Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins (22) pushes the ball around Toronto Raptors guard Terrence Ross (31) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2016, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 41.7 DK - 41.95
Welcome to NBA Monday! We have just 8 games on the slate tonight and a few very obvious ways to go. We'll start with one of those guys in Eric Bledsoe. With Giannis Antetokounmpo already ruled out and Malcolm Brogdon looking iffy, the minutes are locked in at 35-40. We saw both of these guys sit last game and it resulted in Bledsoe playing 38 minutes. The usage ended up split between Bledsoe and Middleton evenly, both sitting at 27%, way up from normal. Bledsoe has the ball in his hands all game long, which is just not how it is on most nights with point Giannis taking so many looks. We know how fast the Suns like to play and they rank 24th in the league against point guards. Tyler Ulis is extremely small and Bledsoe is going to take advantage wherever he wants. With Giannis out, I think this game stays close and these guys get a full allotment of minutes. It'd be nice for Brogdon to also sit for the sake of Bledsoe, but it's not really necessary. He's going to be one of the most popular plays on the slate and I'll be on board. He's an elite play in all formats at a fair low $8k tag.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 25.34 DK - 26.81
As long as Austin Rovers remains out with his bruised heel, Milos Teodosic is an excellent way to pay down at PG. He's been over 30 minutes in each of the last 2 games and has put up 28 fantasy points in 2 of the last 3. The 3rd coming against the Jazz in quite a weird game. He is a really good point guard and the Clippers have no problem letting him run the halfcourt offense. He's not at consistent as you'd like out of a ballhandler, but that's more so because of his minutes, or lack thereof. Now that he's getting 30, the price is far too low. He's going to be between 20-30 on most night and go over 30 plenty. Minnesota is a good team defense, but rank just 20th against point guards. With Wiggins and Butler being elite defenders on the wing, a lot of usage gets pushed towards the 1. Teodosic won't shoot a ton, but he spreads his numbers out nicely and does a good job of stuffing the stat sheet. Under $5k, he needs you just 20. That will be done by the 3rd quarter if this game stays close. He's viable in all formats at this price, but is more of a cash game player by nature.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 23.87 DK - 24.63
Yogi Ferrell still saw 30 minutes even with J.J. Barea out, so we still have to pay attention in this spot. Barea is back to questionable and we may be back to getting 35+ minutes of Ferrell tonight. He certainly matches up well with the Wizards and the PACE they play at. He finished between 26 and 32 fantasy points each game with the extended minutes and was one of the best value plays for an entire week. I'm still on board under $5k. This is a guy who forces the offense to run through his hands and is extremely good at doing so. The Wizards play at a top 10 PACE and can give it up to point guards. Dennis Smith Jr. Will match-up with Wall, which should allow Ferrell a bit of an easier time with a slew of backups and Beal. Vegas has this game staying competitive and Ferrell has been in there down the stretch as of late. It's always tough with him coming off the bench, but the minutes have been consistent, so you almost can't worry about it. I do prefer Teodosic if you're looking for safety, but Ferrell could easily grab 35 minutes and have another huge game. Point guard is interesting and a spot that's extremely important to get right.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 42.24 DK - 42.93
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 24.87 DK - 24.79
We're right back at SG to take advantage of this situation in Miluakee with Giannis. We know we're getting a lot of value with Antetokounmpo out of the lineup, but there are still some questions surrounding Malcolm Brogdon. You'd have to assume that if Brogdon does play, he'll take the role of Sterling Brown and his 39 minutes last game. I don't, however, think it matters to Khris Middleton. He is still going to be the focal point of this offense and will take 25 shots if the game stays close. He put up a triple-double and 54 fantasy points with him out last game and was all over the floor for all 40 minutes. He's not a guy I'm willing to fade against a Suns team that plays no perimeter defense. As for Sterling Brown, we just wait for the Brogdon news. If he sits, Sterling Brown is close to a must at over 30 minutes at minimum price. All in all, if Brogdon is ruled out, I will have close to 100% of Bledsoe, Middleton, and Brown. You can play all 3. This Suns team, who ranks 21st against SG's, plays faster than anyone and gives these guys an insane ceiling.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.29 DK - 32.51
