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Welcome back to another exciting season of daily fantasy NASCAR. We are now just 30 days from the 60th running of the Daytona 500 so I wanted to put together a season preview series looking at each team and driver and their average fantasy production on each track type from 2017 and their outlook going into the 2018 season. If you are new to fantasy NASCAR, especially on DraftKings, be sure to check out my strategy article coming out soon covering some basic strategy for cash games and GPP formats.
It was an up and down season for the Team Penske duo of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano in 2017. It started off on a high note when Joey Logano and crew chief Todd Gordon were signed to a long-term contract extension through 2022 and that momentum carried over through the first quarter of the season. Between Logano(8) and Keselowski(7), they had recorded 15 Top 10 finishes but things went downhill for the #22 after post-race inspection following the Richmond win left the team with an encumbered finish and in the end, short of a playoff spot. It was a fantastic year for Wood Brothers Racing as Ryan Blaney, in his second full season, took a giant leap forward not only making the playoffs but getting all the way to the round of 8 before being eliminated. The big off-season news out of the Team Penske camp was the promotion of Ryan Blaney into the seat of the resurrected #12 car as a part of a new three-car team in 2018. The move prompted the Wood Brothers to go out and sign free agent Paul Menard to run the #21 car.
Let's jump in and have a look at how each driver performed across the board in 2017 and their 2018 fantasy outlook.
After getting caught up in a wreck at the Daytona 500 last season, Keselowski went on to pick up a win in Atlanta and then four straight Top 5's before picking up another win in Martinsville. While his regular season was up and down after that with four finishes outside the Top 30 to go along with nine more Top 10's, he made the playoffs, picked up another win at Talladega and went on to join Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Kevin Harvick in the final four at Homestead. He didn't have the speed as the other three in the season's final race but ended up with a 7th place finish and some momentum coming into the 2018 season as he seeks his second career Championship. Let's have a look at his fantasy success at each track type.
Keselowski finished right behind Kyle Busch on the short tracks in 2017 with his win at Martinsville to go along with two other Top 5 finishes and 334 laps led. His only struggles came at Bristol where he finished 34th and 29th and it was really no surprise as it has been one of his worst tracks in his career where he holds a 17.9 average finish.
Keselowski also finished right behind Kyle Busch on 2.5-mile tracks. He didn't pick up a win but was extremely consistent with finishes of 2nd at Indianapolis and 5th both races at Pocono.
He was also consistent on road courses with a 3rd place finish at Sonoma with 17 laps led and 15th at Watkins Glen with 20 laps led. He is getting closer every year to grabbing his first road course win, the only track type he has not yet won on.
Looking at the two-mile tracks, he started the year out great with a runner-up at Fontana but struggled at Michigan with finishes of 16th and 17th(started on the pole).
Brad and the #2 Miller Lite car started the out on fire on the mile and a half tracks with a win in Atlanta followed by three more Top 10 finishes but wrecks at Charlotte and Kentucky(both 39th place finishes) led to a just three Top 10's in the final eight races on the track type.
Brad had four Top 10's in six races on one-mile intermediates but had no wins and led just 39 laps which left him with a below average 36.5 DraftKings per race.
Looking at the restrictor plate races, he was awesome at Talladega with a 7th place finish in May and win in the playoffs but he was terrible at Daytona with finishes of 27th and 31st leaving him with an average of 22.7 DraftKings points per race.
2018 Outlook: I think Brad gets multiple wins once again in 2018 and becomes more consistent overall and consistency needs to be the focus, especially on the mile and a half tracks. While I feel he makes the playoffs, I do not think he will make the final four this year.
After picking up seven Top 10 finishes in his first eight races, Logano picked up a win at Richmond. The only problem is that the #22 car failed post-race inspection leaving that win encumbered and of no use when looking at the playoff picture. He also received a hefty 25 point penalty which was the start of the end to Logano's season as he followed the encumbered win with back to back finishes outside the Top 30 and only recorded two Top 10's in a nice race span. As the end of the regular season closed in, Logano had no chance of making the playoffs on points alone and came oh so close to getting another win in the regular season finale at Richmond but fell one position short. Considering he had an average DraftKings salary of $9,400 in 2017, he was practically unusable in fantasy. Here is a look at his averages on each track type.
