Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic, left, of Serbia, looks to pass the ball as Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, in Denver. The Nuggets won 127-120. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Welcome to NBA Friday! We usually have 10+ games on Fridays, but that's certainly not what we have tonight. We have a 7-gamer on our hands instead that resembles more of an average weekend or Tuesday slate. There are plenty of ways to go, but it's not like a normal Wednesday or Friday where we have 15 options at each position. There are some clear ways to go and a couple spots where to steer clear.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.01 DK - 38.26
We'll open it up with one of the safest plays of all in Goran Dragic. Aside from Dragic already seeing 30+ minutes a night, Tyler Johnson is out. That locks him in over 33 with every single minute coming at the 1, which isn't always the case when Johnson is in the game. Dragic has been dominant as of late with 30+ fantasy points in 7 of the last 9 games. He's often over 40 and easily the most consistent player on this Heat squad next to Josh Richardson. He gets a match-up tonight that couldn't be any better. Literally. The Nets rank dead last against PG's and it has a lot to do with the league-high PACE they play at. Spencer Dinwiddie is also a bad defender and doesn't have any help at the rim. Dragic is a lock for 30 fantasy points with a ceiling in the low 50's. This is one of the simple plays of the day, but could end up overlooked.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.04 DK - 31.9
Moving down the pricing tier a little bit we run into Ish Smith. He's been great, as expected, with Reggie Jackson out for an extended period of time. Quality-wise, Ish Smith is a top 15 PG in this league and deserves a starting gig. He's dominated everywhere he goes, but is just so small and such a huge liability on defense. Whatever, we're not worried about that. We just care about what he does on offense and it's damn electric. He's easily one of the 3 fastest players in the league and probably the quickest with the ball. He'll match-up with John Wall tonight, who's obviously not the easiest match-up (15th against PG's). He does, however, love to run and so does Smith. A 209 over/under is high for the Pistons and certainly an up-pace game. He's been getting over 30 minutes in each game and stretched out to 35 when closed. He's not going to get you 50 fantasy points, but he's also a guarantee to stay over 20. Even as such a small guard, he does a lot in terms of peripherals. It keeps his floor high and his DFS points not reliant on a jumpshot. He's a fine option in all tournaments that will likely fall around 20% owned.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 19.83 DK - 20.46
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 6.78 DK - 6.79
We have Lonzo Ball and KCP out, so this is rather self-explanatory. They both see 30 minutes a night and we have plenty of them up for grabs at this point. Tyler Ennis and Gary Payton will grab 25-30 minutes at PG combined, with 10 from Caruso at the 2. That should leave both Clarkson and Hart well over 30 minutes. We know they can both do damage when on the floor and play very different roles. Clarkson should be the PG down the stretch if the game is close and it most certainly is expected to be. Hart is more of a pure scorer and a guy that relies on some PACE to the game. The match-up with the Pacers is a great one for these guys as they strive in fast-paced match-ups. Victor Oladipo and Bogdanovic are fine defenders, but they rank just 13th in the league and play at the 6th fastest PACE. Both of these guys need huge price bumps and I can't see a reason to fade at these prices. if you make me pick 1, I go with Clarkson only because of his upside at the PG position. I think Hart might be safer for 20 fantasy points, but I think they both easily get there as long as the game stays close. These guys will also tremendously help with the rest of your lineup while sticking to a decent 40 FP ceiling.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.67 DK - 37.07
Will Barton is a guy you want to target when you know he’s going to get his opportunities. In a crowded backcourt, he can absolutely get lost. He relies on getting into a rhythm and having the ball in his hands a lot. Tonight, there’s a good chance that’s what we see. Barton ended up playing 35 minutes with Murray sidelined. He still gets 30 minutes with Murray in, but they are all at the 2. He saw some ball-handling responsibility last game and turned it into 6 assists. He ended up with 40 fantasy points against a Clippers team that’s far tougher than the match-up tonight. We know the Suns don’t play defense and they play the 3rd fastest of anyone, so the recipe for success is most definitely there. As long as Barton doesn’t go ice cold from the field, lock him into 30 fantasy points with the upside for 60.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 23.99 DK - 25.39
With Dion Waiters out for the season, Wayne Ellington has himself a permanent role on this offense. I don't think the Heat go and make a huge move as Ellington is extremely serviceable and not their biggest problem. We also have Tyler Johnson out, which is another 30 minutes up for grabs at the guard position. Ellington is going to see 30+ tonight and I have a hard time believing he misses value against a Nets team that loves giving up open 3's. We know Wayne Ellington is down to shoot and he's not just going to stand in the corner and be useless. His price is under $5k on both sites and he'll only need you in the 20's in cash games. It's tough to give any credence to something like this, but Ellington has been on the Nets for most of his career. Nobody else cares on the team, but he definitely wants to show out against his former team and we know it's very possible. The Nets are just an atrocious defense and Ellington is a lock for 20 if the game remains competitive.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.89 DK - 27.12
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 22.44 DK - 23.26
We've touched on a couple of these Miami guards against the porous Nets defense, but let's get to some options in Brooklyn. Both DeMarre Carroll and Allen Crabbe are seeing 30+ minutes a night and are obviously the guys relied on to score. Neither have seen their price increase and are still way too cheap on both sites for cash games. Carroll 1st. He's the highest-paid guy on the team and who is supposed to be the leader. He seems to just be finding that role for the first time. If you've watched any of the past few games, he's not the same player. He's dictated the ball a lot and is way more involved under the basket than before. As for Crabbe, he's just a tad bit cheaper and a little bit riskier. As a guy that's more reliant on his jumper, he can go from 20-40 with a few streaky 3's. He's a little bit cheaper than Carroll, but you're paying for safety. In a tournament, go with Crabbe and hope he sees Wayne Ellington defense. Neither of these guys are going to kill you and I doubt either bring you to the top of a tournament, but that's fine. They will definitely keep you afloat and hit value if it stays close.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 32.74 DK - 32.3
After those 2 solid value options, this position is pretty bare. Sure, Josh Richardson is fine. Kyle Anderson is "fine". There just aren't many guys that stand out like they do at other positions. We're going to stay towards the top of the position and take a look at Otto Porter Jr., who's somewhat of a weird DFS players. He's the clear number 3 option on this elite Wizards offense and is going to see 10+ shots here, but you just never know where the production will fall. He'll typically keep you above 25 fantasy points in a close game and always has monstrous upside if he gets hot. The Pistons are a good team defense, but especially struggle against small forwards, ranking 22nd in the league. SF is a dumpster fire for them and they'd be lucky to find a guy who can just stay in the lineup without getting injured. Porter is huge for a 3 and will take advantage on the inside against some smaller defenders. With a 209 O/U and just a -1.5 spread, he'll be in there for 32+ and at least get to 20-25 fantasy points. If he gets hot, he's been in the 60's a few times in his short career. At a position without much opportunity cost, I don't see the downside. I do prefer Carroll in cash games, but Crabbe is still behind Porter Jr.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.04 DK - 35
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.07 DK - 29.5
Myles Turner is out once again, so both of these guys step into the forefront at power forward. With Turner missing the last 5 games, Both of these guys have been extremely consistent. With Sabonis, he's getting a much bigger bump. He is now seeing 30+ minutes a night and has gotten up to 33. He's always productive when on the floor and thinks he's just as good as Victor Oladipo. He'll shoot plenty. Thad Young is in a different. boat. He's still in a similar situation to before Turner went out, but has seen his usage go up 2%. He's also picked up an extra 3-4 minutes a night. The Lakers are always a team we want to target with big men as they just don't play defense. Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma, and Larry Nance are all undersized and nothing to worry about. Both Sabonis and Turner are affordable at a position without many options. If you make me pick 1, I think I go Sabonis, but it's close. Young is cheaper and his floor is pretty similar. Let's touch on another guy who's even cheaper and in a great spot.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 20.72 DK - 21.34
Marquees Chriss is out once again, so it’ll be the Dragan Bender show once again at the 4. He’s been at 32+ minutes in 4 straight and while he hasn’t been great in every game, minutes = production. We know he can put up numbers and these past couple games are simply outliers. The Nuggets rank 21st against power forwards on the season and have been worse since Trey Lyles joined the starting lineup. Bender is going to see 30+ minutes and you can’t ignore him under $5k. Bender isn’t in the same tier as Sabonis or Young if Turner is out, but he’s cheaper than both and has a similar floor. He’s a guy that’ll be cemented into most of my cash games, though I understand the fade.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 46.73 DK - 48.61
Center is always an interesting position and we definitely have a few options. Drummond, Whiteside, and WCS are all viable plays and it should balance the ownership out at the position. Our favorite of the bunch is Nikola Jokic, who is in a tremendous spot here against the fast-paced Suns. We have been targeting the Suns all season long with bigs and there's no reason to stop with one of the best in the entire league. Jokic is always a bit inconsistent because of the offense he plays in, but there's always the upside for 70. He's been over 34 minutes recently, which is extremely important for a guy that's usually around 30. He's going to match-up with Tyson Chandler and Alex Len, who are both subpar defenders in every sense of the word. On the season, the Suns rank 25th against Centers. They play faster than anyone in the league and don't have any presence under the rim. Jokic is an elite play in all formats with a floor of 40 and ceiling of 70.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 24.65 DK - 23.37
If Marc Gasol sits, Deyonta Davis is going to slide in and be one of the more popular value plays on the entire slate. He struggled against the Knicks bigs, but played 24 minutes with Gasol out. It’s nothing but a good sign as we know this is a guy who produces when on the floor (1.12 FP per minute). His size will be needed against the Kings and WCS, so expect another 20-30 minutes. At minimum price, you really can’t go wrong. If he has an average game, he’ll end up around 20-22 FP. With a great game, he’s sitting at 30 and making you work elsewhere to match value. Davis is as good of a value as anyone if Gasol is out.
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View Comments
NBA sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
Thanks, Chris, for these sheets you do. I find them extremely helpful!
You are so welcome Diane. Any suggestions of things to add let me know and I will try and get it in there. So happy to help.
Chris, also wanted to say thank you for the sheets. I find them extremely helpful as I typically only roll out one lineup each night across the board (NBA and NHL) and they assist in narrowing down the viable matchups.
Think I might go on a crazy Dragan Bender tonight, if you know what I mean.