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the biggest news of the day, but Jimmy Butler is a close 2nd. We haven't heard anything on his status just yet, so we're in the dark. If he plays, Andrew Wiggins is still an option. Just not nearly as good of one. If Butler sits, the usage is going to pour towards Andrew Wiggins. His usage went to an insane 34% with Butler out last game and he'd be in my lineup in the $7k's. We know the Clippers are a lackluster defense at best and every number will support it. Against shooting guards, they rank dead last with 49 FPG allowed. They don't really have any perimeter defenders, and the lack of rim protection is troubling with no DeAndre Jordan. As long as Butler is out, Wiggins is a guy that will be in 100% of my lineups. Unless he just goes ice cold, I don't see him missing 30 fantasy points in 35+ minutes of 34% usage. That's just really tough to do against the worst team in the league against your position. Wiggins is going to be impossible to stay away from if the news breaks his way. Middleton, Wiggins, and Brown are 3 guys I'm going to have a lot of trouble deciding between.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.45 DK - 32.17
If Giannis and Butler were healthy tonight, we'd certainly be on one of them here. We're just now stuck with a weird position that doesn't have anyone over $7k that's healthy. We're going to search out a cash game gem in Josh Richardson. If looking for consistency out of Miami, Richardson is where you go. With all of the uncertainties and injuries at guard with Waiters, Dragic, and Johnson, Richardson is the guy who they have relied on. He's taken the load on his shoulders and run with it, sitting between 35-45 on most nights. He's over 34 minutes in most games and does a good job of staying involved no matter his match-up. Tonight, it'll be a mix of Trevor Ariza, James Harden, and Eric Gordon. Ariza is fine and the guy who will be on him down the stretch, but he's still not nearly as good as he once was. The Rockets rank 21st against opposing small forwards, so there's nothing to worry about there. With Dragic questionable, Richardson could also be in line for some ball-handling responsibility. His floor is 25 with a ceiling in the 50's. Small forward is pretty ugly and there isn't any opportunity cost on the high-end. Richardson is too cheap on both sites and makes a lot of sense in all formats.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 20.12 DK - 20.61
With Jimmy Butler out last game, Bjelica saw 26 minutes. You'd like to see closer to 30, but I see 26 as a floor with Butler out. He could easily get to 35 if the game is tailored to his style and he's hitting shots. His price is sitting at the bottom of the barrel, allowing you to be happy with 20 fantasy points and out of your mind about 30. Bjelica isn't a backup that just stands in the corner, either. He is always involved in the offense and actually holds a usage % higher than Taj. That'll obviously decrease as he's on the floor with Towns and Wiggins, but the point still stands. He's an active player who gets his hands on the ball and isn't afraid to let it fly. Assuming Butler is out again, Bjelica is easily one of the best value plays. Aside from the Clippers being an atrocious defense, the game is expected to stay close. With no DeAndre Jordan, the Clippers could go small and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bjelica match-up for 30+ minutes.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 42.75 DK - 44.23
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 31.9 DK - 31.27
Power forward is a pretty interesting spot. There's an argument for Anthony Davis and there always is, but he's as expensive as ever and not in a situation that stands out. We'll instead look down a tier and focus on Blake Griffin. With Jordan out for the past week, the Clippers have struggled to cover him up. He's obviously not a big shot taker, so Griffin hasn't seen his usage go up, but he's under the rim more and stuffing the stat sheet. He's also locked into 35 minutes if the game is close. On paper, the T-Wolves are good against power forwards. Against Blake Griffin, that won't be the case. Taj Gibson and Nemanja Bjelica are just not fast enough to stay with Griffin and both will get abused outside of the paint. Maybe Towns finds a way on him, which is just an excellent match-up to watch. Towns is not a premier defender by any means, however, so it wouldn't do all that much. As long as this game does remain close, Griffin is going to have fun and end up over 40 fantasy points. He's seeing 20 shots a night and this match-up is one that works perfectly for him. As for Montrezl Harrell, he's fine. That's about all I'm willing to say, even though I'll have my fair share of exposure. He's been over 30 minutes in 2 of the last 3 games, so it's very possible against a bigger T-Wolves team. He is productive when on the floor and can be banked for 25 fantasy points if given the minutes. I just like the next guy a little bit more.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.56 DK - 29.23