Short tracks have been Logano's bread and better in his career as he not only has four wins(tied most of any track type) but also a 14.2 career average finish(3rd best of any track type). This is where he was best utilized for fantasy last season as well as he finished with four Top 5 finishes in six races including the win at Richmond. It was his second career win at Richmond and Logano now has an 11.9 career average finish, his third-best among all NASCAR Cup series tracks. He also has two wins at Bristol but has not been anywhere near as consistent with a 16.6 career average finish which is one of his worst tracks.
He only led one lap on two-mile intermediate tracks last season but did grab Top 5 finishes at both Fontana and Michigan. Joey has been much better over his career at Michigan where he has two wins, 356 laps led and a career 12.9 average finish.
While Logano has just as many wins(4) on intermediate tracks as short tracks, it also comes with twice as many races. He did pick up seven more Top 10's on the mile and a half tracks in 2017 but led just 51 laps and ended up with a +3 place differential overall. Like Keselowski, this is where the biggest improvement will have to come in 2018.
From an average finish standpoint(13.4), the road courses were #1 on the list in 2017 and that isn't saying much as he finished 12th at Sonoma and 24th at Watkins Glen, led zero laps and ended up with a -5 place differential.
Logano started on the pole at Phoenix in March and led 82 laps but had a late-race tire failure and ended up finishing 31st. Those were the only laps he led on one-mile intermediate tracks all year and his Top 10 at New Hampshire in September was his only one on the season. He has had more success on the flat one-mile tracks(New Hampshire, Phoenix) with three career wins while he is still seeking win #1 at Dover.
While he has a win at Pocono in his career, it is one of his worst tracks over his career(17.5 career average finish) and nothing changed in 2017 as he finished 23rd and 27th in the two races. He was, however, once again successful at Indianapolis where he finished 4th and now sits with an 11.7 career average finish, his second best of any track.
With a 17.9 career average finish, restrictor plate tracks have been Logano's worst of any track type. There were some bright spots in 2017 as he finished 6th at the Daytona 500 and 4th at Talladega in October but his other two finishes were outside the Top 30 and he finished with a -40 place differential which is key for the plate tracks.
2018 Outlook: The encumbered win in 2017 seemed to send the #22 backward throughout the rest of the season which leaves a ton of room for improvement. I feel that Team Penske with one more car added to the stable will improve overall with more information and the biggest thing for the #22 will be consistency on the mile and a half tracks. I feel Logano will get back to the playoffs with two wins this season but won't make the final four.
In just his second full season in the Monster Energy Cup Series, Blaney picked up his first career win and a trip to the playoffs. He didn't just make the playoffs but also made it through the first two rounds before getting eliminated in the Round of 8. The success he had with Wood Brothers Racing prompted Roger Penske to bring back the #12 Team Penske car and promote Blaney as the third driver in the stable joining Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Let's take a look at is fantasy performance in 2017.
From year one to year two, Blaney took a big leap forward on the mile and a half tracks. He recorded the same amount of Top 5 finishes(2) but doubled his Top 10's and picked up six in 2017. That was instrumental in decreasing his average finish from 18.3 in 2016 to 13.6 in 2017. The 40.3 DraftKings points per race has a ton to do with the fact he qualified so well in 2017 and ended up with a -32 place differential overall. That average, however, was seventh-best in the series.
Another area Blaney saw a big improvement was the road courses. In 2016, he finished 23rd at Sonoma and 19th at Watkins Glen and this season he finished 9th and 8th for the 8th most DK points per race. That average could have been higher had Blaney not qualified so well and ended up with a +6 place differential overall.
He saw a slight improvement on the two-mile tracks with an average finish of 16.3(18.7 in '16). His best finish was at the start of the year with a 9th at Fontana but was unable to grab a Top 10 at either Michigan race. Qualifying played a big role in his average fantasy output as well as he ended up with a -12 place differential(-19 at the first Michigan race).
