Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid in action during an NBA basketball game against the Miami Heat, Monday, Nov. 21, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Saturday in the NBA brings us a seven game main slate tipping off at 7ET with plenty of fast paced action and high scoring projections coming out of Vegas. The fantasy points should come fast and furiously with lots of solid plays to consider, so let’s take a look at the top plays at each position as generated by our system.
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 51.81 DK - 53.82
Two games will stand out as our favorites tonight, starting with this one which sees the Warriors traveling into Houston for a game with the Rockets. This game not only has the fastest combined pace of the night, but sports a ridiculous 234.5 projection coming out of Vegas. There will be fantasy value aplenty coming out of this game, and on the Golden State side it starts with Steph Curry. Curry is now three games back from a two game absence due to an ankle injury and has been straight heat each time out most recently dropping 30 points while coming a rebound shy of a double double against the Bulls. Chris Paul is a solid defender, but Houston as a team is average on paper against opposing PG’s and Steph should have no trouble at all eclipsing the 5X PPD mark in this one. Steph will be in my lineups in all formats tonight.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.84 DK - 40.4
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 19.32 DK - 20.55
Giannis Antetokounmpo has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Sixers. This leaves about 40 minutes up for grabs in the Milwaukee rotation, and Eric Bledsoe and Matthew Dellavedova both stand to benefit greatly from his absence. Bledsoe sees a five percent usage bump with the freak off the court and for his price should be all but guaranteed to hit 35FP with a ceiling pushing 45-50. Philly will counter with T.J. McConnell and Jerryd Bayless, neither of whom will be able to keep up with him. Dellavedova meanwhile is strictly a tournament only play, priced at the minimum across the industry who could very well go off if he’s able to stretch his time out to the 20 minute mark or beyond. I won’t touch him in cash games, but as an under the radar GPP pivot, I will definitely make sure to have some exposure against a Philly team allowing the seventh most FP on average at the position.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.29 DK - 40.38
Sticking with the Philly/Milwaukee game, we have the Bucks two guard Khris Middleton. Nobody in Milwaukee benefits more from Giannis being off the court than Middleton who sees his usage jump from 23.7 to 33.0 in that situation. When Giannis sat out for rest against the Hornets on Dec. 23rd, Middleton ran the boards for 40 minutes and posted a 31/5/4/1/1 line good for 6.2X at his current price point. The minutes are an afterthought for
Middleton who has seen 40 minutes in each of his last two contests. Philly plays the second fastest game in basketball, and has the third most generous defense at the two which will add up to plenty of opportunity for Middleton in a game with a 214 projection. Middleton is a tremendous play in all formats who should at the very least end the night at 5X PPD if not well above. Lock him in with confidence.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 24.86 DK - 26.44
Dion Waiters is shut down most likely for the season, and Tyler Johnson will most likely remain out tonight as the Heat travel into Charlotte, leaving a ton of minutes in the Miami back court. While still leading the second team Wayne Ellington has figured prominently into the Miami offense and remains a consistent source of value. A lock on most nights for 32-35 minutes Ellington has hit the 20 FP mark needed to pay value at these prices in seven of his last ten games. Last night in a return to the Barclays Center that he used to call home, Ellington dropped double digit scoring for the third straight game, and tonight faces a Hornets team that is even more targetable at the position than Brooklyn is. Ellington is a tremendous cash game play, coming in at an absolute bargain, and one I plan on having a ton of exposure to.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.28 DK - 31.06
I'm not giving much attention to the early/all day slate today, but do want to take a moment to talk about Kent Bazemore. If you do decide to roll the dice on the early/all day, Bazemore is an excellent play to lock into your cash games. The price is back on the upswing, after dipping into the mid $5K range, but the production has remained consistent dating back to last month. Outside of a forgettable night in Portland a few weeks back Bazemore has put up scores of 27-35FP on the regular with 40 point upside, and minutes locked into the 20-30 range. Over his last three games he eclipsed the 30 minute mark twice. If you think that continues against a terrible Chicago defense in a game with just a two point spread, then feel confident in rolling with Bazemore in cash games.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 51.27 DK - 51.27
We’ve got five ways to drop over $10K in salary on a single player tonight, and Kevin Durant stands as one of the best ways to do just that. KD is coming off of a very un-Durantlike outing against the Bulls on Wednesday, in which he scored less than 20 points for the first time in his past ten games. KD has played five games now since returning from a three game absence with a calf injury. In that stretch, his two best games have come against the Clippers and Cavaliers who are both among the six worst in the league against small forwards. The Rockets are ranked eleventh worst on the season, but over their last ten games they’ve allowed the fifth most FP to the position. They also are without Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green who are still serving their two game suspensions for the incident in L.A. on Monday night. This should present KD with a chance to crush value in a game with a combined pace factor of 101.9 and the highest projected total by a mile. KD should be plenty safe for cash game purposes.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 21.9 DK - 21.83