Trey Lyles is right back to his 28+ minutes, so let's hop on board. He went through a rough patch with some blowouts, but has been playing 30+ minutes for most of the past couple months. His price is back down a little bit and I see him in the same situation as before. He's been a consistent contributor for the Nuggets and will typically sit between 25-35 FP. He isn't the number 1 or 2 option on offense, but does take a lot of shots and can easily end up as one of the leading scorers on the team. He matches up with a Trail Blazers squad that struggles with big PF's. On paper, they dominate power forwards. The problem is that most PF's aren't like Trey Lyles anymore. Aminu is going to have trouble banging down low and it'll likely be Ed Davis who ends up on him. He'll have a ton of trouble on the outside, where Aminu will be effective. It puts the Nuggets in a good spot for some mismatches and Lyles shouldn't have a problem taking advantage. He doesn't really have off nights as he can spread it around as good as any big.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 44.72 DK - 46.49
Center isn't the easiest spot ever. On the high-end, there's DeMarcus Cousins and Karl Anthony-Towns. Both are extremely solid plays and you can go with either. For me, DeMarcus Cousins is just a little too expensive at over $11k. We'll instead go for Towns, who is under $10k on both sites and in a very solid match-up with the Jordan-less Clippers. It's going to instead be Willie Reed and Blake Griffin, who are not very good defenders in the first place. You then add in that Towns is bigger and stronger than both and has dominated the Clippers plenty before. This is a game that Vegas expects to be high-scoring and tight, and we know Thibodeau is going to play his starters for 36+ minutes if the game stays close. Towns is inconsistent to a degree, but still grabs 40 FP in his bad games. When hot, he has no trouble going over 60. The Clippers are an underwhelming defense by every measure of the word and Minnesota will take advantage. You then add in that Jimmy Butler is questionable and there may be a whole bunch of shots up for grabs. If he does miss, TOwns is going to see another 5-7 shots and a 5% usage bump. He's my favorite center on the high-end and isn't tough to pay for with so much value on the slate.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 31.65 DK - 31.42
If you need to pay down a bit, Jusuf Nurkic is extremely interesting against a weak Nuggets frontcourt. His previous team has Nikola Jokic at the 5, who's a top 3 offensive center in the entire league. He just doesn't know how to play much defense. Jusuf Nurkic, who was originally a Nugget, holds a ton of animosity towards the team. While most people don't are much about Nurkic and his feelings, it matters tonight. He has been quoted tons of times about his distaste for this organization and how they handled his situation. You can say it's meaningless as he's already had good and bad games against the Nuggets, but he shot more than average in each of those. The NBA is the one sport where you'll hear guys like Kelly Olynyk and Jusuf Nurkic urged by their teammates to produce in these types of spots. In baseball, you can't sacrifice an at-bat so your buddy can hit one against his former team. In basketball, you most certainly can and it happens a lot. Nurkic is by no means going to get fed like crazy, but it's worth noting. His minutes are always a bit weird, but he sits at 1.16 FP per minute, so the production is well-noted. He is my highest owned center on the night and a guy that fits perfectly at his price. He's elite in all formats under $7k.
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View Comments
NBA sheet for Monday:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
Thanks Chris!
Nurkic played with zero energy last time he went against the Nuggets, but hopefully this time will be different since he'll actually be back IN Denver for the first time.
I agree. He is a very weird player in every aspect.
Not only all that for Bledsoe but his #narrative is even stronger than Nurkic’s, maybe
Yep, should be fun. Will be interesting to see where his ownership % ends up. My guess is around 60-70% in 50/50's.