Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond (0) scores as San Antonio Spurs defenders Boris Diaw (33) and Patty Mills (8) look on during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2015, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
A four game slate always gets my blood pressure up in the NBA, but my friends! There is hope. We have some nice defenses to target here in Brooklyn and the Lakers, and we also have a handful of fresh opportunities for players on teams bit by the injury bug. Value to spare - let's make some lineups!
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.68 DK - 33.49
We should always be so lucky to get such a perfect midrange play on such a small slate. Smith's minutes have finally stabilized in the mid-30s, tying his season high with 34 minutes in 2 of his last 3 games. The price is starting to creep up, but not nearly high enough to account for the excellent match-up today. Brooklyn is not quite as juicy as they've been in the past - they're only barely in the bottom half of the league when it comes to defensive efficiency - but their top 5 pace should really help Detroit pad their stats. I particularly like this match-up for Smith because he's a drive-happy pass first point guard, which should be extremely punishing on Brooklyn's poor defensive rotations. It doesn't hurt that Brooklyn has allowed the very most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season, either. Easy play in all formats for me, here.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 42.85 DK - 44.21
Kyrie practiced on Saturday, and the nature of his injury (a sore left shoulder) leaves me less than concerned about his status going forward. We'll obviously need word that he is definitely going to play, but if we receive it, I expect that he'll play his full run of minutes. Irving's situation is actually fairly similar to Ish's in that he's settling into a minutes workload that doesn't reflect his current prices. He's averaged just 33 minutes per game this season, but it's clear that the present plan is to play him 36-40 minutes per game. As for Orlando, it's another terrific match-up for point guards. They aren't quite as bad as Brooklyn, but they rank fourth in the NBA in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. I suppose you're taking on a little bit of minutes risk whenever someone is labeled a "game time decision," but given that this is the first game of the day we should know about Irving's status in plenty of time leading up to the game.
If Irving is injured, this position gets ugly very quickly. I suppose Terry Rozier could be a thing, but frankly it might just make the whole slate a stay away.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32.42 DK - 33.41
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 23.56 DK - 23.53
Part of why PG looks so bad today is that the Lakers will almost certainly be starting someone who qualifies at shooting guard at point guard today. With the likely absence of KCP, both of these guys just skyrocket in value. They're cheap, both played mid-30s minutes last game, and should be in line for similar opportunity in a nice match-up with the Knicks. So are they both auto-locks? Not so fast, I'm afraid. I think Clarkson's role should be well secure here, but I do have some concerns about Hart after a lackluster performance in this exact spot last game against Indiana. If the Lakers continue to remember that Clarkson is likely a better player than Hart, he could find himself playing second fiddle whenever Clarkson is on the floor. Still, he paid these prices handily in the 2 games prior to last, and I have a tough time believing that he can't pay off a $4,200 price tag in the absence of both Ball and KCP.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.47 DK - 27.56
Just a standard mid-range value play in one of the league's best match-ups. Lee's averaged 5.5x points per dollar in his last two games in very tough match-ups with Utah and Memphis, and Hardaway's return hasn't had the predicted negative impact on Lee's minutes or usage. Jack appears to be more the odd man out here, playing just 28 minutes in each of New York's last two games. As for the match-up details, the Lakers have already allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards, and that accounts for a much better defender playing minutes at the position in KCP. With Clarkson, Hart, Ennis, and Caruso patrolling the backcourt I'm less than concerned about Lee getting locked down. Seems like a high floor play even if the upside isn't transcendent.
Also considered: Avery Bradley in a super-juicy match-up with Brooklyn, though I am moderately concerned about the groin injury. It wasn't great to see him dip to 29 minutes last game, and on a day with so many good plays I think you can do safer for cash games.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.12 DK - 26.51
Another guy who's priced to a slightly lower minutes total, Simmons saw his minutes jump right back up to his pre-injury totals against Cleveland, and saw his performance follow suit. He put up 16/3/4/1/2 against the Cavs, good for 6.5x points per dollar on these paltry prices. He'll have another tough match-up with Boston here, and there is certainly a lot of minutes risk in going up against such a stalwart defense, but passing up value like this might wind up being tough to do. Simmons was a $6,000 player before his injury dinged his minutes and performance, and I expect he'll return there in short order. We'd obviously prefer a better match-up here, but on such a short slate, beggars can't always be choosers.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 25.8 DK - 24.7
Kyle Anderson came back with a vengeance after I threw dirt on him after the Brooklyn game, and I'm left not knowing what to think. The short story is: if you think the plan is to play him 30+ minutes like he did against Toronto and Atlanta, you play him. If you think he's a risk to play 20-23 minutes like he did against Brooklyn, you fade it. Again, though, it's the short-slate issue. I don't see a whole lot of other value elsewhere, and when in doubt I think we need to trust the last game. There were no obvious extenuating circumstances that led to his return to 30 minutes against Toronto, so I'll pencil him in for 30 minutes once again (and hold my breath while praying not to get popped).