Speaking of the brouhaha in L.A. between the Clippers and the Rockets, Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green are serving the second game of their two game suspensions tonight for the fracas, and on Thursday against Minnesota P.J. Tucker saw 33 minutes of action though he didn’t do a whole lot with them scoring five points with nine rebounds and a steal. It stands to argue he should fare better against the Dubs tonight who are ranked 17th overall against opposing threes. Tucker’s priced at a point where he only needs to get us 20FP to be viable, and if the Rockets run with an eight man rotation again, and Tucker can stretch another 30+ minutes that shouldn’t be too much to ask in this game. I prefer Tucker as a tournament punt, but don’t expect him to burn us in cash either if needed as a value play.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 31.96 DK - 31.79
I can hear you groaning now, but before you start flooding the comments with “Covington sucks” take a look at the price tag and remember this is a player who was commanding $7K less than a month ago. Whether it’s the finger injury he’s been dealing with, or something else altogether, we’ve seen RoCo hit these types of slumps before and bounce back from them, so it’s only a matter of time. Covington is a much better player than his recent game log suggests and before long he’ll be back to making it rain three pointers and crushing value at these ridiculously low prices, and what better night to turn things around than against a Bucks team allowing 52.8 FP on average over their last five games and who are without their top player tonight. RoCo isn’t safe by any means, but is cheap enough that the reward could far outweigh the risk.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 31.78 DK - 33.2
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.08 DK - 27.58
After GS/HOU this is the only other game on the slate with a combined pace over 100 which when considered along with the 214 total point projection coming from Vegas it’s no wonder our system is loving so many plays tonight. At power forward for example Dario Saric and John Henson lead the pack as point per dollar plays go, and while you may not get the raw point totals you’ll get from the brows, Blakes, and Drays of the world, those guys won’t return nearly as much for the price of admission. Saric has been a tremendous play for the Sixers down the stretch, you have to travel back to November 27th against the Cavaliers to find his last single digit scoring performance, and he’s paid 5.7X PPD or better in four of his last eight games, maxing out at 8X. The minutes have been a little wonky lately, going as low as 20 in a blowout of Detroit earlier this month, but when he gets to the 30 mark he regularly pays off value. Henson meanwhile doesn’t present quite the same upside, but for a significantly less on DraftKings he shares a similar 20-25 point floor. Philly is terrible defending the position, while Milwaukee is average on paper, so the matchup favors Henson. Stacking both is a wise consideration on FanDuel, while on DK, Henson is a cash game lock, with Saric being reserved for tournaments.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 26.85 DK - 26.62
Serge Ibaka is another guy whose recent performance has driven his cost down to the point where it’s just too low for what we know he’s capable of. Ibaka hasn’t looked himself since returning from a one game suspension served against the Cavaliers last week and was near nonexistent against the Spurs last night going 4/7/2 in 30 minutes. This is a far cry from the 13.4 points Ibaka is averaging this season. Minnesota is tough on paper against opposing power forwards, but they are allowing 20.8 points on average per game, so if Ibaka can start getting the ball to the hoop while maintaining the peripherals it won’t be long before he starts crushing at these prices. This game has the second highest projection of the evening at 216 so if you’re looking for a tournament pivot at the four, look no further.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 53.63 DK - 55.21
Sure, you can pay all the way up for Boogie if you want, but he’s hosting the Grizzlies tonight who plays the leagues slowest pace and are fairly tough on opposing big men. So why not save yourself a grand in salary take a player with a better raw point and PPD projection in “the process”. See what I did there? Joel Embiid is a top way to pay up at the five, and among the top tier overall he ranks among the best PPD plays on the night in a matchup against a Bucks team ranked in the bottom third defensively at the five in their last five games, allowing nearly 10 more FP than their season average in that span. Adding to the Philly All Star centers appeal is the 2.6% bump in usage he stands to see with JJ Redick off the court for at least the next two weeks with a leg injury. There’s not a case to be made against JoJo tonight. If you have the funds available at this point lock him in at the five and watch the fantasy points roll in.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.28 DK - 36.98
If you don’t have the funds however, then consider Clint Capela in our other favorite game of the evening. Capela is locked in to 25-35 minutes per night and pays value on the regular when he surpasses the 30 mark. Minutes should not be an issue tonight as the Rockets will come in extremely thin in the front court. Cappella has double doubled in four of his last seven games, and though the Warriors are a tough matchup for opposing centers, giving up the sixth fewest FP on average, for the price and opportunity reaching a floor of 35 should be no problem for a player averaging 1.32 FP per minute. I’m going to try my best make Embiid work, but if I have to pivot down to Capela, I’ll do so without a second thought.
Thanks for reading, and be sure to check back closer to lock for our news and updates article. Good luck out there tonight. Cheers!
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