The year started out great at the Daytona 500 where Blaney started 36th and finished 2nd while picking up 82 DraftKings points(1st). Things went downhill after that with a 39th at Talladega, 26th at the July Daytona race, and 18th at the Talladega playoff race. He also finished with negative place differential at each of those final three races.
Very similar story on the 2.5-mile tracks as Blaney picked up his first career win at Pocono in June after starting 4th but then struggled in the other two races with a 23rd and 30th place finish after starting 5th and 10th.
Blaney took a step backward on the one-mile tracks in 2017 with an average finish of 20.5 after recording a 14.5 average finish in 2016. The part that really hurt his fantasy value was that he really improved his qualifying starting no worse than 15th in the six races including a pole at the Phoenix race in the playoffs.
While Blaney improved his average finish on the short tracks from 24.7 to 21.7 aided by two Top 10 finishes, he saw his fantasy production drop off big time with a -87 place differential. Same story as a lot of the other tracks as he was one of the top qualifiers on the season and started no worse than 14th on short tracks last season and started inside the Top 10 in five of the six races.
2018 Outlook: Everything points towards Blaney taking a step forward in 2018 as he moves into the #12 Team Penske car to help form the new three-man team with Keselowski and Logano. He will have to become a little more consistent after qualifying to become a strong play in fantasy. I feel he will get another win on 2018, maybe two, and return to the playoffs once again but I don't see him getting past the round of 8 just yet in his career.
It was a disappointing season for Menard in the #27 Richard Childress car as he recorded just three Top 10's and his second-worst average finish(19.6) in his last seven years. Sometimes all a driver needs is some sort of change and Menard will get that in 2018 as he is moving into the #21 car for Wood Brothers Racing. Let's take a look back at his 2017 season and see how he did from a fantasy perspective.
The plate tracks have been his bread and butter throughout his career and he showed it once again in 2017 with three Top 10's and two Top 5 finishes while recording a season-long +57 place differential. The Wood Brothers have always been competitive on the plate tracks so 2018 could be another good year for Menard at Daytona and Talladega.
It was an above average season on the road courses for Menard who finished 11th at Sonoma(started 15th) and 18th at Watkins Glen(started 21st) for a +7 place differential. He ended up with an average of 33 DraftKings points per race which was 11th best in the series.
Menard took a step forward on the short tracks from 2016 to 2017 improving his average finish from 23.7 to 20.7. For fantasy, was an asset to your lineups at a value price as he ended up with a +22 place differential on the season(-30 in 2016).
2017 was Menard's best season on 2.5-mile tracks since 2012 as he has finished the prior four season with at least one finish outside of 30th. Last year he finished inside 20th or better in all three races. He ranked down in the pack when looking at the fantasy numbers, however, as he ended up with just a +2 place differential at the end of the year on the two tracks(3 races).
There was a slight improvement in his mile and half track performance as he went from a 22.3 average finish in 2016 to a 20.8 average finish in 2017 but he failed once again to pick up a Top 10. He picked up double-digit place differential twice in 2017(Chicago & Kansas) but finished the year -10 and ended up 27th overall when looking at average DK points per race.
The one-mile intermediate tracks have been some of the worst tracks of his career(Dover-19.6 average finish, NH- 22.9 average finish, Phoenix-21.1 average finish) and not much changed in 2017. He ended up with just two Top 20 finishes in six races and ended up 27th overall in average DK points per race.
The two-mile intermediate tracks have been some of the best of his career and at one point had a stretch of six straight Top 10's and eight in 10 races from 2012-2015. No such luck in 2017 as he finished 28th at Fontana and 22nd and 34th at Michigan.
2018 Outlook: It has been a rough couple years to end his tenure with Richard Childress Racing but a switch to Wood Brothers Racing could prove to be a positive for Menard. I don't see him getting a win this season but five to 10 Top 10 finishes is definitely not out of the question. If his average salary remains in the $6K range, he will be a value play consideration week in and week out depending on qualifying and place differenital upside.
Stay tuned as the Hendrick Motorsports 2017 review and 2018 outlook article will be out within the next week. If you would like to start researching for the 2018 season, grab a copy of my race by race trends sheet below(click on the pic) showing drives salaries and DraftKings for every race last year as well as average points per track type. Cheers!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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