If Ingram misses the Lakers' game consider Corey Brewer. He played 29 minutes in their last go-round, and would be a very viable high floor option if he were to have the opportunity to play high 20s minutes once again.
A quick note on why this position looks so bad, by team:
Jaylen Brown could be a reasonable play, but the usage is down, the price is up, and he's had a difficult time paying these prices recently. Still worth considering, I suppose.
New York's small forward position is a mish mash of shooting guards and guys like Beasley and McDermott. No.
Demarre Carroll is fine, but way too expensive against a tough DET defense.
Speaking of Detroit, the return of Stanley Johnson has killed Reggie Bullock's value.
Bojan Bogdanovic has been playing more minutes, but still struggling to pay these prices. Taking him against the Spurs? Puke city.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 45.25 DK - 45.02
Another super-thin position, and you're going to wind up playing Aldridge here for a couple of major reasons. First of all, Indiana is just a world class match-up for opposing power forwards. Sabonis and Young do a lot to stretch out opposing defenses, but for all they bring on the offensive end, they give back at least that much defensively. They've gotten particularly buried by power forwards who can both post up and hit the mid-range 2, and that happens to be Aldridge's exact offensive profile. LMA himself has been on a tear in his last 3 games, looking very comfortable with Kawhi sidelined once again. He's paid 5x points per dollar in each of the last 3 games, and I think that will continue in this one.
The other major reason you're playing Aldridge is the dire lack of big money playoffs. He's looking like a really easy play, here.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 34.64 DK - 36.89
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 27.7 DK - 27.99
In your second slot, you get a couple of very different options. Do you want Sabonis, who is a tremendous value on these prices given his current opportunity, but who is playing in a very bad match-up with the Spurs? Or do you fancy Tatum, whose minutes and performance have been rather erratic but who has an excellent match-up? I'm honestly not sure. I think I ultimately lean Sabonis here simply because I trust his minutes more. Tatum's minutes not only come and go, the Cs are favored by 10.5 points here. The Spurs, meanwhile, are favored by just 5.5, leading me to believe that Sabonis is the better bet to play 33+ minutes. Still, I don't feel great about either of these plays.
Also considered: Tobias Harris. On paper he should be the obvious play here, but what the heck is going on with his minutes? At 31 minutes a game, he just isn't a $6,500 player. Give him the 34-35 he was playing earlier this season and he'd be an auto-inclusion in a great spot versus Brooklyn. I suspect he'll have high cash game ownership, but I might be on the fade train here.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 50.45 DK - 51.14
Speaking of people that will have some ownership, I present one Andre Drummond. He's at a career high in terms of DFS prices, but it's damned justified. Drummond utterly wrecked two tough opponents in his last two games in Washington and Toronto, and gets a drastically easier match-up with Brooklyn's "bigs" here. The Nets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and that's just normal human being centers - not actual aliens like Drummond. With 21 and 17 rebounds in his last two games, it's hard to imagine Drummond not being the best big money payoff on the slate. An easy play in all formats.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 37.15 DK - 37.3
If you're playing a slate that includes the early game, consider big Al as a hedge at the center position. He's averaged a hair under 5x points per dollar in his last 3 games, and has a nice match-up with the fast paced Magic. He's a great cash game play if you play the early FanDuel slate that doesn't include the Brooklyn/Detroit game, but not playable over Drummond unless Andre's price becomes a problem for you for whatever reason.
An interesting GPP play: Pau Gasol? Everyone and their mother will be playing Drummond, but Gasol actually has a juicier match-up here. If Drummond loses minutes for whatever reason, there are many reasonable scenarios where Gasol takes advantage of the Pacers' unrefined big-man defenders and puts up the best points per dollar performance on the slate.
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NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing