Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid in action during an NBA basketball game against the Miami Heat, Monday, Nov. 21, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
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Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 32.47 DK - 34.65
We only have 4 games on tonight's slate and we kick it off with what might be the easiest play of all. Isaiah Thomas finally got over 30 minutes for the first time last game and should only be on the way up from here. His price is nowhere near where it should be at just $5700. Once it corrects, we're looking at an $8k-$9k PG, easily. He is definitely the 2nd fiddle on this offense, but the 2nd fiddle to LeBron can average 25 points without an issue and have plenty of breakout games. Sitting in the mid-$5k's is just laughable and I don't see any reason to avoid him in any format. Even as a worst-case scenario, he'll grab 25-28 minutes and just as many FP. In a best-case, he grabs 34 minutes and 50 fantasy points. The Magic are a subpar team defense that has ranked 24th in the NBA against PG's. Not only is Elfrid Payton a bad defender, but he doesn't have any help at all behind him. Thomas is going to hit value with ease here and should be over 50% owned. It's chalk I'm willing to go with everywhere and just make sure I'm over the field.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 53.1 DK - 55.46
If you’re looking to pay up at the position, there’s definitely an excellent spot to do so. James Harden is expected to return tonight, but will be limited to just 25 minutes. The Rockets will be without Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green, who take up a lot of minutes and shots themselves. Chris Paul has dominated ever since Harden went down with injury and will continue putting up 45+ fantasy points a night. Most people don’t associate him with a high ceiling, but he can get to 70 pretty easily if a game stays close. The T-Wolves are a strong team defense under Thibodeau, but can struggle against PG’s. Teague is the weakest perimeter defender of the 3 and it’s why the T-Wolves rank 19th in the league against PG’s. Paul is going to have a solid game and he makes sense in whatever format you can fit him. There may be better spots to pay up, though, as the value at PG is tough to pass up.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 19.49 DK - 19.77
As we sit, both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart are questionable to play. If either sit, Rozier is in play. If it's Kyrie, he's one of the top value plays on the entire slate. Rozier is already seeing 18-25 minutes a night and would jump up the mid 30's if either of them sits. The match-up against the 76ers is a great one, no matter if it's at the 1 or 2. McConnel and TLC are both subpar defenders and Rozier is no slouch of a backup. He's extremely versatile on the floor and has been close to double-digit rebounds a few times. He's a great scorer and this game is going to have plenty of points (212 total). If both Smart and Irving play, I don't have any interest in Rozier. If both of them sit, Rozier will be in 100% of my lineups. If one of them sits, Rozier will get 32-37 minutes and is right up there with Isaiah Thomas in terms of value. Point guard is a strong position tonight and it's important to pick the right 2.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.84 DK - 27.99
Sure, if you really want to pay up at SG, you can. Victor Oladipo and C.J. McCollum are both in fine spots, but I'd just rather pay up elsewhere. We'll instead look at 2 guys in the mid-range that shouldn't have much issue paying off value. My favorite is Andrew Wiggins. With the Rockets in such a weird spot tonight, I think Wiggins is the guy in the best spot for the T-Wolves. Green and Ariza are suspended, so it'll be P.J. Tucker on Jimmy Butler. That leaves James Harden and Eric Gordon on Andrew Wiggins. With CP3 hovering over Teague, I expect the ball to be in the hands of Wiggins quite a lot. We know Harden and Gordon are bad defenders and don't have much help behind them. Wiggins is still way too cheap on both sites and only needs you about 30 to make you comfortable in cash games. Vegas is yet to drop a line on this game yet, but the total will likely be over 220 and the spread won't be any greater than 5. Wiggins is a phenomenal play in all formats and I'll have extremely close to 100% exposure.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 30.94 DK - 32.04
Evan Fournier is still underpriced on both sites and makes for a great option in all formats at a weak SG position. He's being relied upon as option 2 behind Aaron Gordon and is taking just as many shots. With Nikola Vucevic, out, there are plenty to go around. He's been over 32 minutes in 4 of the last 5 games and hit value in each. The Cavs rank 21st in the league against shooting guards and it makes a lot of sense. LeBron and his incredible defense push a lot of usage towards the other wing where Korver, Smith, and Wade stand. Fournier is a better scorer than any of them are defenders and won't have much issue getting open shots. His price is under $6k on both sites and only needs you about 25 to pay off his salary. If this game stays remotely close, that'll be a cakewalk. His upside is in the 40's if he gets just a little bit hot. Without much opportunity cost at the position, I can't find a reason to stay away from Evan Fournier in cash.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 23.51 DK - 23.46
Let's kick small forward off with one of the easier plays on the entire slate. After the Rockets decided to put a hit out on Austin Rivers following last game, Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green have been suspended. Already seeing 20-30 minutes a night, P.J. Tucker can be locked in for 35+ minutes here with the opportunity for 40+. He may not be the most active player on the floor, but the volume is there and he's been at 0.96 FP per minute on the season. His defense will be necessary for Jimmy Butler and I don't see a way around the previously mentioned 35 minutes. At his price, you're only asking for 18-25 in cash games. He should get there with ease and will get over 30 here in most cases. Jimmy Butler is a good defender, but he'll be on James Harden when he's in the game and certainly not focusing on Tucker. He's a viable option in all formats that will be one of the more popular plays on the entire slate.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.11 DK - 27.45
Getting over 30 minutes in each of the last 2 games, you play Jonathan Simmons at $4500. He is needed as a scorer on this team with Vuc out and should be in the $6k's if he's getting these minutes. He struggled against the Timberwolves last game, but just simply went cold from the field. We know he's a phenomenal scorer and will take 10-15 shots as a minimum. He had a normal performance against the Wizards a game before and finished with 30 fantasy points. He only needs you about 20 in cash games, which makes him close to a must for me. I just think this game stays close and Simmons is going to be able to score. LeBron will start on him, but won't be focusing on Simmons. I would expect LeBron to move over to Gordon and for Wade/Smith to be on Simmons. Small forward has a few great value options, but Simmons is right up there Tucker.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 30.85 DK - 30.68
If you're not needing value at this position, Robert Covington is an extremely solid play in the mid-range. He's been somewhat disappointing, but not really. He's still holding the same 18% usage rate he did last season and has just been a little off from the field. That's not to say he's been horrible. He has still been effective for the most part and especially when given the extra opportunity. Tonight, J.J. Redick has already been ruled out. He doesn't play at the 3, but it will lock Covington into 35+ minutes as long as the game stays close. He'll match-up at the 3 with Jaylen Brown, who's been average on the season. The Celtics rank 16th against small forwards and can be taken advantage of from the outside. Covington is a near-lock for value at his price and has a great shot at going nuts in a tournament. Small forward is an important position on this slate and you'll have to get it right.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.23 DK - 29.4
We'll stay right in Philly with Dario Saric here at the 4. With small forward being one of the best positions, power forward may be the worst. There are certainly some options, but nothing like the other positions. Saric has been excellent as of late and is now getting the minutes to back it up. He's seen 30+ minutes in each of the last 2 and has hit value in 7 straight games. The Celtics are dead average on paper against small forwards with 44.6 FP allowed a night. His price is still low enough on both sites and he'll need you about 30 to make you happy in cash games. Without J.J. Redick playing, Saric will likely slide into the starting lineup. At the very least, he'll see an extra 5 minutes and 5 shots. With him already being a great play, that just puts him over the top. Saric is a solid option in all formats.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.95 DK - 27.35
Steady as can be, Taj Gibson keeps on chugging. He sees 34-38 minutes game in and game out and rarely misses value in solid match-ups. He definitely has one tonight against the Rockets, individually seeing Ryan Anderson and Mbah a Moute. Neither are big enough to cover Gibson in the pain and he'll have no problem putting up his usual numbers. The Rockets play faster than the T-Wolves and will be ready to run with Harden back in the lineup. Gibson is underpriced on both sites and needs you around 25 in cash games. He's often around 35 in close games and this one sets up very nicely. Power forward stinks and I don't think Gibson can do you much damage. He's guaranteed the minutes and we know the Rockets are going to struggle to cover him. At the very least, he's getting 35 minutes in a mismatch. At $5500, I like him in all formats.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.24 DK - 36.31
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 49.2 DK - 50.59
These 2 will face off in a game we've targeted quite a bit already. Neither are great defenders and both are extremely effective on offense. Embiid is the more expensive option and one of 5 players above $10k on FanDuel. He has been over 40 FP in 5 of the last 7 games and has been in some pretty tough match-ups of late. He put up 40 in 30 minutes against the same Celtics team 2 nights ago and can put up 60 if it stays close to 4 quarters. He's an elite option, but I think I would rather have Horford. He's dominated the 76ers already twice this season and fits perfectly into the fast-paced tempo. He's effective from both inside and outside on offense and is going to see the opportunity. He's been getting 34+ minutes a night and it's hard to mess that up against the Sixers. His price is fair on both sites in the $7k's and he'll need to get you around 35 in cash. I like both of these options a ton, but do prefer Horford for the safety and Embiid for the upside.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 45.4 DK - 46.84
If neither of the above float your boat, Karl-Anthony Towns is a phenomenal option. In a game that we've been targeting a lot here, Towns is probably my favorite of the bunch. Andrew Wiggins is right there, but the upside of Towns is unquestioned here. His minutes are locked into 36+ and he'll probably get close to 40 if the game remains close. Clint Capela is a good defensive center, but only right under the rim. If he has to leave the paint, he turns subpar. We know Karl-Anthony Towns is going to score from everywhere on the floor. His price is a bit down on both sites and he'll need you about 45 to make you happy. If the game stays close, I don't see that as much of a problem. I do slightly prefer Al Horford in cash games, but Towns is definitely my favorite tournament option at the position. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below if you have any questions!
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View Comments
NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
Pretty sure Lebron quit playing regular season D years ago... other than that solid article.
all guys from yesterday failed to reach 5X with the exception of Adams who just reached 5X, bazemore by extra 2pts and maybe 1 more by 2pts.
Dudes... not sure why so many of you feel the need to hate on these picks and articles... I make cash with these guys regularly; don't blame the source if you just suck at applying the advice.
It's your lineup, your fault if you lose... if you dislike their picks, then find another source... don't keep coming just to be a troll.
I love the FREE info. Haters will always hate.
Why would you leave out Lebron? He had 76.5 FP. Covington has been underperforming since December.
That was against Orlando those 76.5 FP
No injury update article today?
For me Rozier is a must, Horford solid play. Birch worth a fly for cheap as is J Simmons
Rozier has been bad for 3 games straight. Regression to the mean. He was on fire but hit cold spell 3 games ago. Glad I faded him tonight.