothing to be feared, and the Hawks as a team are a bottom ten defense at the two in their last ten games. Beal has seriously under performed a couple of times in his last several games, so there is some inherent risk here, but the minutes will be there, and the matchup is prime, so Beal should get us the 40 we need for cash games, while providing some upside potential for tournaments as well. If you have the funds to spend all the way up for ‘Dipo I suggest you do so, but otherwise I’m good with Beal as a pivot.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.79 DK - 27.23
Once again, Jimmy Butler is questionable for the Timberwolves. Once again, if he sits out a fifth straight game Nemanja Bjelica shoots to the top of the list of value plays. Bjelica saw just 26 minutes in the first game he started in Jimmy Bucket’s spot, but since then has played 34, 35, and most recently 36 minutes against the Warriors in a game in which he posted an 11/6/3 line with two steals. The price continues to inch up with each start, but it’s still well below where it should be, and if Butler is unable to go tonight then lock Bjelica in first, then build around him. If Butler is cleared, then just skip down to the next play.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 26.21 DK - 26.55
If Butler plays, and Bjelica becomes unplayable, Jonathon Simmons steps into the top PPD role at the small forward position. Simmons doesn’t fill me with the greatest of confidence as he’s very reliant on his scoring, which has been streaky at best lately. In his last five games Simmons has scored 14, 9, 16, 4, and 23 points. When he can find his shot Simmons is a fantastic value play as he only needs to net you about 25 FP to pay value, and to his merit he gets plenty of minutes to make it happen. In his last five games he’s averaging 32.5 per game and has paid 5X PPD in three of those. Indiana is the sixth ranked defense at the three, but they do surrender 18.9 real points per game to the position. We’re in much better shape if Jimmy Buckets sits again, but if he doesn’t in a position with several question marks and no safe way to pay up, Simmons is a cheap way out of the three.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 33.92 DK - 33.34
Otto Porter ran the boards for 36 minutes against the Thunder on Thursday night, but you still have to question if the hip strain was impacting his game as he scored only 11 points, which was the second highest total he has posted in a game in his last five outings. Despite the poor shooting Porter hasn’t been a terrible DFS play thanks to his ability to contribute across the board. Dating back to January 12th he’s averaged 9.4 Points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Atlanta is ranked 25th overall against opposing small forwards, and in a game that is expected to be high scoring and remain competitive throughout, Porter should have plenty of chances to open the floor and fill out the stat sheet making for an excellent cash play at the weakest position on the night.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.01 DK - 37.09
Usually power forward is a bear, but tonight we have three solid plays to consider, and compared to small forward the four is actually looking rather promising. We begin the position with Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis continues to draw the start for the injured Myles Turner, and though he has yet to flash any major upside, he has proven to be a solid cash game play with a safe 30-35 point floor. Last night in Cleveland Sabonis notched his 11th double double of the season and ended the evening paying 5X PPD for the third time in his last four games. This game features a 99.95 combined pace factor with Orlando playing the seventh fastest pace in the game which will speed up Indiana’s game. Sabonis isn’t priced much higher than where he was prior to Turner being put out of commission, and remains a solid value play in all formats with a 30 point floor and 40 point ceiling.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 40.95 DK - 40.26
Draymond Green has really stepped his game up in the past month, averaging just under a double double per game with 15.3 points and 9.3 rebounds in 35 minutes per game for the month of January. The Dubs power forward is coming off of an outing against Minnesota in which he didn’t shoot exceptionally well scoring just nine points, but made up for it by contributing in other aspects of the game. It was his second straight game coming in below 5X PPD, but prior to that he paid 5.5X or better in three of four. He’ll look to get back on track tonight as the Celtics are at their worst defending the four. In just their last ten games, they’re allowing 44.4 FP per game, which is 12 FP more than their season average. Dray is another one I will look to in all formats.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.58 DK - 30.03
If you need some savings at the position, you can skip down to Taj Gibson. Gibson has seen at least 33 minutes in five of his last six games, topping off at 40. He’s also paid better than 5X PPD in four of those games, most recently double doubling against the Warriors on Thursday night. Minnesota hosts the Nets tonight who are absolutely terrible defending against the four, allowing the second most FP to the position this season. This is the other game that Vegas is holding back on, though I would expect this to be the one game where we may have to worry about it getting out of hand. This is concerning as Gibsons production is tied in to his minutes. In games where he plays 30 minutes or less, Gibson has come in well under value. If you think this one stays close, and Taj can get his time, then pull the trigger with confidence.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.85 DK - 48.59
Sticking with the same game, we have Gibsons front court mate, Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT is coming in as a top PPD play on the slate, and has the highest raw point projection at the position. Brooklyn is the third worst team defending against opposing big men, and play at a top five pace in the NBA. This will provide KAT with a few extra looks, and present him with the opportunity to hit a 45 FP floor, with potential 55-60 point upside. Towns is ranked fifth overall this season wit 12 rebounds per game, and tonight takes on the team allowing more boards per game than any other. Towns is a much better play if Butler remains out, as he sees a 2.4% bump in usage with Butler off the court per NBAwowy.com, though he is an excellent play in all formats regardless and I will have a ton of exposure with the value available at the other positions.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 44.8 DK - 46.82
Nikola Jokic is priced the same as KAT on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he comes at a significant discount. On FD you can split exposure, or just focus on KAT who is in a much better matchup, on DK however, you have to consider Joker for the price, or if you have the salary available consider playing both. Jokic posted his third straight double double on Thursday night in 35 minutes against the Knicks. Dallas is average on paper against opposing centers, and Jokic who is locked in to 32-36 minutes per game is in a good spot and could very easily hit the 5X PPD mark tonight. On FD I’ll stick with Towns, but on DK I’m all about Joker, under priced in a solid matchup.
Thanks for reading, and be sure to look for the update article closer to lock. As always, leave any questions or comments below, and be sure to pop in the member chat where the hoops talk never stops. Good luck out there tonight. Let’s get it!! Cheers!
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NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing